Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No I think both GEM and ECM were outliers.  Let's see what the socially distanced pub run shows...

Well if it’s 2-2 we need a knockout decider on the 12z .So I bring to you the marvellous and the fantastic Mighty mighty Navgem. Charts are 144 hrs and 180hrs 

 

edit the next 2 charts are wrong way around .

 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Leo97t]

GFS raws show 27C in London on Tuesday - maybe 29/30 achieved. It would be weird for it to be wrong at this range but it probably will be

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T120:

Ridge scenario winning out on this run, and also on the percentage of runs headed this way, I think...

[Ice Day]

The GFS 18z looking very nice out to 144.  Whilst the pub run has never decided anything, it's good to see it follow the theme of the 12z's

If anything, I think it's any improvement from this afternoon's run at this point.  Warm week ahead coming up!?

[sheikhy]

Good 18z again!ecm out on its own!!

[Ice Day]

To be fair, good consistency on the last two GFS runs out to 174 (18z on the left)

 

I'd take this run in a heartbeat, warm days and cool nights.  Triffic!!!

Edited June 12, 2020 by Ice Day

[Zak M]

Mmmm... I am liking the looks of that

[Don]

2 hours ago, Ice Day said:

To be fair, good consistency on the last two GFS runs out to 174 (18z on the left)

 

I'd take this run in a heartbeat, warm days and cool nights.  Triffic!!!

Ideal situation.  Get to enjoy warm days, whilst enjoying a good nights sleep!

[NApplewhite]

5 hours ago, Don said:

Ideal situation.  Get to enjoy warm days, whilst enjoying a good nights sleep!

Very unsettled with deep areas of low pressure over the UK towards the end of June ! Plenty more rain on the way 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Very unsettled with deep areas of low pressure over the UK towards the end of June ! Plenty more rain on the way 

Always a good idea to post a chart 14 days away and profess that it’s going to happen... 

[mb018538]

ECM still won’t shift that upper vortex out quickly, so again it’s a wet run next week and not massively warm - top temps back to 20c by Thursday/Friday

[mb018538]

ECM very unsettled again this morning at day 9, with low pressure parked over the UK. By contrast, the GFS is still very warm and settled at the same time - though is a bit of a settled outlier. ECM really going all guns for this more unsettled outlook, UKMO still looks decent out to day 6. What a mess!

[Scorcher]

Has there ever been a more frustrating time for summer model watching? There just never seems to be any clarity at the moment, even 3 or 4 days out.

Maybe this evening we will get some agreement either way, but I'm not holding my breath!  The contrast between the GFS and ECM this morning is huge again.

The one positive is that it's the ECM that seems to have been all over the place the last few days. The GFS has actually been a lot more consistent with its output. Fingers crossed it's correct!

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 00Z looks like a stonker, to me; plenty of warm, sunny weather, and with convective fun-and-games to boot!

    

    

    

    

    

And the GEFS ens: T850s/2m temps are good, all the way; SLP okay, all the way; more rain could do with being on the op, however:

    

    

And the NH profiles are splendid:

    

    

So, I do hope that not too many lurkers/guests were taken-in by all the talk of 'locked-in cold' and a 2012 redux...Nothing could be further from the truth!

 

[Ice Day]

UKMO / GFS / ECM at 144

  

Looking at the GEM & ICON, I would say the GEM is close to the ECM and ICON more akin to GFS/UKMO.  It will be interesting to see whether the ECM was an outlier again?

 

So we have UKMO, GFS and ICON vs the ECM and GEM.  Place your bets!

 

[bluearmy]

This doesn’t get any easier but the general message is that unlike the last couple months, the outlook seems to be getting worse rather than better when the fork in the road approaches ......

But there is another fork approaching ...........

Edited June 13, 2020 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

Well, i am often reminded of the term sods law when sat looking at NWP with a coffee in hand...

And again im getting that sods law feeling, in that be it winter or summer whichever model shows the least desirable outcome for cold (winter) or warmth (summer) overwhelmingly proves to be correct.

Conjecture and superstition aside UKMO and GFS both look much better than EC at 144 again this morning.Clearly the experts at Exeter and the BBC are suggesting EC is going to be correct with the collapsing ridge.

We await the clusters etc but if i were a betting man i have to say  reluctantly,my money would be on the low pressure to be incoming by next weekend.

Hope i am wrong !!

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This doesn’t get any easier but the general message is that unlike the last couple months, the outlook seems to be getting worse rather than better when the fork in the road approaches ......

But there is another fork approaching ...........

Looks that way to me too @bluearmy. Last week of June is potentially looking very dicey. One last chance of salvation on the ecm last night..

.

Clusters were split 55/45 on trough over the UK or sinking south with a ridge over the top. Cluster 1 would be dreadful and take ages to shift.

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, i am often reminded of the term sods law when sat looking at NWP with a coffee in hand...

And again im getting that sods law feeling, in that be it winter or summer whichever model shows the least desirable outcome for cold (winter) or warmth (summer) overwhelmingly proves to be correct.

Conjecture and superstition aside UKMO and GFS both look much better than EC at 144 again this morning.Clearly the experts at Exeter and the BBC are suggesting EC is going to be correct with the collapsing ridge.

We await the clusters etc but if i were a betting man i have to say  reluctantly,my money would be on the low pressure to be incoming by next weekend.

Hope i am wrong !!

I would say ECM is highly likely to be correct merely because it’s the worst outcome for us! Sadly, crud weather is our default option and any model that shows it has a higher chance of being correct.

Maybe the background signals won’t save this month after all?

Edited June 13, 2020 by Djdazzle

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks that way to me too @bluearmy. Last week of June is potentially looking very dicey. One last chance of salvation on the ecm last night..

.

Clusters were split 55/45 on trough over the UK or sinking south with a ridge over the top. Cluster 1 would be dreadful and take ages to shift.

UKMO and GFS would probably fall into cluster 2...

EC det like a dog with a bone for cluster 1.

We await the mean/clusters this morning ...:)

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO and GFS would probably fall into cluster 2...

EC det like a dog with a bone for cluster 1.

We await the mean/clusters this morning ...:)

 

Personally, I suspect that we'll have something of a repeat of the recent shenanigans: not as wonderful as those of us with a glass half-full were hoping for; nowhere near as bad as what the synoptic soothsayers were predicting... Ergo, hopes for either a 2012 or a 2018 redux are firmly in-line for immediate defenestration!

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks OK but i would suggest there are plenty in the suite following the op,perhaps the op will be one of the most pessimistic regarding the trough but the direction of travel looks solid at 144 on the mean.

[Ice Day]

Outlier at days 9 and 10, otherwise tight clustering to 168, the ECM is being steadfast.  Right, time to enjoy the gorgeous weather out there today, back tonight for the next gripping instalment!

[mb018538]

 

Massive outlier again - mean is much better as @Ice Day states above. How very unhelpful!

[Guest]

So it’s now been about two weeks since the breakdown of the fine spring weather was accurately cottoned onto by the models, since then FI has effectively been 96-120hrs and a situation we are still in. It’s the ECM verses GFS & UKMO again this morning but having seen GFS fail on settling things down twice now I’m firmly backing the ECM. Hopefully the longer term dominant cluster doesn’t transpire otherwise we could be waving goodbye to the first half of summer (that’s could, not me accurately writing it off) until then it’s a case of hoping for some sun and maybe a thundery shower to keep me interested.