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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

    Those models keep going backwards and forwards between a another heat wave and keeping this unsettled spell going like a see-saw-especially from Wednesday onwards! 

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    This, from June 1995, has something of a 'locked-in' look to me::oldgrin: It also has a ridge-trough-ridge pattern?:oldgood:

    Rrea00119950610.gif    Rrea00219950610.gif

    How can anyone write off an entire summer, based on the synoptic pattern...when there are still 86 days remaining? I'm sure glad there was no NW back then!:oldlaugh:

    Indeed Ed, sorry I’ve run out of reactions (only get a few!) but I agree with you 100 percent..I’d buy that august for a $!?
    F7C65656-EC0A-4945-A754-09E0DA38BE83.thumb.png.dbbc83dca57d8d5aa9596918be5327f8.png9CCF5202-967B-4721-AD35-A253E1B9D725.thumb.png.ffda922201cfb63a99bc13e348782f0a.png3F5343A2-7633-43F7-A75D-0D2141618F74.thumb.png.5f8a5169e418c1e29fb7a329453517ba.png4BD67963-DE32-42EF-83B3-58DFE4683D05.thumb.png.a886ee029faa2e06bef14635c40b4fed.pngA305CB14-95C1-44BA-8B54-9A2684B9CFB8.thumb.jpeg.230b5f73a828e718435aafec0e34c8a5.jpeg

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, MikeC53 said:

    They can John but what Terrier is seeing is what several others are too - once you get that 'over the top' blocking in Summer it means slow moving fronts and a stuck pattern for our locale aka 2007 & 2012.

    The thing is mate many where calling that scenario last June also.. Troughs getting stuck over us with a repeat of 2012..we went on to record 3 or 4 noticeable plumes, one of them beating the all time temperature record!! 

    I'm not disputing any of what you guys are saying, and at the end of the day its a Weather forum, and we all have the right to say it as we see it. But it's a dangerous game to try and make bold predictions moving further forward, especially as NWP seems to be all over the place at the moment... Whether that's due to current lack of data or contrasting signals only time will tell. But at the end of the day we are a week into Summer and it's impossible to call how it will all pan out for sure, to call a 2012 situation makes know more sense than me and others calling a 95 or 2018 repeat... Yes I would like that outcome, but I'm also aware it's far to difficult to make such a call so early, and at this stage it may seem unlikely.... But if I recall 95 did start of pretty mixed... The rest is History... But each year will bring a different set of circumstances and a new set of ideas... Anything goes I suppose at the end of the day mate.. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Statistically speaking a washout summer seems to be long overdue:  1988, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2007, 2012, ???  

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    Yes to be honest, his posts have been misleading about maximum temps over the last few days.

    A couple of days back he jumped on one ECM chart that showed a max of 9C for these parts today. I said it was just raw data and wouldn't pan out that way. We are now expecting 15/16C this afternoon.

    It's very easy to cherry pick charts to suit an agenda.

     Can I just say one thing here and draw a line under it... There is no point in singling out posters who are showing something you don't like, we may not like it and it can be frustrating if it's something we don't wanna hear, but everyone is entitled to there opinion, and keep singling out others will only lead to trouble and bad feeling on this otherwise excellent forum.. I speak from experience about getting frustrated with others who's posts I didn't agree with or like... And you don't want to go down the road of being put on restrictive posts if it gets out of hand... Let's all just agree to disagree at times and keep it all friendly.. Enjoy your evenings.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

    Statistically speaking a washout summer seems to be long overdue:  1988, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2007, 2012, ???  

    I'd say a properly thundery summer is the only thing more overdue than a washout summer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

     

    A couple of days back he jumped on one ECM chart that showed a max of 9C for these parts today. I said it was just raw data and wouldn't pan out that way. We are now expecting 15/16C this afternoon.

    While I agree with you from the north west perspective, the majority of southern England is only 10-12C some 6-9C below average, with some places from Norfolk to west Wales with temps currently at 9-point-something. So while yes regionally you have escaped the very lowest of the daytime temps its certainly a very, very chilly day for early June and the models from 3,4,5 days back weren't a million miles out for a big chunk of the UK. 

    Not sure I can take the 12z carnage, might have to hit the rum ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    I do NOT like this post, I would never mislead or attempt too, and will always hold my hands up if I make an error and on this occasion I have made an error. I don't why but my PC has locked/cached in some of the GFS data from yesterdays output, so apologise.

    Also as stated before I only try and show/state/comment what the models show, if says 100mm that's what I'll say, just like if its says 9C or 39C that's what'll I say. If you don't like it, just ignore it. Lastly its getting frustrating of the ridicule you get if you dare attempt to post against the optimal seasonal output, i.e. cold in winter, hot in summer. No-one jumps all over someone picking out a stonking massive outlier two weeks away showing 31C, yet post something showing 9C just 4days out at your peril.

     

    I was scratching my head to work out what height you were referring to but could not work it out-so thanks for clearing that up to a simple mind like mine

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    2 hours ago, MikeC53 said:

    They can John but what Terrier is seeing is what several others are too - once you get that 'over the top' blocking in Summer it means slow moving fronts and a stuck pattern for our locale aka 2007 & 2012.

    the predicted synoptic charts are nothing like those of those washout summers.

    7/10 of the best summers (according to "Weather Historys" Manchester summer index ) had dodgy, cooler unsettled spells in June...

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    20 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Statistically speaking a washout summer seems to be long overdue:  1988, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2007, 2012, ???  

    I think a hot August is more overdue than a washout summer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    A few on here talk of lows becoming stuck over the UK as if the pattern in some way reinforces itself regardless of what goes on with other key drivers of our weather patterns.

    While there are some feedbacks that can come into play to sustain a pattern like that , it can’t overcome contrary forcing from the tropical cycle, for example. At least, not for more than a day or two.

    In 2012 as an example, AAM was way down low and locked into negative cycles. We don’t have anything like that in the current outlook - instead predictions that AAM will climb during the third week of the month. That’s a big indicator for any UK-based troughs to give way to ones fully to our west.

    It’s only CFS pointing to an AAM rise isn’t it? I thought it looked likely a standing wave was going to set up around the Indian Ocean and prevent momentum rising?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The atmosphere is almost winter-like in here!

    Maybe the 12z output should come with a health warning related to blood pressure!

    Only the ICON went against the trough dropping down in the 6z runs. David vs Goliath, or more likely a meek submission coming up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    30 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    The atmosphere is almost winter-like in here!

    Maybe the 12z output should come with a health warning related to blood pressure!

    Only the ICON went against the trough dropping down in the 6z runs. David vs Goliath, or more likely a meek submission coming up.

    Yes, the runs should be interesting this afternoon.  It occurs to me that with the models affected to a greater or lesser extent by the missing aircraft data, now that we have a weather pattern that is difficult to predict in the vicinity of the UK, we might be starting to see the effects of this.  In most of the spring, the UK has had slow moving areas of high pressure over us or not far away, giving the  models some margin or error in the reliable timeframe, so they have got away with it.  That doesn't really apply now, just one possible reason for the current volatility.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    I have got a feeling that tonight's 12zs could bring up a few surprises. This is far from done and dusted from Tuesday onwards. Nowhere near. Bring on the boom summer charts. Keep the faith fellow members. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    This, form June 1995, has something of a 'locked-in' look to me::oldgrin: It also has a ridge-trough-ridge pattern?:oldgood:

    Rrea00119950610.gif    Rrea00219950610.gif

    How can anyone write off an entire summer, based on the synoptic pattern...when there are still 86 days remaining? I'm sure glad there was no NW back then!:oldlaugh:

    Exactly great posting excellence at its best. 

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    1 hour ago, B87 said:

    I think a hot August is more overdue than a washout summer. 

    agree and this year has been a lot like 1990 and 1995 . Both Junes in them years were write offs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    I have got a feeling that tonight's 12zs could bring up a few surprises. This is far from done and dusted from Tuesday onwards. Nowhere near. Bring on the boom summer charts. Keep the faith fellow members. 

    I’d very much doubt we will see summer warmth looking charts within the next 7-10 days. I’d expect the gfs to move towards the ukmo and ecm later. It started to come into line on the 06z run. And I’d expect it to move further towards the unsettled outlook for next week to 10 days. The met are going with unsettled after Tuesday so I’d suggest they are going with the ukmo outlook. Think we can probably write off the next 7-10 days of June. At least the rain will be welcome for farmers and growers. But any signs of summer type charts are very slim at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham

    All indications from UKMO, GFS, ECMWF are of a brief ridge of high pressure moving in for about 36-48 hours and then retrogressing as the trough develops over England and Wales. Very unsettled and cool next week though there is hope of a rise in temperatures to the season average. Plenty of rain to look forward to after the dry spring. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Icon the 1st one out of the blocks, and the first one to be flushed down the lav.. Trough City Central. 

    icon-0-162.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    3 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Icon the 1st one out of the blocks, and the first one to be flushed down the lav.. Trough City Central. 

    icon-0-162.png

    Yes, troughs have nowhere to go with big blocking to the NE, very wet in the West particularly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    ICON has its already poor reputation battered further.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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