Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

amazing how one run was been told to not be taken at face value

seems to go out the window when peoples favorite weather and heat and storms are concerned

hope you are all not building yourselves for an almighty disappointment

going to take a couple of days away otherwise the drool from this thread might seep through my monitor onto my keyboard

good luck everybody

You obviously haven’t followed this thread closely then. All we’ve been discussing is rain and potential flooding for days now!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

amazing how one run was been told to not be taken at face value

seems to go out the window when peoples favorite weather and heat and storms are concerned

hope you are all not building yourselves for an almighty disappointment

going to take a couple of days away otherwise the drool from this thread might seep through my monitor onto my keyboard

good luck everybody

But, in this case, it's several consecutive runs from different models...and they're all pointing towards a warm/hot outlook...?

Even so, it can still all go horribly wrong!

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

amazing how one run was been told to not be taken at face value

seems to go out the window when peoples favorite weather and heat and storms are concerned

hope you are all not building yourselves for an almighty disappointment

going to take a couple of days away otherwise the drool from this thread might seep through my monitor onto my keyboard

good luck everybody

I'll cut you some slack Gordon as I know you are not a fan of thunderstorms. The next week or so look prime thunderstorm territory and to be honest this isn't from one run. For days now we have seen a warm and humid outlook with the potential for storms for a number of locations.

Data will update and change of course so in that sense caution needs to be applied for those expecting a storm in their own backyard. The warm up is pretty nailed on though and with low pressure close-by we'll have plenty of instability to tap into for a number of days.

With respect this isn't a one-run wonder  

[Allseasons-Si]

45 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

amazing how one run was been told to not be taken at face value

seems to go out the window when peoples favorite weather and heat and storms are concerned

hope you are all not building yourselves for an almighty disappointment

going to take a couple of days away otherwise the drool from this thread might seep through my monitor onto my keyboard

good luck everybody

I am sorry but that is not true Gordon,we have all three(UKMO,GFS and GEM)models singing from the same hymn sheet at 144 and i would suspect that the ECM will follow suit

we are not building anything up for a disappointment mate,we are just stating what the models are showing and that is an upgrade in finer warmer weather once the trough hopefully gets shunted SW

all three at 144.

this is not a dig at you by the way and i apologize if you feel it is

i know you don't like thunderstorms Gordon so stay safe mate

P.S, i will lick my keyboard and monitor if i get a storm,eeeeeewwww!!!

Edited June 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

Well, wasn't the GFS 12Z a stonker! Best run since 2018? And it ends with the Azores pushing in nicely:

    

But, truth be told, it is still only one run!

[ribster]

32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

You obviously haven’t followed this thread closely then. All we’ve been discussing is rain and potential flooding for days now!

While he may be wide of the mark on this occasion, I have some sympathy with his view, as prior to this minor unsettled period it was almost evangelical in here, with anyone mentioning cool or unsettled made out to be a blaspheming heathen. Anyway, a few cracking thunderstorms would be lovely...

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, ribster said:

While he may be wide of the mark on this occasion, I have some sympathy with his view, as prior to this minor unsettled period it was almost evangelical in here, with anyone mentioning cool or unsettled made out to be a blaspheming heathen. Anyway, a few cracking thunderstorms would be lovely...

Well, that's nae entirely true either, ribster: it was the predictions of 'locked-in cold', hundreds of mms of rainfall, and a rerun of 2012 that were queried. But, as you say, stormageddon would be nice!

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, ribster said:

While he may be wide of the mark on this occasion, I have some sympathy with his view, as prior to this minor unsettled period it was almost evangelical in here, with anyone mentioning cool or unsettled made out to be a blaspheming heathen. Anyway, a few cracking thunderstorms would be lovely...

You just have to discuss what’s showing, regardless of type. Call a spade a spade.

The only thing that grates on me is people posting rainfall or temperature charts 7-10 days away and taking them as 100% guaranteed to happen. It’s much better to get a handle on the synoptic pattern first, the as you get closer work out the finer details like cloud/rain/temperature.....which are very difficult to forecast accurately in these set ups.

[Djdazzle]

15 minutes ago, ribster said:

While he may be wide of the mark on this occasion, I have some sympathy with his view, as prior to this minor unsettled period it was almost evangelical in here, with anyone mentioning cool or unsettled made out to be a blaspheming heathen. Anyway, a few cracking thunderstorms would be lovely...

It’s not the mentioning of unsettled weather that’s the issue, but the writing off of weeks, months or even whole seasons. And some of those people only ever post, or comment on, unsettled charts. I’m a fan of hot in summer and cold in winter, but will discuss whatever the models are showing, and also look to show alternative scenarios - not to belittle people, but to have a discussion, which is what this thread is about. 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Allseasons-Si]

Is it me or are those 850's a notch up by the weekend and start of next week and extending the heat from previous days plus the pressure looks to rise again in the extended

my local and London.

[lassie23]

14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, that's nae entirely true either, ribster: it was the predictions of 'locked-in cold', hundreds of mms of rainfall, and a rerun of 2012 that were queried. But, as you say, stormageddon would be nice!

Summer of 2012, was awesome, nice and cool and wet, a rerun please. *Runs and hides behind sofa*

[Zak M]

31 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am sorry but that is not true Gordon,we have all three(UKMO,GFS and GEM)models singing from the same hymn sheet at 144 and i would suspect that the ECM will follow suit

we are not building anything up for a disappointment mate,we are just stating what the models are showing and that is an upgrade in finer warmer weather once the trough hopefully gets shunted SW

all three at 144.

this is not a dig at you by the way and i apologize if you feel it is

i know you don't like thunderstorms Gordon so stay safe mate

P.S, i will lick my keyboard and monitor if i get a storm,eeeeeewwww!!!

Tell you what, there's a good chance of storms in your area on your birthday if nothing changes

Edited June 9, 2020 by Zak M

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Tell you what, there's a good chance of storms in your area on Saturday if nothing changes

Go's and cleans keyboard and monitor

even after the weekend it looks like settling down and becoming warm or dare i say it that it might become hot from the south but lets get the weekend sorted first.

[mb018538]

Big ECM run incoming. If that joins the clan then the outlook certainly looks much improved for now - no guarantee it’ll last, but much better than what is about to happen in the next few days.

[Downburst]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Big ECM run incoming. If that joins the clan then the outlook certainly looks much improved for now - no guarantee it’ll last, but much better than what is about to happen in the next few days.

12 c 850’s by Friday lunch time into SE, should be a good run. 

[Methuselah]

Surprisingly perhaps, the GEFS 12Z ens are not all cooler than the GFS op. The op is nothing like a warm outlier!

    

    

And, the NH profiles are pretty good, too!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm pretty impressed with the 12Z mean again, at least it's being consistent.. I'm also quite impressed with what its showing further down the line.. Some serious Heat building through Central Europe, meaning everytime we can pull in an Estly, we are gonna be seriously warming up.. 

Rain tomorrow and pretty cool, beyond that a warm up with plenty of sunny spells... And some hum dingers hopefully thrown in for good measure.. We are now at least looking at some proper Summer conditions.. Something for everyone... Enjoy it folks.... LIVE THE DREAM..

[Mark wheeler]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

And 144,this looks an upgrade for fine and settled weather.

That’s an absolute Beauty  . I should maybe miss the 12z runs more often

Edited June 9, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM not clearing the trough as quick as the GFS and UKMO at 120 but i think the same outcome will be revealed shortly after..

 

[Allseasons-Si]

19 minutes ago, MATT said:

I'm pretty impressed with the 12Z mean again, at least it's being consistent.. I'm also quite impressed with what its showing further down the line.. Some serious Heat building through Central Europe, meaning everytime we can pull in an Estly, we are gonna be seriously warming up.. 

Rain tomorrow and pretty cool, beyond that a warm up with plenty of sunny spells... And some hum dingers hopefully thrown in for good measure.. We are now at least looking at some proper Summer conditions.. Something for everyone... Enjoy it folks.... LIVE THE DREAM..

Hi MATT

do you know that you have posted the control run and not the mean

the mean still looks nice though and even well out in fl.

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mark wheeler]

Hey , Where are you going so fast ? 

 

edit - Not sure if this is good or not ? Doesn’t seem great Uk wide , better for the south east .
 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Scorcher]

I'm expecting this ECM run to be an outlier- looks rather different to what it's been showing over the past day or two.

[Zak M]

168 looks alright for S England

Edited June 9, 2020 by Zak M

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Allseasons-si cheers mate.. I'm having a blonde day even though I'm bald.. Here is the mean from the 12z...and yes it looks rather splendid.

[Djdazzle]

ECM not really joining the party. And until it does, you have to doubt the GFS solution.