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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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A nice surprise here in Cardiff too, thought I could hear thunder when I was half asleep... 

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Rumbles of thunder here in shrewsbury just prior to 8am which was a bit of a surprise! 

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SVR out

4315FFB1-EC68-49F3-B03C-B3F4A9C0885D.thumb.png.c28071ab4759427d32b6c091a2aaa957.png

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Severe thunderstorm warning issued

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 Jul 2020

ISSUED 06:53 UTC Mon 27 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A deepening surface low will track northeast across Ireland, southern Scotland / northern England and out to the North Sea on Monday, beneath and to the north of a strong jet stream and on the forward side of a sharpening upper trough. Extensive cloud and outbreaks of rain are expected across many parts of the British Isles, given the high dewpoint airmass (14-17C) and rather saturated profiles. While some pockets of elevated convection, and hence a few isolated lightning strikes, will be possible embedded within broad areas of showery rain, the main focus during this forecast period will be close to the triple point and the area between the cold front and back-bent occlusion (which effectively acts as the true surface cold front, exhibiting the greatest dewpoint gradient and wind veer). Substantial forcing aloft combined with modest surface heating may be sufficient to generate some deep convection in an environment with 30-40kts bulk shear. Forecast profiles exhibit very moist low-levels overlain by marked dry air aloft, albeit with a slight warm nose in the ~600mb layer. If sufficient breaks in the cloud can allow insolation to lift surface temperatures to nearer 18-20C, then this may be able to pass the warm nose.

Regardless, should deep convection develop, the environment would be supportive for organisation (perhaps even a low-topped supercell). Relatively low cloud bases and strong low-level shear, with somewhat backed surface winds, suggests the risk of an isolated tornado. The main risk zone/period is from eastern Ireland during the morning, transferring eastwards to northern England / north Wales / northern Midlands from late morning and into the afternoon hours. A SVR has been introduced for the risk of an isolated tornado - while some hail may be possible, it is unlikely to be severe and with showers/storms moving fairly quickly in the strong flow aloft this should also limit the flash flood risk too. 

Some sporadic lightning may be possible from one or two cells that become organised, and while individual cells may be long-lasting, aside from this risk lightning will probably not be too widespread given rather skinny CAPE (and concerns over cloud cover, which may inhibit any substantial convection from developing in either case!). Tentatively issued a low-end SLGT, but it is possible many areas within this region may be void of lightning. Additional showers are likely farther south during the afternoon, but within the SMZ the depth of convection will likely be too shallow for lightning.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-07-27

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Posted (edited)

Thunder here - that was totally unexpected!!!

Really loud but fairly distant booms!

edit - wow that was an intense positive flash! Best thunder I’ve heard all year!!! And I’ve got friends and my bf texting me across W and N Kent about it - that’s how loud it is. Awesome.

Edited by Harry
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3 minutes ago, Harry said:

Thunder here - that was totally unexpected!!!

Really loud but fairly distant booms!

Just had a rather soft breakfast rumble in bromley

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Cool to wake up to a bit of activity down in the SE! 

19C986B8-D215-436F-ACC2-8343C43FC5CA.jpeg

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image.thumb.png.42be887ab1b359999f922e89c71be7e4.pngimage.thumb.png.58b6e28b1cc983f30e1c596f9df5f249.png

You wouldn't think it'd be that thundery looking at radar. Might hear a few rumbles here today then.

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1 minute ago, anything-but said:

Now, that was pretty close! 

It’s definitely a CG rich storm that’s for sure.

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Shouldn’t have looked this far ahead 🤦‍♂️ Kent clipper inbound for friday night possibly

5CBCAB96-7012-450B-9E9E-A0955681116E.png

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The Cone evaporated that little storm that dared to penetrate the force - All quiet now and back to normal dreich

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4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

The Cone evaporated that little storm that dared to penetrate the force - All quiet now and back to normal dreich

come to mine....ill get you a pint whilst wtiting for Tubes!

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1 minute ago, ItIsGee said:

come to mine....ill get you a pint whilst wtiting for Tubes!

Get back to work - Its better than busting everytime 😄

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9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Get back to work - Its better than busting everytime 😄

check you out using words that you dont understand...!!!

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Posted (edited)

Flash of lightning and rumble of thunder.

At least this makes July not being the only summer month without some thunder or lightning.

image.thumb.png.b83c1d9367869246409065ed8317bca3.png

 

 

Edited by Jamiee
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What's with all the activity down south?! 🧐

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12 minutes ago, Zak M said:

What's with all the activity down south?! 🧐

Pockets of elevated convection in the warm advection regime - judging by satellite and radiosonde data, the convection probably wasn't that deep but went up in a hurry...

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GFS runs over the last day have been pretty consistent for Friday night, but ideally I think many of us would like it to be much further west as it currently screams 'Kent Clipper.'

The 6z:
 

Capture.PNG

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2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

GFS runs over the last day have been pretty consistent for Friday night, but ideally I think many of us would like it to be much further west as it currently screams 'Kent Clipper.'

The 6z:
 

Capture.PNG

Do you like the WRF-NMM by any chance? 😁

nmm-1-120-0.png

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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Do you like the WRF-NMM by any chance? 😁

nmm-1-120-0.png

Very similar to GFS! I see ICON and GEM still break things out further west. I'm guessing the usual will apply and it won't be until at least Thursday we have a better guide.

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22 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Pockets of elevated convection in the warm advection regime - judging by satellite and radiosonde data, the convection probably wasn't that deep but went up in a hurry...

Thanks for the explanation. Working outside in Trowbridge from 06.45 the sky looked anything but thundery due to a lot of low cloud but the rain was very convective with brief massive spotted downpours as presumably the CBS and moved over. Only heard one rumble but it was very surprising.

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