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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    T216:

    image.thumb.jpg.3fe69521303d79f57f877ebb0d5025fc.jpg

    This looks so messy that I'm inclined to put it in the bin now....we all know that anything beyond T120 needs to be regarded as speculation!

    I would definitely agree with that.  Looking at both the GFS and ECM, they just sort of meander around after 144 so there's clearly no strong signal being picked up outside of 5 days or so.  

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    I’m guessing 216-240 is going to be the classic NW/SE divide 

    You're correct...

    12c isotherm in the S while it looks to be a bit more unsettled in the north.

    ECM1-240.gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC looks warm and muggy with surely the chance of storms...

    As others have noted ,a NW/SE split developing later with temps climbing across the South ...

    The trough of despair is causing all sorts of headaches for the models, a shift of a hundred miles could be the difference between supressed temps and heavy rain, or alternatively, warm and humid ..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    By day 10 we get uppers of 14 into the SE corner so i would imagine 27/28 Degrees likely.

    Caveat being its a day 10 chart of course...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    By day 10 we get uppers of 14 into the SE corner so i would imagine 27/28 Degrees likely.

    Caveat being its a day 10 chart of course...

    ECM 12z raw charts show 28c Wednesday and 30c Thursday in the London area. Usually 1-2c undercooked. I think with uppers that high we’d likely see the first 30c of the year as it’s now mid June! ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM 12z raw charts show 28c Wednesday and 30c Thursday in the London area. Usually 1-2c undercooked. I think with uppers that high we’d likely see the first 30c of the year as it’s now mid June! ? 

    Yes thats hot, i assumed there would be some clouds around keeping a lid on the temperatures but i guess EC not seeing much cloud in the SE...

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    39 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    T216:

    image.thumb.jpg.3fe69521303d79f57f877ebb0d5025fc.jpg

    This looks so messy that I'm inclined to put it in the bin now....we all know that anything beyond T120 needs to be regarded as speculation!

    I would put the current charts  for the next few days in the bin, but certainly not those charts. Conditions could get close to 30c with decent sunny spells in more S/SE locations, and that's a hell of a better situation than this trough situation we have to contend with this week.. That's assuming all this comes off of course. 

    Edit.. @Mike Poole non of the runs are making much sense at the moment mate.. Anything is possible.. Let's see what the mean as to say about that one.. ?

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes thats hot, i assumed there would be some clouds around keeping a lid on the temperatures but i guess EC not seeing much cloud in the SE...

     

    Looks that way @northwestsnow

    8C1D48B6-CC22-452D-879F-C6FF22B103FF.thumb.jpeg.57ced42a9af8b3415df1e0779b29b18b.jpeg
     

    ECM ppn totals out to day 10 show the sw and Wales particularly badly hit - close to 100mm in places. By contrast the E/SE don’t really see any additional rain from day 6-10, indicating drier and warm/hot weather in the slack warm airflow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    So, just a summary from the 12z ECM:

    It's showing a brief warm up in the upcoming weekend except for the SW, where a low looks to be bringing outbreaks of rain there. 

    Into next week it's showing the south starting to warm up even more as we gain some heat from France and Spain. I reckon the high-twenties will be possible in the south along with the 12c isothern over the majority of England and the 14c isotherm clipping the SE. With the low to our NW, thunderstorms could be possible.

    :oldsmile:

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all ?

    An uninspiring day here in East London and the chill of the weekend remains - the forecast looks warmer and wetter though any storm will have to go some to beat Saturday afternoon's spectacular.

    Moving on through the middle of the month, what might the second half of June hold?

    T+192 tonight from the usual suspects and the 12Z suite: GEM, GFS Control, GFS OP, ECM and JMA

    image.thumb.png.ae8e4d1a4750e59c0ca250455c914d8d.pngimage.thumb.png.569887cc094e816d06a409da46300e3f.pngimage.thumb.png.e8f15d6b7c1534e5663a8809f41de6f0.pngimage.thumb.png.76d7840e6859453d6b91567a8871df87.pngimage.thumb.png.54c1f2403983743a1538e875a8347b26.png

    This takes us to next Tuesday, the first day of Royal Ascot.

    Still plenty of heights to the north and north east and the Azores HP not really an influence. ECM has moved the cut off LP further to the south alloowing weak heights over SE England and the Low Countries but the main pattern seems to be to keep pressure lower over or just to the south of the British Isles. GEM puts the shallow LP right over England while Control links the trough over the British Isles back to the icelandic LP.

    A slack pattern so warm enough for most and perhaps humid with the continuing risk of showers or storms for southern areas while haar affects eastern counties leaving the best weather for north western areas.

    Moving on and both GEM and ECM bring LP in much closer to the British Isles by the Thursday suggesting any settled conditions will be transient with further rain for many.

    Further ahead still, GFS OP maintains the overall pattern with the trough negatively aligned keeping the Azores HP of no value and suggesting further LP development SE from Iceland into Europe. Control keeps things pretty much the same as well though with the fascinating evolution of developing the LP in central Europe and sending that NW toward the British Isles forcing the Atlantic LP back west and replacing it with a warm NE'ly which you don't see every day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    12 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    I would put the current charts  for the next few days in the bin, but certainly not those charts. Conditions could get close to 30c with decent sunny spells in more S/SE locations, and that's a hell of a better situation than this trough situation we have to contend with this week.. That's assuming all this comes off of course. 

    The charts are in the bin, not because they aren't nice, Matt, but because they aren't going to happen!   This run went wrong long before this!!

    I am not saying heat or thunderstorms are not possible at this time, actually both are very possible,  just that the exact synoptics at the end of ECM are implausible, in my view. 

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

    ECM very similar to the UKMO

    765F831E-81F1-4F84-9C61-F12DF65B4046.gif

    6491A31F-436B-4EF2-AD0C-F8B167588697.gif

    Don't know about anyone else but I'm getting a headache trying to track such a small low pressure near to the UK! 

    I can't really take anything beyond T144 too seriously for the UK atm - can't predict such small low pressures with little global forcing. Big picture around the UK looks set, our small picture, such a variety of weather possible. Still hoping the trough will clear sufficiently even by Friday (not a forecast!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Dunno what to say about ecm!!kinda boring to be fair!gone is the torrential rain from ecm but also not as hot until 192 hours!!!main positive for me its miles drier for me in the midlands compared to the monsoon it was forecasting the other day!!also its looking comfortable with temps in the low 20s until days 8 to 10 when they climb mid 20s and above for england!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I'm pretty pleased with the mean.. And temperatures look to stay warm throughout. ?

    EDM1-96.gif

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM0-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    EDM0-240.gif

    graphe0_00_223_66___.png

    graphe1_00_223_66___.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean, here T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.c8c9ef172025e6981b8b04a8a611ec69.jpg

    Looks sufficient margin on the mean low centre to give us some wriggle room.  

    And that is as far as we can go, the rest is just a smeared out mess of uncertainty, T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.cd22485a75826097575ece1110280e0e.jpg

    T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.d7905934345b234b4327a1d4a3bc3b36.jpg

    Don't know!  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The ECM mean looks good from 144 folks,and it's a?'s up from me?

    EDM1-144.thumb.gif.4c220e5dff8b5fd9eebb1284aa8f51bb.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.f274f9aabf436a5eec23dcbd2a61ed62.gif

    EDM1-168.thumb.gif.f30f4668e3d36de68730a0f01381c4be.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.cdc984180acd4d53c4355fd34f4c63ac.gif

    EDM1-192.thumb.gif.8df32c9b2fde879fa6d0c18718b9ae90.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.3da02b31459b300488c243ee5d94007b.gif

    EDM1-216.thumb.gif.9ee7a20a8db7dd83f74ca65ce59bfab0.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.6c099f3db63198f75d1a670e2fc54824.gif

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.3c2295ce4d0e03236675f0963e8261de.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.91228a31e80cf1b70db8d14eff6235bc.gif

    850's and pressure,nae bad although there is quiet a spread on that pressure chart.

    graphe_ens3_bzb5.thumb.png.6757760c743f848ce9c6dbbdfa041d26.pnggraphe1_00_268_29___.thumb.png.20031c56c2171a0542fa41936932e40b.png

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Mmmm as others have said no real clarity how things may pan out as we move through the middle of the month. In the short term, we have large uncertainty, where will the trough dropping through the UK position itself, how strong will low heights become and where will the central core of these be.

    If this was mid winter and you like snow, then the synoptical evolution Wed- Friday is a dream, a frontal system pepping up as it moves through the UK under cold uppers bringing widespread snow, then a long long fetch NE snow showers galore, trough features embedded and a long drawn easterly - air source east of the Urals, alas I'm getting carried away and it is June not January more is the pity..

    Models suggesting a slack humid airstream enveloping the UK over the weekend and into the following weekend, showers, thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere, lots of cloud away from the north and north west as well, muggy conditions. Not very inspiring, rather have a dry sunny day high teens, than a cloudy muggy feel with mid 20's temps.

    Longer term - no sign the azores high coming our way anytime soon, this leaves the UK exposed a negatively aligned atlantic trough scenario, further low pressure sneaking into the UK, could end up cyclonic.

    Interesting charts from a weather enthusiast who prefers a non traditional westerly airstream, continuing the theme since mid March.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, should the modelled warmth and humidity actually happen (surely, it can't all go wrong, from here!:oldlaugh:) it'll make for some wonderfully verdant plant-growth? And, as another aside, the buddleia in my garden started flowering on June 2nd!:shok::oldgood:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Just a quick one from me regarding the mean.. The extended out to day 14 looks pretty good... Its staying around 1020mb..so certainly not unsettled.. Anyhow I have a migraine so that's me done.. Tek care all.. ?

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmmm as others have said no real clarity how things may pan out as we move through the middle of the month. In the short term, we have large uncertainty, where will the trough dropping through the UK position itself, how strong will low heights become and where will the central core of these be.

    If this was mid winter and you like snow, then the synoptical evolution Wed- Friday is a dream, a frontal system pepping up as it moves through the UK under cold uppers bringing widespread snow, then a long long fetch NE snow showers galore, trough features embedded and a long drawn easterly - air source east of the Urals, alas I'm getting carried away and it is June not January more is the pity..

    Models suggesting a slack humid airstream enveloping the UK over the weekend and into the following weekend, showers, thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere, lots of cloud away from the north and north west as well, muggy conditions. Not very inspiring, rather have a dry sunny day high teens, than a cloudy muggy feel with mid 20's temps.

    Longer term - no sign the azores high coming our way anytime soon, this leaves the UK exposed a negatively aligned atlantic trough scenario, further low pressure sneaking into the UK, could end up cyclonic.

    Interesting charts from a weather enthusiast who prefers a non traditional westerly airstream, continuing the theme since mid March.

    Ain't it typical the Scots are told to stay at home in potentially the best of the weather but it good old England we can go out and get soaked to our hearts content , at least those worried about crowded beaches might have less to worry about

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Lovely GFS seems to be rolling & looks like a warm and humid weekend followed by a series of warmer days as LP hovers around the SW off Cornwall. 

    npsh500 (1).png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Edited by 38.7°C
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    18z GEFS p6 looks like a stunner, FI of course but it's showing the highest temp being 30c. And look at the night as well, 26c in some places at midnight?! You're kidding :oldgrin: p14 is a good perturbation also. Enjoy the rest of your night/morning all, I'm off to bed...

    6_384_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.3dde079df996139867335eb654f422a2.png   6_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.0cf0b05d876e28e29b5c38cd1a83c2b0.png   gens-6-1-336.thumb.png.fa696982aded4a0e1a14c77836ce1dfe.png   gens-6-0-372.thumb.png.e57bf7a855f4e94387cca118c1815d96.png   14_384_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.9c4065cbe29db65a51a18772021498fa.png   gens-14-1-384.thumb.png.2fe26154aa26a79f93e777fa6575b726.png   gens-14-0-384.thumb.png.963c9b96421cefebdb23586e74b1d49b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    3 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Just a quick one from me regarding the mean.. The extended out to day 14 looks pretty good... Its staying around 1020mb..so certainly not unsettled.. Anyhow I have a migraine so that's me done.. Tek care all.. ?

    I get them too. Take care 

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