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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM rainfall down from previous runs but still quite wet for most, 60-70mm for the 10 period is the max over southern / central areas. 

    Still quite wet, but I suspect going by the run much of that would be thundery rather than frontal, so harder to predict? Doesn’t look as ‘washout’ as earlier runs?

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Apologies if a bit off topic but anyone seen the ECM getting a upgrade at the end of the month and also the GFSv16 in 2021? Just noticed it on meteociel?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    9942BC19-29E1-4784-9947-791084C647CD.thumb.png.6b7eb24b9abdce499e16a1f035b293bc.png71A267C0-64B5-4B3A-93C3-75C73EB31961.thumb.png.0b0e7749e5e4c5bfb42fec378371340f.png

    Nice to see an ecm op run fit a bit closer to the mean. As it wasn’t a bad run, I think we’d all accept that as an outcome.

    After a few more cooler days, significantly warmer towards the end of next week:

    CA53D1CE-92E0-4CEE-8585-2DDC56EBE67B.thumb.png.119065232bbb72f2e45ff325ca06ef2f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    15 minutes ago, TomW said:

    Apologies if a bit off topic but anyone seen the ECM getting a upgrade at the end of the month and also the GFSv16 in 2021? Just noticed it on meteociel?

    Yep, it’s moving to 137 levels. ??

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I mentioned Poland and Belarus previously, if we do tap into an easterly feed the temps by next weekend in warsaw will be +31/32 degrees im pretty sure thats well above average for mid June..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    I mentioned Poland and Belarus previously, if we do tap into an easterly feed the temps by next weekend in warsaw will be +31/32 degrees im pretty sure thats well above average for mid June..

     

    I wonder what the UK record temp was from an easterly?

    The latest from cpc puts the trough well out of arms reach down towards NW Spain/Portugal,Scandi hp cell still firmly fixed and a continued risk of some good convective imports.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.f27507e34578d08cc96e4e80ba05375a.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.d957ecb77751a0cd0d87e06522daa736.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I wonder what the UK record temp was from an easterly?

    The latest from cpc puts the trough well out of arms reach down towards NW Spain/Portugal,Scandi hp cell still firmly fixed and a continued risk of some good convective imports.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.f27507e34578d08cc96e4e80ba05375a.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.d957ecb77751a0cd0d87e06522daa736.gif

     

    I’m sure the 1990 early August heatwave was easterly sourced, probably ESE direction, which achieved 37.1C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I’m sure the 1990 early August heatwave was easterly sourced, probably ESE direction, which achieved 37.1C.

    Hmm, I wonder what sort of temperatures we will be achieving from heatwaves another 30 years from now?!

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I’m sure the 1990 early August heatwave was easterly sourced, probably ESE direction, which achieved 37.1C.

    Wasn't that S'ly influenced hence the hottest temps being confined to Western England? Bristol & Somerset up through Cheltenham, Birmingham and Western parts, Crewe & Chester were mid 30Cs?? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Ghastly 18z run for midlands and southern england in terms of rainfall!!the low ends up in the channel and northern france but just ends up staying there for the next 3 days!i dont believe the gfs what so ever anymore but it just shows what could happen if it did turn out like this!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Yes 18z gfs is a shocker for warm settled weather. But looks an outlier in the ensemble pack. Can't really trust it lately anyway so doesn't mean much. Just hoping it's not a complete wash out next week. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

    Ghastly 18z run for midlands and southern england in terms of rainfall!!the low ends up in the channel and northern france but just ends up staying there for the next 3 days!i dont believe the gfs what so ever anymore but it just shows what could happen if it did turn out like this!!

    Can't trust GFS after last few days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Here in the model thread, I try to post as much positive things as possible, and when there is a bad GFS run, I'll head to the ensembles as there should be at least one positive perturbation, that being p12!

    gens-12-1-216.thumb.png.b36f58155d8337002c79e6db01543555.png   gens-12-0-348.thumb.png.b87f83ab9d74ac3200d17c78b7495c89.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Very messy picture this morning GEM struggles to keep the U.K. under the influence of a easterly for long and favours renewed troughing digging down over the U.K, it think the UKMO would be similar if it went out a little further. GFS more promising though the easterly is pretty weak and there a large spread on the ensembles. ECM just coming out and seems to be the most promising of them all currently to 144hrs although the trough is hanging around in the south, could be a wet run south of the M4. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    So on the morning 00Zs, the trough arrives anywhere from the Alps to Biscay by D6. 

    I detect that the trough has slightly declined in strength though - it's really quite small now. 

    ECM T168 — the warmer air is now pushing into the UK and the trough is mainly limited to SW parts. 

    ECM0-168.GIF?07-12

     

    ECM1-168.GIF?07-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    903EA16B-3A57-409D-BFC4-0EF3079701B6.thumb.png.6679d85db47fad3627ba4637184b2dca.png42B6B3BD-F06F-46DF-84B5-30EF115AB84E.thumb.png.07a841f1df1344520b0989e0b9c26f3e.png

    Warm and thundery on the ECM at day 8 ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 hours ago, Don said:

    Hmm, I wonder what sort of temperatures we will be achieving from heatwaves another 30 years from now?!

    and January northerlies (if they still exist by then) 12 degrees

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    ECM again turns very messy with troughing remaining nearby as the U.K. again ends up in no mans land. The Scandinavian high doesn’t influence us such as some previous runs with it only really benefiting the far north east of the country. Again high precip totals anywhere south of Manchester with many seeing 40-90mm+.Maybe only on day then does the pattern look more promising? 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Gfs finally finds an op run which makes sense when checked against general guidance from the other nwp.  given the uncertainties of a euro trough and scandi high combo, I would be relaxed using that 00z op for a general backdrop next couple weeks (although broad brushstrokes required) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    43 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    ECM again turns very messy with troughing remaining nearby as the U.K. again ends up in no mans land. The Scandinavian high doesn’t influence us such as some previous runs with it only really benefiting the far north east of the country. Again high precip totals anywhere south of Manchester with many seeing 40-90mm+.Maybe only on day then does the pattern look more promising? 

    At least the initial trough sinks through quicker on all the runs this morning, but as you say still the potential for big rainfall totals for the South.

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