Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Djdazzle 5,514]

27 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It has certainly inched more towards the troughing scenario.

Maybe there will be a middle ground - if that's possible in this setup?

[CreweCold 27,989]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Maybe there will be a middle ground - if that's possible in this setup?

Possibly.

From a personal perspective it would be great to get warmth and convection working in tandem. I love a good thunderstorm.

[Allseasons-si 25,031]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Possibly.

From a personal perspective it would be great to get warmth and convection working in tandem. I love a good thunderstorm.

You keep on enticing me to this thread because i know that you are a storm lover like me?

when you get trapped in lows with heat highs around,it can produce.

 

[Man Without Beard 25,219]

Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

[Allseasons-si 25,031]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

Can i extend that MWB,...more unsettled and warm with thunderstorms?

[NorthernRab 4,832]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

Pretty decent for much of Scotland actually, could produce quite a few nice warm days after the cooler uppers are filtered out. 

[Alderc 2,896]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

Ouch that first cluster is a killer. Hopefully it’ll slide straight through however it’s Bartlett of winter in summer if you know what I mean!? 

[summer blizzard 7,206]

On 04/06/2020 at 18:56, Mike Poole said:

 

8 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Yes Simon is very well respected within the Meteorology Department here at my university, definitely a worth a follow as he provides some great detailed explanations on a lot model outputs.

It's now time for the next set of model outputs?

S.L. posts here too, it's Glacier Point.

[Allseasons-si 25,031]

Only two of the gefs ens members drops the trough down the NE side of the UK at 120 and that's p4 and p9

the mean at 168,192 and 240 signals a warm fetched easterly

it has been a long day in here for me so don't expect me to post on the 00z?

i will be viewing with anticipation though

night.

Edited June 5, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Zak M 17,531]

I think the 18z GFS has been smoking something tonight, as well as some of the perturbations as these exceeded my expectations! P6 and P12 are some very warm and thundery perturbations, which is perfect for me... me encanta!! ☀️⛈️?

               

[Kentspur 2,208]

This is extraordinary the GFS and UKMO continue to refuse to meet in the middle at such a short time frame

[mb018538 10,307]

Still only 1/20 gfs ensemble members going the UKMO route at 4 days out. Amazing.

[mb018538 10,307]

Rotten ECM again....unless you like temps of 10-15c with plenty of rain?
 

UKMO at least spares the west the very worst of things by day 6, but for the SE, dig out your mac:

[mb018538 10,307]

Day 7 ECM - perhaps just cleared south enough to prevent a total washout like the 12z last night. Anyone have the corresponding ppn charts? ?

[Djdazzle 5,514]

ECM is foul - pure and simple. The Scandinavian High is no help to us whatsoever.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Djdazzle

[General Cluster 62,684]

Good morning, all...So, the GEFS 00Z carries on as usual: nothing to see here, move along!

    

    

    

    

    

But, it'd be rather boring in here, were all the models right, all of the time, wouldn't it? And the GEFS ensembles say 'no' to a cold, miserable washout:

    

    

NH profiles:

T+180:  T+384:

Curiouser and curiouser?

[I remember Atlantic 252 7,556]

GFS still wrong, on 18Z and 00Z

[Djdazzle 5,514]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS still wrong, on 18Z and 00Z

It’s getting silly now. It’s in complete denial.

[mb018538 10,307]

It wouldn’t be too bad if it planned out like NOAAs update yesterday - sadly I don’t think the trough will be centred where they have shown in Biscay. Looking more likely to be closer to the UK keeping it more unsettled.

[mb018538 10,307]

I’d also add there is still a huge level of uncertainty going forward surrounding ex-Cristobal. You can follow it through the charts above tracking through from the Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, the central US before turning into a deep low into Canada at 120. This will have an effect on the jetstream and conditions downstream too.

Edited June 6, 2020 by mb018538

[MikeC53 189]

The ECM is not quite as bad as last night but would still see some large rainfall totals for the South.

Interestingly the UKMO is making less of the trough dropping down on this run and is closer to the GFS.

 

[Alderc 2,896]

I have to say I think UKMO has shifted towards GFS this morning. It makes much less of the trough and what’s left of it looks like sliding through pretty quickly. Is a big upset on the cards? 

[bluearmy 44,588]

Still no idea ......

seriously.......

too many variables and the envelope is a bloody courier bag !

the favourite is the dropping upper trough in the short term and if that is where we go then it’s track is more likely to back west than down the North Sea 

[Djdazzle 5,514]

If (and it's a big if) GFS has this correct, we may need to do some grovelling . . .

[mushymanrob 9,495]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

It wouldn’t be too bad if it planned out like NOAAs update yesterday - sadly I don’t think the trough will be centred where they have shown in Biscay. Looking more likely to be closer to the UK keeping it more unsettled.

........... but its been consistently shown there, however yep, unsettled , warm and unsettled, muggy, thundery..