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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

Feeding off scraps this year- my one and only shot and even seen bolt of lightning in 2020...  looking North towards Huntingdon yesterday.

Screenshot_20200726-082900_Gallery.jpg

Edited by James1979
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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 26 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 27 Jul 2020

ISSUED 07:45 UTC Sun 26 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A front drifting northeastwards across Scotland on Sunday will produce some showery outbreaks of rain, and perhaps a few isolated lightning strikes - more especially towards the NE (15% chance). A few scattered showers are likely elsewhere, but too shallow in depth for lightning activity.

Overnight the next Atlantic low pressure will arrive, with frontal rain spreading across Ireland into central and southern Britain. This may contain some embedded elevated convection, and so there is a rather low risk (5-10%) of a few isolated lightning strikes.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-07-26

 

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another disappointment yet again with just my area getting heavy rain thought the day, i really hope some day this summer we get a decent storm.

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367 Days since I last saw Lightning at Night in SE Essex which is quite frankly appalling, and if you said to me 10 years ago that it was possible to go from the 25th July 2019 all the way through August and September 2019 along with May, June and July of 2020 without even seeing a flash of lightning then I would have laughed at you.

Incredible pattern shift going on in the SE of England these days and one that needs looking into really. If anyone is doing a dissitation for a Met Degree it would be a great subject matter.

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

367 Days since I last saw Lightning at Night in SE Essex which is quite frankly appalling, and if you said to me 10 years ago that it was possible to go from the 25th July 2019 all the way through August and September 2019 along with May, June and July of 2020 without even seeing a flash of lightning then I would have laughed at you.

Incredible pattern shift going on in the SE of England these days and one that needs looking into really. If anyone is doing a dissitation for a Met Degree it would be a great subject matter.

usually the south east gets the storms, might be mother nature just having a funny turn. 

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9 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Yay looked at it looks like a plume probably won't happen though

Yes it will, think positive lol, one of has got to happen surely, really quite surprised I've only had one storm all year, first storm in Dover is normally around January lol. 

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13 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Yay looked at it looks like a plume probably won't happen though

So what’s there to worry about? Nothing has happened so far anyway 🤷‍♂️

may as well expect the unexpected 🙂

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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It's nice to be going into a new week with a least a sniff of a plume towards its end. 

So far it's been a case of nearly-plumes this year and to go a July without one making it would be most unusual. 

No pressure, Friday night.

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The plume is looking likely to happen at the end of this week into next.

It's the question of whether any sparks can be lit and if anything from France makes it to the UK & doesn't fail on us like early on this year.

I have low hopes on the storm front but it could very well hit 30°C into the start of August.

You just have to have the right balance of hoping & being ready for disappointment.

This year has been full of disappointment anyway so we're already trained for that.

1888426021_collage(2).thumb.png.7425bf3b717de81e144fa6f330316b0b.png

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Still too early for details but as per above ECM looks good for some storms fri night / Sat.   PS when people refer to ‘Windy’. They do realise this is just an app for viewing models. You can select which model you want to view, below for example is ECM 

 

5FA34F80-F1DF-4EFF-94D2-8CF9F7267061.jpeg

CCFE869D-C60C-4538-AED9-6B5297DBCA8F.jpeg

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37 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Friday into Saturday is starting to catch my eye. A long way to go yet still.

We’ll see what the high resolution models start showing by mid week.

 

GFS 12z was a bit more bullish about it than its last few runs, whereas ECM has quite a weak plume showing. Across all models over the last couple days, it's occasionally been shown as nothing more than a weak Kent Clipper. 

Hopefully the pub run builds upon the 12z. 

Edited by Lance M
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Still a long way off as other members have mentioned, but here is the GFS, GEM @126, and the ICON @120

gfseuw-2-126.thumb.png.5f66d832a012b47b93c48829360c28ca.png   gemeuw-2-126.thumb.png.fdb4c335e240d40ce2ca4d58567be3b9.png   iconeu_euw-1-120-0.thumb.png.48727aa660c547992db5887617b6f7d9.png

GFS goes for the Kent clipper scenario, whereas both the GEM and ICON have the storms initiating further SW and more central southern/eastern regions being affected.

Got to be reminded though that this is still ages away and I don't expect there to be any agreement yet - just showing what some models have on offer for that day. I expect the models will become clearer on when and where the storms (if any) initiate in a few days time.

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29 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Still a long way off as other members have mentioned, but here is the GFS, GEM @126, and the ICON @120

gfseuw-2-126.thumb.png.5f66d832a012b47b93c48829360c28ca.png   gemeuw-2-126.thumb.png.fdb4c335e240d40ce2ca4d58567be3b9.png   iconeu_euw-1-120-0.thumb.png.48727aa660c547992db5887617b6f7d9.png

GFS goes for the Kent clipper scenario, whereas both the GEM and ICON have the storms initiating further SW and more central southern/eastern regions being affected.

Got to be reminded though that this is still ages away and I don't expect there to be any agreement yet - just showing what some models have on offer for that day. I expect the models will become clearer on when and where the storms (if any) initiate in a few days time.

Thanks Zak. Encouraging to see a spread of at least 100 miles at this time rather than just Kent Clippers!

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1 hour ago, Charlie Harnett said:

A suprise

Screenshot_20200726-232410_Samsung Internet.jpg

@Paul Sherman  mentioned earlier it looks good for these areas,  l didn't think it would look this good.  Hope it holds off till mid afternoon after I've finished work.

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