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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Latest MetOffice update for Severe Weather Warnings - Yellow!

Thursday 25th June -

Issued: 10:16 (UTC+1) on Wed 24 Jun 2020

Thunderstorms may develop across parts of western UK late on Thursday afternoon and into the evening. A larger area of thunderstorms is then expected to move northeastwards overnight into Friday. Many places will miss the worst of the storms but where they do occur torrential downpours could bring 30-40 mm rain in less than two hours. Lightning and hail are also likely to be additional hazards.

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Friday 26th June/Saturday 27th June - 

Issued: 10:14 (UTC+1) on Wed 24 Jun 2020

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to break out on Friday afternoon and evening. Many places will miss the storms, but where they do occur, torrential downpours could bring 30-50mm rain in a hour, with hail and lightning. The storms will slowly clear northeastwards on Friday night, perhaps not clearing northeast Scotland until Saturday morning.

image.thumb.png.7cfda9ed54e724c4f45c776f709b1ff9.png

 

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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks like the metoffice expecting storms further south and west for friday compared to what models are showing!!gfs showing more acroes eastern and northern england!

?? They have separate warnings out for south and west and the north and east of the country so they are expecting storms in the north and east for Friday. More southern and western areas is the focus for Thursday 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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5 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Not often that you get the whole country covered by a warning, even though they are 2 separate ones, it is still good to see!

image.thumb.png.7a4db27b904c8368fa35747d22f7bf83.png

Lol didn't mean to send sticky note.

Original reply:

Met office yellow warning for the whole country, i.e. "We don't have a clue." 

I'm getting frustrated with all this uncertainty. I'm just going to wait and see on the day. 

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Be warned, the matrix is at the lowest probability:

164954317_Screenshot_20200624-103141_SamsungInternet.thumb.png.dced65d5d14c10ccb9d58ae973ffaa12.png

so by the looks of things, they are not sure either for tomorrow night

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Thunderstorms are local by nature. You MIGHT get one. POSSIBLY.  Not even probably. Now I've said that, we'll get an mcs the size of England ?

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I'm just going to guess that the 09z run of the UKV will be pure ?

 

 

Let's see if this reverse psychology thing works...

Edited by Zak M
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4 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Ok..if I live on the line linking the two warnings, not too sure what to think of that? ?

That's the rare occasion that you'll get two storms at the same time. One on top of the other.. ?

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Gfs has higher cape values for friday across england and further west compared to 18z last night!maybe thats why the meto warnings for friday are further west and cover more of england rather than just the north and east!!

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what would really be iconic.. is if we had a thunderstorm today .. then we'd charge all our cameras and cars... (fill them up) tomorrow

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How nice to see a yellow weather warning! 

However (being naturally cautious) I see the dividing line between west and the east warnings runs dangerously close to Reigate. I'm suspicious we will fall between the two warning areas and see no action.

I share Meltedflake's feelings...

(I am kidding....by the way).

Edited by StormLoser
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54 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs has higher cape values for friday across england and further west compared to 18z last night!maybe thats why the meto warnings for friday are further west and cover more of england rather than just the north and east!!

GFS has a problem with the amount of moisture it’s creating so Dew points are too high and so therefore is the CAPE generated. Plus you can have all the CAPE in the world but without in trigger mechanism it’s useless. There are also further complications, any elevated storms in the south west could leave cloud debris behind making it difficult for the parts you mention to warm sufficiently. They’ll probably update the warnings as things become more clear. 

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I really think the Cone and Triangle are safe to push on with their Yearly celebrations of no storms since July 25th 2019 with this upcoming breakdown, I would give both areas only a 5% Chance of seeing a Cg on current modelling.

Thursday Night into Friday late morning looks like SW England, Dorset, Wales and NW England into SW Scotland for the first breakdown, anything that fires in NW France will probably give a few flashes of lightning further east towards Brighton as the eastern extent before turning into a wet thundery mess.

Friday Daytime skies clear after the cloud shield moves away into East Anglia and this sets the stage for M4 Initiation and surface based storms impacting the East Midlands and NE England during Friday.

Have fun in the usual favoured areas

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I really think the Cone and Triangle are safe to push on with their Yearly celebrations of no storms since July 25th 2019 with this upcoming breakdown, I would give both areas only a 5% Chance of seeing a Cg on current modelling.

Thursday Night into Friday late morning looks like SW England, Dorset, Wales and NW England into SW Scotland for the first breakdown, anything that fires in NW France will probably give a few flashes of lightning further east towards Brighton as the eastern extent before turning into a wet thundery mess.

Friday Daytime skies clear after the cloud shield moves away into East Anglia and this sets the stage for M4 Initiation and surface based storms impacting the East Midlands and NE England during Friday.

Have fun in the usual favoured areas

thanks paul, so by the looks of things It wont be severe for my area on thurs night, it will be interesting to see what UKV says etc 

What is dans thoughts on this? 

Edited by viking_smb
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

I really think the Cone and Triangle are safe to push on with their Yearly celebrations of no storms since July 25th 2019 with this upcoming breakdown, I would give both areas only a 5% Chance of seeing a Cg on current modelling.

Thursday Night into Friday late morning looks like SW England, Dorset, Wales and NW England into SW Scotland for the first breakdown, anything that fires in NW France will probably give a few flashes of lightning further east towards Brighton as the eastern extent before turning into a wet thundery mess.

Friday Daytime skies clear after the cloud shield moves away into East Anglia and this sets the stage for M4 Initiation and surface based storms impacting the East Midlands and NE England during Friday.

Have fun in the usual favoured areas

Sadly this is what it’s been looking like to me from the get go and I haven’t seen a huge amount to dissuade me from it. WRF-NMM for example indicates huge amounts of MUCAPE for the SE through the early hours of Friday then through Friday itself, but with initiation from London NE. One huge layer of optimism is that models are notoriously poor with these setups.

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What’s this second area of precip moving up from the south/southwest on Saturday very early morning that the met office is showing? Anything thundery within that?

6C5869C5-AC71-451F-8365-636200FC9FAB.png

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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Just now, Mapantz said:

It would be nice to see some elevated lightning Thursday night in to the turn of Friday, as it'll be my birthday. I fancy sitting under the gazebo with a cider and watching mother nature!

I take it with the elevated stuff you dont hear much thunder am I correct on this? 

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