Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Can we really get 100mm+ of rainfall, from a 1016mb 'depression'?:unsure2: Anywho, it looks like all of the models are slowly moving toward the real weather; but from opposing directions!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Edited by General Cluster
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Morning all, hope you're all doing well.  Long time since I posted but I'm on here everyday!  Anyway, the model shenanigans have been most amusing over the last few days but it does seem that the GFS has finally been dragged into line with its tail between its legs!  Virtual parity at 120 with the UKMO now (GFS first)

    image.thumb.png.363d36f70e9500a2ae0037a49a0fe05e.pngimage.thumb.png.eac3cbe0ebfe2b67b01e51bef9e45b98.png  

    As already been said, those ECM rainfall totals are really concerning, let's hope it's overdone the numbers.  Certainly the models are not having their finest hours at the moment so I wouldn't worry until those show within 96-120hrs.

     

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.5d548b622c66a5419d195c19133a097f.png

    ecm op - phew!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GFS 0z vs 6z at the same time (120). Shocking!

    image.thumb.png.2df2e82ca878f2e0b7a99ac1cce35e96.png

    image.thumb.png.ef6d4a21c277341e285ea1ce1c369ea7.png

    Edited by Djdazzle
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well GFS 06Z seems more closely aligned with GEM model from earlier @ T144. Its certainly not in the same league as ECM, and not really like UMKO either - I don't know!.....

    It's turning into a very messy run, but one that is dictated by blocking highs over north western Russia and the central Atlantic with blighty in no mans land. 

    Edited by Alderc
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Gfs better than ecm much less rainfall!!but it has gone towards both ecm and ukmo for defo!!ecm a big outlier again!!maybe a better 12z on the way!!maybe it will be the trough on gfs now and high pressure on ecm this evening?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

    Well the GFS 06z now has the trough albeit as a weak looking feature and arrives at a similar conculsion at day 7 as the 0z run did - the Atlantic returning and generally cool and unsettled. So different from the ECM at the same range and that's only the consolation at the moment. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Everything is a mess at the moment. Every model is different from 120 onwards.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well, I still detect a gradual improvement in temperatures at the very least according to the ECM 0z ensemble mean..generally less unsettled too compared to currently.!!!??

    C4725A78-783A-43E1-99AA-F8652131FC4E.thumb.gif.69fc890006dcdd1143fedfdd40364b9a.gifEFD85A02-7EF3-4BC1-8679-D06407CFD518.thumb.gif.970405443db92cdc7d2c937f0ddadadd.gif83503F6F-CDF9-4076-8E56-26FAF9D572A0.thumb.gif.14c456dd013a6ba2980884dc253cee35.gif69276299-69A7-4010-AE95-637B11976E6A.thumb.gif.c358f2f582ada92049798e7023cebab6.gifAC015720-F622-4FEC-B9CC-A1CEDF8BB00C.thumb.gif.289a13b6b351ff288e73e136cc4770f5.gif4F784AF9-FB0B-40ED-8E94-3EB7131FFEBE.thumb.gif.7bd7de9a94e9c8ba50a524570d137caa.gifC6EFC25C-CB79-40E2-B3A8-A24EBBAC2C85.thumb.jpeg.7615036ae39e305b29c62bebd128b9ff.jpeg

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS really is like this mornings GEM run, worryingly like the GEM its trying to link the western Russian high with Greenland heights which ECM is also trying to do towards the end of its run. Again this not a pattern we want as it's prone to getting locked in. Either way I think its fair to say the changes of the 'Front loaded' summer that were being talked about through late  May are significantly reducing.

    Edited by Alderc
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Everything is a mess at the moment. Every model is different from 120 onwards.

    Never have truer words been spoken, Dj!:oldgood:

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS really is like this mornings GEM run, worryingly like the GEM its trying to link the western Russian high with Greenland heights which ECM is also trying to do towards the end of its run. Again this not a pattern we want as it's prone to locked in. Either way I think its fair to say the changes of the 'Front loaded' summer that were being talked about through late  May are significantly reducing.

    Yes, a dreadful overall pattern emerging on all models that go out to day 10 - with the coolest and wettest weather in Europe reserved for the UK and Ireland of course.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS really is like this mornings GEM run, worryingly like the GEM its trying to link the western Russian high with Greenland heights which ECM is also trying to do towards the end of its run. Again this not a pattern we want as it's prone to getting locked in. Either way I think its fair to say the changes of the 'Front loaded' summer that were being talked about through late  May are significantly reducing.

    And maybe the outlier ecm ensemble op is correct!!!picking up a new signal!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    EDE924AA-13A5-47F9-9760-9BDA61D0F088.thumb.png.ff998971bd0cb18b2180de168d2c2102.png

    Theres still 10/51 ecm members pushing the old gfs solution. There’s still hope yet folks! ?

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

    The 06z GFS looks ok to me, the heat surge is still there just about towards the end of the run.  

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    I think, with respect to mid to late next week, we're starting to see some more reasonable 'bit of this, bit of that' solutions from UKMO, GFS and GEM now. Each with their own take on the situation but none going for widespread huge rainfall totals.

    Odds are, some part of the UK will spend a day or two in the cool-warm boundary zone and see a considerable amount, while other parts see nothing all that unusual for mid-June. 

    ECM seems to be displaying that odd habit it has of exploring extreme solutions first one way (all those particularly warm and drier runs) and then the other (the past two incredibly wet runs). Something about the way it works seems to cause feedbacks that cause a weather pattern to self-sustain and/or develop more than we usually see in reality.

     

    Longer-term, bit of a problem with Arctic height rises being indicated now. I've seen Judah Cohen tweeting about another 'pulse' of warm anomalies 'dripping down' from the stratosphere, akin to what led to the brief negative AO interlude in May from which we saw that extraordinarily chilly spell of weather (especially by night).

    This time, however, we've got a pretty strong signal for a broad quasi-stationary trough to be established due-west of the UK, most likely centred somewhere between due south of Greenland and due south of Iceland. As we saw last summer, this duo can lead to some hot spells of weather, though rarely very stable (three fine days and a thunderstorm comes to mind). GFS 06z explores this well.

    npsh500.png h850t850eu.png


    With the way the models have been lately, though, I have to wonder if any of this analysis will still be relevant even tomorrow! Especially considering the expected climb of AAM through neutral and the focus of high pressure from the UK eastward that such corresponds strongly to in June. Trouble there is, such composites tend to be independent of what the AO is doing as a result of stratospheric events. So if you're looking for a (potential) proverbial spanner in the works, look to the skies above the Arctic!

    Looks like we’re just setting down the blocks to a poor period to me. Moscow and Kiev forecast to be up at 25-30c for the foreseeable....once that Eastern European heat block builds up and a trough ends up near us then it doesn’t usually end well. Or quickly. Let’s just hope that we don’t see days of rain and flooding.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

    Tomorrow 7th - 15C

    Monday 8th - 15C

    Tuesday 9th - 14C

    Wednesday 10th - 14C

    Thursday 11th - 14C

    Friday 12th - 15C

    Saturday 13th - 11C

    Sunday 14th - 14C

    Monday 15th - 15C

    Tuesday 16th - 16C

    Wednesday 17th -18C

    Thursday 18th - 14C

    Friday 19th -18C

    Saturday 20th - 14C

    Monday 21st -17C

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    A quite different 06z GFS today, starting to show the trough dive in. However, towards the end of the run, a low pumps up warmer air from the continent, and with the low nearby it could go bang in a few places...

    gfseuw-0-306.thumb.png.3151c6fc7496db2b90e7ecf04893ddd8.png   gfs-0-306.thumb.png.5b39dfa066aacf6edb8ffd421cdb80c8.png   gfs-1-306.thumb.png.e2c511d3c690d22e2fa19e26dce258a9.png

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

    Tomorrow 7th - 15C

    Monday 8th - 15C

    Tuesday 9th - 14C

    Wednesday 10th - 14C

    Thursday 11th - 14C

    Friday 12th - 15C

    Saturday 13th - 11C

    Sunday 14th - 14C

    Monday 15th - 15C

    Tuesday 16th - 16C

    Wednesday 17th -18C

    Thursday 18th - 14C

    Friday 19th -18C

    Saturday 20th - 14C

    Monday 21st -17C

    its largely above average for most of the run in the se - disaster every where else and would likely be one of the coldest Junes on record further west if verified 

    it won't verify though I think any of the models are yet to get close to the final pattern - I suspect UKMO is the closest this morning

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It seems we are spelling an end to the first part of summer on here.. All I would say is considering the uncertainty and the major flapping around of these models... Then thats a brave call to make. Even the GFS mean is not really backing up the operational.. Its miles out with that deep low at day 8ish...its just impossible to call beyond a few days.. 

    gens-21-1-96.png

    gens-21-1-120.png

    gens-21-1-144.png

    gens-21-1-168.png

    gens-21-1-228.png

    gens-21-1-240.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

    Tomorrow 7th - 15C

    Monday 8th - 15C

    Tuesday 9th - 14C

    Wednesday 10th - 14C

    Thursday 11th - 14C

    Friday 12th - 15C

    Saturday 13th - 11C

    Sunday 14th - 14C

    Monday 15th - 15C

    Tuesday 16th - 16C

    Wednesday 17th -18C

    Thursday 18th - 14C

    Friday 19th -18C

    Saturday 20th - 14C

    Monday 21st -17C

    Yes I just looked at the same for here - below average to cold and as MB says, heat building over NE Europe generally means poor conditions for us.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    If you're just interested in moaning about the weather/charts, then post it HERE

    Keep it to constructive model discussion in here, please?!

     

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Settled, dry spell continues as daytime temperatures edge up a degree or so

      The risk of frost continues and it is chilly out of the sunshine but the fine, dry spell continues this week as the temperatures creep up, closer to average rather than below as they have been. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      2021 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Outlook

      Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Read the full article

      BornFromTheVoid
      BornFromTheVoid
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...