North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

Hi all,

Long time lurker here just popping in to say hello. 
 

Drove to Buxton today to see some proper snow and it didn’t disappoint, had a lovely walk up from Poole’s Cavern through the country park. Driving home was a bit tricky, the A6 was a mess through Dove Holes, and there was a very impressive covering through Chapel, Whaley and even more modest altitudes like New Mills and Disley. The lying snow line was just below High Lane, once into Hazel Grove no lying snow whatsoever. 
 

All good fun and lovely to see. 

[Had Worse]

Snowing again

[frosty ground]

Rain here now after 2-3 inches of snow

more Than enough for a snow man with the little one 

[WillinGlossop]

10 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Snowing again

Snap just saw it is again... looks heavy stuff to come on radar
really big snowflakes... like clumps of snow beautiful 

Edited December 4, 2020 by WillinGlossop

[shadowfax]

Driving from Todmorden back to Bacup at about 11am today. This is about 1200 ft asl

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, WillinGlossop said:

Garmisch-Partenkirchen

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Hi all,

Long time lurker here just popping in to say hello. 
 

Drove to Buxton today to see some proper snow and it didn’t disappoint, had a lovely walk up from Poole’s Cavern through the country park. Driving home was a bit tricky, the A6 was a mess through Dove Holes, and there was a very impressive covering through Chapel, Whaley and even more modest altitudes like New Mills and Disley. The lying snow line was just below High Lane, once into Hazel Grove no lying snow whatsoever. 
 

All good fun and lovely to see. 

Good effort

[iand61]

35 minutes ago, shadowfax said:

Driving from Todmorden back to Bacup at about 11am today. This is about 1200 ft asl

Bet it got worse in the afternoon after the heavier stuff set in again.

I have to say after years of driving up that 4 x 4 track it’s great to see how smooth it is after the resurfacing.

[shadowfax]

24 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Bet it got worse in the afternoon after the heavier stuff set in again.

I have to say after years of driving up that 4 x 4 track it’s great to see how smooth it is after the resurfacing.

But will the surface last. It gets such a hammering from the weather

[Day 10]

Cracking pics guys, let's hope that's just a little taster before a proper cold snowy spell settles in for everybody to enjoy over Christmas.

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, shadowfax said:

But will the surface last. It gets such a hammering from the weather

Probably not and if the weather doesn’t ruin it no doubt roadworks will do

[Iceaxecrampon]

26 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Cracking pics guys, let's hope that's just a little taster before a proper cold snowy spell settles in for everybody to enjoy over Christmas.

Yes some excellent pics  - good to see something so early and seasonal.

The models were so accurate last week in predicting the Easterly pivot meeting a Northern flow.

All eyes on the next round of GFS ECM Blah Blah Blah (2112) or whatever your favoured meteorological  software is.

 

[damianslaw]

Good to see lots of reports of snow down to relatively low levels, seems Pennine areas did best Greater Manchester and Peak District. Looking at the radar, the key reason was evaporative cooling these areas saw heavy precipitation, alas here we had only light precipitation and it was breaking up, so we just ended up with rain. 15 miles north and there was a good 3 inches. How it goes sometimes..

[gse999r]

Amazing walk up to Wild Bank Hill near Millbrook today. Had around 3 inches with more drifting on the tops.

[Frost HoIIow]

Looks like staying chilly until probably next Thursday now. Any mild weather keeps getting pushed back (which is often a good omen). Surface cold could get stronger & further wintry surprises might pop up. Ok it's not 2010 but let's face it that year early & late would be difficult to compete against, it was a superb year for cold & snow but to the here & now I can think of worse beginnings to Winter. We're not staring down the barrel of SWly muck or a boring euro high that can be parked there for weeks on end.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Looks like staying chilly until probably next Thursday now. Any mild weather keeps getting pushed back (which is often a good omen). Surface cold could get stronger & further wintry surprises might pop up. Ok it's not 2010 but let's face it that year early & late would be difficult to compete against, it was a superb year for cold & snow but to the here & now I can think of worse beginnings to Winter. We're not staring down the barrel of SWly muck or a boring euro high that can be parked there for weeks on end.

Yes charts have a Dec 2017 look about them for next week, in 2017 we had sliders which delivered snow for some. However, on this occasion Atlantic looks much weaker and we have a major Russian block in the mix and a different north hemisphere profile. As long as heights stay relatively low over S Europe any azores high ridge will struggle to settle to the south, and we keep those balmy SW winds away. Keep them away until well forever I say, they are the enemy for here, endless dank gunk..whatever the time of year uniform temps milder nights in winter than summer it seems!

[Weather-history]

Who writes the Met Office text forecasts?

A fine and dry day with sunny spells.

Today:

A largely dry morning with early cloud clearing to sunny spells. The dry weather will persist across the region into the afternoon. Light winds. Feeling cold.

This was posted at 4am.

Has no one looked at the radar?

[severe snowstorm]

32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Who writes the Met Office text forecasts?

A fine and dry day with sunny spells.

Today:

A largely dry morning with early cloud clearing to sunny spells. The dry weather will persist across the region into the afternoon. Light winds. Feeling cold.

This was posted at 4am.

Has no one looked at the radar?

Yes, chucking it down with rain here. That kind of 'dry'...! I am never critical of the metoffice when forecasts are wrong. After all, it's a prediction, but how is it possible to be so wrong on current conditions happening at the time? It's not the first time they have been totally wrong with nowcasts in recent times, and is a tad sloppy to be honest. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Dexter

[dodge]

BBC seemed very bullish about the Atlantic winning through from midweek...mmm...it might do eventually (doesn't it always) but it won't be a steamroller effect, and there could be a few more wintery surprises as it goes through it's attempts to break through.  Just surprised the BBC seemed all matter-of-fact about it.

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Yes, chucking it down with rain here. That kind of 'dry'...! I am never critical of the metoffice when forecasts are wrong. After all, it's a prediction, but how is it possible to be so wrong on current conditions happening at the time? It's not the first time they have been totally wrong with nowcasts in recent times, and is a tad sloppy to be honest. 

The problem looks as though they over relied on their precipt prediction charts and not looked at the radar itself. They only have to look at the radar at 3.30 am and see the text forecast they were going to issue was in trouble. They could have said any showery outbreaks should clear as morning progresses. 

 

 

[carl1980]

Very wet on the way to work, sleet on the car windscreen

[severe snowstorm]

11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The problem looks as though they over relied on their precipt prediction charts and not looked at the radar itself. They only have to look at the radar at 3.30 am and see the text forecast they were going to issue was in trouble. They could have said any showery outbreaks should clear as morning progresses. 

 

 

Yes, I agree. The text forecast is supposed to include human input and interpretation of the model, which you might expect would at least also include a quick glance at the radar and satellite pictures etc for verification of current conditions, or conditions likely in the next few hours or so. They don't help themselves sometimes, that's for sure.

[iand61]

No more snow overnight but little in the way of melt either so we still have a slight covering on the usual suspects such as grass and decking.

off out for my Saturday morning walk shortly, hopefully there will be at least a covering of “whitish” slush higher up the hill.

[Day 10]

9 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Looks like staying chilly until probably next Thursday now. Any mild weather keeps getting pushed back (which is often a good omen). Surface cold could get stronger & further wintry surprises might pop up. Ok it's not 2010 but let's face it that year early & late would be difficult to compete against, it was a superb year for cold & snow but to the here & now I can think of worse beginnings to Winter. We're not staring down the barrel of SWly muck or a boring euro high that can be parked there for weeks on end.

Fully agree. Many good old cold Winters begin like this as you'll be aware small hints here and there early on until the dice fall right, and then the cold truly breaks through, then boom real Winter. The early evidence suggests we could see a proper Winter spell this season, it's a slow burner (a cold one). It wouldn't surprise me if by Christmas or just after we are in or staring down the barrel of a proper cold spell.

Decent UKMO this morning, Scandi high trying to form.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Day 10

[A Face like Thunder]

2 hours ago, Dexter said:

Yes, chucking it down with rain here. That kind of 'dry'...! I am never critical of the metoffice when forecasts are wrong. After all, it's a prediction, but how is it possible to be so wrong on current conditions happening at the time? It's not the first time they have been totally wrong with nowcasts in recent times, and is a tad sloppy to be honest. 

Totally agree. At least it's stopped raining here in S Cheshire and it's brightened up a little, a bit like heavy rain clearing away as a front moves through.