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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    27 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    It has certainly inched more towards the troughing scenario.

    Maybe there will be a middle ground - if that's possible in this setup?

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Maybe there will be a middle ground - if that's possible in this setup?

    Possibly.

    From a personal perspective it would be great to get warmth and convection working in tandem. I love a good thunderstorm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Possibly.

    From a personal perspective it would be great to get warmth and convection working in tandem. I love a good thunderstorm.

    You keep on enticing me to this thread because i know that you are a storm lover like me?

    when you get trapped in lows with heat highs around,it can produce.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060512_168.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060512_168.

    Can i extend that MWB,...more unsettled and warm with thunderstorms?

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060512_168.

    Pretty decent for much of Scotland actually, could produce quite a few nice warm days after the cooler uppers are filtered out. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!) 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060512_168.

    Ouch that first cluster is a killer. Hopefully it’ll slide straight through however it’s Bartlett of winter in summer if you know what I mean!? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    On 04/06/2020 at 18:56, Mike Poole said:

     

    8 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Yes Simon is very well respected within the Meteorology Department here at my university, definitely a worth a follow as he provides some great detailed explanations on a lot model outputs.

    It's now time for the next set of model outputs?

    S.L. posts here too, it's Glacier Point.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Only two of the gefs ens members drops the trough down the NE side of the UK at 120 and that's p4 and p9

    gens_panel_ixr0.thumb.png.9689288b2805819402f5c6a2bde39fb2.png

    the mean at 168,192 and 240 signals a warm fetched easterly

    gens-21-1-168.thumb.png.6e0235649c23110874620c5d4f5133e3.pnggens-21-1-192.thumb.png.ff6bec6d19369a18328f987fe63a75fa.pnggens-21-1-240.thumb.png.ba1246635a71f46a459416fbe8ecf2a5.png

    gens-21-0-168.thumb.png.507cd6943bda93f75c597584d730c6b8.pnggens-21-0-192.thumb.png.bc42aee73ee9936f3b8a0aaf98489337.pnggens-21-0-240.thumb.png.b0572507a2eaefcbdaf5b10b270a422e.png

    it has been a long day in here for me so don't expect me to post on the 00z?

    i will be viewing with anticipation though

    night.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    This is extraordinary the GFS and UKMO continue to refuse to meet in the middle at such a short time frame

    20200606_052938.jpg

    20200606_052955.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.070789b1f9f8c5352ce5ddf1cb64fa37.png

    Still only 1/20 gfs ensemble members going the UKMO route at 4 days out. Amazing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    778AB561-241E-4EB4-9C7A-60723CBB0B59.thumb.gif.5f8d40db4f20223e6ad55946e58e9840.gif
    FF5F5C83-7BC5-4921-B8DB-C34001D75B82.thumb.gif.647b7e1a07a86a4dfd67961ea6275603.gif

    Rotten ECM again....unless you like temps of 10-15c with plenty of rain?
     

    UKMO at least spares the west the very worst of things by day 6, but for the SE, dig out your mac:

    A9D75892-2899-4AA8-9895-4BBF7E5AEF0C.thumb.gif.899fd8d15d41d41b44e172ee57405bc9.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    60E810E3-0D6B-4EAC-AF82-7C6F17498FFD.thumb.gif.64025b2f1540f455b84f31aa2ed5871c.gif

    Day 7 ECM - perhaps just cleared south enough to prevent a total washout like the 12z last night. Anyone have the corresponding ppn charts? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    ECM is foul - pure and simple. The Scandinavian High is no help to us whatsoever.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good morning, all...So, the GEFS 00Z carries on as usual: nothing to see here, move along!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, it'd be rather boring in here, were all the models right, all of the time, wouldn't it? And the GEFS ensembles say 'no' to a cold, miserable washout:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    NH profiles:

    T+180: npsh500mean-180.png T+384:npsh500mean-384.png

    Curiouser and curiouser?:unsure2::oldgrin:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    GFS still wrong, on 18Z and 00Z

    h850t850eu.png

    It’s getting silly now. It’s in complete denial.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    97C46F10-4203-4936-96A4-00B949038784.thumb.gif.b7d215ab928befd642353e8efd76db06.gif

    It wouldn’t be too bad if it planned out like NOAAs update yesterday - sadly I don’t think the trough will be centred where they have shown in Biscay. Looking more likely to be closer to the UK keeping it more unsettled.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    96D3C135-2BAF-4996-BCC5-7D039B0FDA51.thumb.png.7e834eacef83e538df6ef082fe5b555d.png03901C7B-4831-4B0B-8531-709722F48C4C.thumb.png.ad075e667adc6522f65368dd8ed093c4.pngC5FAF627-1D38-4F25-83A5-724E81FC9D89.thumb.png.67f52eeb67caf916f4fbfd74ac26ab30.png5BD5C42B-962B-47F0-B91A-DD04210429E9.thumb.png.674ce85a8b90c4d170fa26109424f60a.png

    I’d also add there is still a huge level of uncertainty going forward surrounding ex-Cristobal. You can follow it through the charts above tracking through from the Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, the central US before turning into a deep low into Canada at 120. This will have an effect on the jetstream and conditions downstream too.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

    The ECM is not quite as bad as last night but would still see some large rainfall totals for the South.

    Interestingly the UKMO is making less of the trough dropping down on this run and is closer to the GFS.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I have to say I think UKMO has shifted towards GFS this morning. It makes much less of the trough and what’s left of it looks like sliding through pretty quickly. Is a big upset on the cards? 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Still no idea ......

    seriously.......

    too many variables and the envelope is a bloody courier bag !

    the favourite is the dropping upper trough in the short term and if that is where we go then it’s track is more likely to back west than down the North Sea 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    If (and it's a big if) GFS has this correct, we may need to do some grovelling . . .

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    97C46F10-4203-4936-96A4-00B949038784.thumb.gif.b7d215ab928befd642353e8efd76db06.gif

    It wouldn’t be too bad if it planned out like NOAAs update yesterday - sadly I don’t think the trough will be centred where they have shown in Biscay. Looking more likely to be closer to the UK keeping it more unsettled.

    ........... but its been consistently shown there, however yep, unsettled , warm and unsettled, muggy, thundery..

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