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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC still very warm at 120 as the trough begins to move in...

    Will storms be on the menu ?

    ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.0a54a5a425e4d7334f437696a5217386.png

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Still hot in the SE saturday on 12z EC...

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.bb27542b5d194e431f44a70bc915f5d3.png

    Aye, decent day that, hopefully GFS is wrong

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Hot Friday for many on ECM 12z

    74751BB9-B7A0-4535-9BC8-3EB5CBA737C4.thumb.png.dd14da7dc4b4e05a04f0dcb208040138.png

    Still very warm in E/SE on Saturday.

    FC294C4B-AF67-442A-BED6-2A900E0DB015.thumb.png.3ce129b9c3d15ec54b44419bf3d406ec.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Hot Friday for many on ECM 12z

    74751BB9-B7A0-4535-9BC8-3EB5CBA737C4.thumb.png.dd14da7dc4b4e05a04f0dcb208040138.png

    Still very warm in E/SE on Saturday.

    FC294C4B-AF67-442A-BED6-2A900E0DB015.thumb.png.3ce129b9c3d15ec54b44419bf3d406ec.png

    A couple of decent days look locked in for the south with warm temperatures approaching 32c.  Next weekend could bring a substantial change or just a blip. It's currently up in the air depending which model you favour.  

     

     

     

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    T192, what we want to see, the re-ridge!

    image.thumb.jpg.187d78d6810241fe9f0b4a5a66f53bd4.jpg

    What an incredible turnaround on the ECM, BANK!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    T192, what we want to see, the re-ridge!

    image.thumb.jpg.187d78d6810241fe9f0b4a5a66f53bd4.jpg

    Yes, despite polar profile being blocked. Seems it matters more when Icelandic low is gone.

    4DC21D4C-7190-4787-8022-E64AA1554F24.thumb.png.c07274fb2aab29d2c538061cca21a06a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    This could end up being a stonker...

    ECM1-216.thumb.gif.4944f56bf1b1e31b7a8c6a9f797caf0c.gif   ECM0-216.thumb.gif.f25a45b567b32dd9943ec8bcfa922854.gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    ECM ends with low pressure to the NW, so still pretty decent to the South. Country file forecast looks good, they think Friday could be the hottest day in the SE.. Worth remembering these hot spells can linger for longer than the models suggest, also just mentioned by Nick Miller. So it wouldn't be a major suprise if this heat continues into next Weekend... Enjoy folks the nights are gonna be murder though. Your goona need a separate electricity circuit just for ya cooling fans.. ?

    ECM1-240.gif

    tumblr_nlq6qvZfVl1tv4k5po1_500.gif

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020062112_74_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020062112_99_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020062112_123_18_1.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
    10 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    564 dam in the north of Scotland..now there’s something you don’t / won’t see very often!!..what a week we have ahead of us..☀️??️??

    5CA02C85-C1EA-41A3-9BD0-79A85CE9293D.thumb.png.df1cba4ceaa092c2b89f6ec4dede2242.pngC7FD625E-BE22-43A4-901E-B59B6778DD7F.thumb.jpeg.8effc39ab14cb7df26e824a3c79347e8.jpeg

     

    A good week for the south, backed up by the Countryfile weekly weather. Nothing but average further north, backed up by the models. I guess usual summer weather resumes for the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Looks like Friday could end up being the hottest day in NW England as well if the ECM is correct. Really not buying what the GFS is showing regarding a Friday breakdown.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    ECM brings out 3 very hot days even for Manchester potentially one of those days could touch 30C in our part of the forest (fingers crossed). ?

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    I don’t think the gfs is correct for Friday, I’m sure every user on this forum knows that the gfs is over bullish to break things down, I think we will see it fall in line with the ecm model which usually proves more useful when it comes to this type of set up 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I notice that Arpege is now showing some really impressive temps for next week, 34c in London by Thursday afternoon and well into the 30's for many places. Looks like we are going to hit the 30c somewhere in England for four days on a trot, Tuesday to Friday.

    It's going to feel pretty sticky and uncomfortable though as the temperatures soar.arpegeuk-41-75-0.thumb.png.520ae966ff2c85826c5459763fa0b2b8.png

    arpegeuk-41-51-0.thumb.png.44186ea8c73a3a25616809fc92c316a8.png

    arpegeuk-41-99-0.thumb.png.c30672c3e97edacd478b14e1dfcb23d6.png

    images-1.thumb.jpg.8e700a4e2794a608163a823049c17275.jpg

    ?

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, snowray said:

    I notice that Arpege is now showing some really impressive temps for next week, 34c in London by Thursday afternoon and well into the 30's for many places. Looks like we are going to hit the 30c somewhere in England for four days on a trot, Tuesday to Friday.

    It's going to feel pretty sticky and uncomfortable though as the temperatures soar.arpegeuk-41-75-0.thumb.png.520ae966ff2c85826c5459763fa0b2b8.png

    arpegeuk-41-51-0.thumb.png.44186ea8c73a3a25616809fc92c316a8.png

    arpegeuk-41-99-0.thumb.png.c30672c3e97edacd478b14e1dfcb23d6.png

    images-1.thumb.jpg.8e700a4e2794a608163a823049c17275.jpg

    ?

     

     

    It looks totally out for other parts of the country though- find it hard to believe it's going to be 19C around here on Thursday...very SE biased!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Just an hunch. I have a very very strong feeling 40oC could be breached at some point in the south this summer between now and August the 31st. Day 10 on ECM as +28 850hpa in Northern Spain. Only takes the correct movements and +20 850s could easily make it to the south coast. One to watch. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, snowray said:

    I notice that Arpege is now showing some really impressive temps for next week, 34c in London by Thursday afternoon and well into the 30's for many places. Looks like we are going to hit the 30c somewhere in England for four days on a trot, Tuesday to Friday.

    It's going to feel pretty sticky and uncomfortable though as the temperatures soar.arpegeuk-41-75-0.thumb.png.520ae966ff2c85826c5459763fa0b2b8.png

    arpegeuk-41-51-0.thumb.png.44186ea8c73a3a25616809fc92c316a8.png

    arpegeuk-41-99-0.thumb.png.c30672c3e97edacd478b14e1dfcb23d6.png

    images-1.thumb.jpg.8e700a4e2794a608163a823049c17275.jpg

    ?

    That reminds of when, in 1975, the late Jack Scott was saying that, on average, somewhere in England would reach/exceed 32C about once in any three-year period...:oldgrin:

    How things have changed!?

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    It looks totally out for other parts of the country though- find it hard to believe it's going to be 19C around here on Thursday...very SE biased!

    I would agree with you there, GFS probably closer to the mark, plus a few extra degrees for afternoon max temps around 5pm.

     

    96-580UK.gif

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