Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[snowray]

53 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Maybe the pubs have opened unexpectedly and the ICON is taking advantage!

Must be....Or it's been on the Special Brew, I noticed its on special offer right now at Morrisons!

GFS not quite as good as the icon at T120, an improvement though compared to 12z.

Edited June 11, 2020 by snowray

[northwestsnow]

GFS looking very good as we move past  the weekend,Azores high beginning to become more and more noticable on NWP products...

Hoping this is maintained in the morning...

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looking very good as we move past  the weekend,Azores high beginning to become more and more noticable on NWP products...

Hoping this is maintained in the morning...

Massive improvement, as you say though, will it still be there in the morning?

 

[Singularity]

So... that happened. Very interesting to see two models make a very similar adjustment toward a better-defined trough to the SE of the UK that serves to bring us more of the warm easterlies and then works in tandem with more of a ridge from the mid-Atlantic for good measure.

Lets see what happens with ECM and UKMO tomorrow. We seem to be dealing with one of the least predictable weeks in the history of model watching... great fun if you don’t get hung up on particular solutions. Terrible if you’ve got 4-7 day forecasts to put together - I’m real glad that’s not a regular part of my job anymore! 

[Zak M]

Blimey! Not too sure where that came from, but I'm liking the looks of this!!

[Rocheydub]

If only we had plane data...

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z is okay until Day 7, after which it develops a bit of a wobble, and cooler, fresher air comes in from the west. But it's nae bad overall:

    

    

    

    

Unfortunately, the ens are stuck at 18Z. So, no help there.

[swfc]

Ec looks fine to me this morning .decent weeks weather after the weekend

[Leo97t]

GEFS mean couldn't be more different from 18z to this morning 00z at day 10 

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, swfc said:

Ec looks fine to me this morning .decent weeks weather after the weekend

Looks decent enough - even at day 10 it looks fairly quiet still, though a trough is sweeping through from the day previous.

 

Looks Oslo is the place to be the next 2 weeks....25-30c and sunny every day!

Edited June 12, 2020 by mb018538

[northwestsnow]

The blocking to the NE looks pretty robust, after today, sunshine and showers looks a good shout for many, obviously variations across the UK but Manchester for example is low 20s most days in the outlook, hopefully the wind will die back and it will feel pleasant out there...

 

 

[Scorcher]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The blocking to the NE looks pretty robust, after today, sunshine and showers looks a good shout for many, obviously variations across the UK but Manchester for example is low 20s most days in the outlook, hopefully the wind will die back and it will feel pleasant out there...

 

 

Yes warmth-wise it looks fine. As far as I'm concerned that is positive. Even with a few showers it won't be feeling cool like this last week has. You can already feel the difference in air mass this morning.

[Man With Beard]

I notice Meteociel are rolling out a new ECM Parallel. Will be interesting to track any major differences between the existing model and the new one.

I'll leave this here for now - op vs parallel at T168. The parallel is marked // in the top right. Not a huge amount of difference except the Atlantic is slightly held back on the parallel, with heights slightly stronger through the UK.

  

[mb018538]

ECM a bit on the low side again at day 8-10, rest of the ensembles keeping the low a bit further away. Looks ever improving as we head through the week.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM a bit on the low side again at day 8-10, rest of the ensembles keeping the low a bit further away. Looks ever improving as we head through the week.

Yes, would like to see a DET more aligned with the mean though.

Sunshine and showers now look the order of the day, lighter winds and temps moving to the low 20s should feel warm in the sun..

[chapmanslade]

8 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

If only we had plane data...

Whilst not as many as usual it isn't exactly a data drought !

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

If only we had plane data...

ECM stated in a webinar last week the impact of missing plane data wasn't impacting model output and also said they had managed introduce other data to fill any gaps. 

[northwestsnow]

GFS 6z looks reasonable, as you were from the 00z run, sunshine,showers,hopefully light winds, temps 20-23 widely as we go through the weekend and into next week...

Edit by 144 we see the trend for the Azores ridge continued , by next weekend the battle lines are drawn between the ridge and the Icelandic low...

All in all, nothing sensational but nothing horrible, probably explains the thread being quiet..

 

Edited June 12, 2020 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

 

Warm-ish and drier by Friday 

[northwestsnow]

Yes, an excellent 6Z with temps still into the low to mid 20s through next weekend...

Becoming drier away from the far NW too...

[mb018538]

ECM clusters struggling with the depth and position of the Atlantic trough at day 7. This obviously effects the run later on, so let’s just call a halt there for now!

[Man With Beard]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters struggling with the depth and position of the Atlantic trough at day 7. This obviously effects the run later on, so let’s just call a halt there for now!

And already struggling even earlier at T120 - I was struck by the fact that cluster 1 at D5 is still quite "troughy" - though at such short range you'd probably start to back the op more than the ens

 

 

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters struggling with the depth and position of the Atlantic trough at day 7. This obviously effects the run later on, so let’s just call a halt there for now!

Indeed.

Cluster 1 looks pretty naff...the other 2 look decent.

 

[Singularity]

 

Jet stream level charts show best what the models are struggling to pin down. Notice here the subtle increase in southward elongation of the upper trough for 6 pm Tue between 00z (left) and 06z (right) GFS runs.

This then escalates into much more of a difference within the following 24 hours:

 

The 06z has a more effective separation (cut-off) of the upper trough from the polar jet stream. This provides a better environment for a surface high to develop across the N. half of the UK, while shifting the most unstable conditions to the south of the UK.

This then has the knock-on effect of producing a stronger high against which the next major Atlantic trough must do battle, increasing the likelihood that the high wins out for control of the UK's weather.

So much hinges on slight differences in 3-4 day's time! No wonder the models are having a hard time of it.

[Frosty.]

According to the latest output, at the very worst we would be looking at a typical north / south split longer term...and I’m using the ECM 0z ensemble mean as a template / example..in the meantime, there’s plenty of warmth / sunshine  / humid..thundery potential in the pipeline shorter term..however way you slice it.,it’s summer weather!

Edited June 12, 2020 by JON SNOW