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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    The cfs v2 model (9 month run) is still showing an cool and unsettled picture for July. 

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Hard to predict what will transpire over the coming weekend. Looks like a typical broad long fetch west/south westerly. So probably a lot of cloud for western areas with drizzle at times. Further east and particularly to the east of high ground there is the chance of conditions turning very warm and humid. 

    UKMO/ECM/GFS 18z

    UW144-21.GIF?29-19   ECM1-144.GIF?29-0   gfs-0-138.png?18

    The UKMO looking the slowest at this point, possibly offering the highest temperatures due to lighter winds and a sniff of a more southerly component to the winds 

    Beyond that, probably more of the same, kind of typical that at this point we are looking at the most westerly dominated period of weather for quite some time. However it just looks like pretty normal conditions (albeit quite windy at times), some fairly dry and often warm in the south, cooler and more unsettled generally to the north. There are signs that high pressure to push further north, but it remains at a point where I would like to see some easing down of the jetstream to actually see this being achieved.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    The cfs v2 model (9 month run) is still showing an cool and unsettled picture for July. 

    Buy shares in Hawaiian Tropic.

    The CFS must be the most unreliable model out there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Decent ridge building on the pub run, T180, likely we will have to wait not more than an week for summer to be back where we left off:

    7F7B057B-7513-49E4-89B4-010BF1137264.thumb.png.b73550169cd1f73ef6164b666b51161e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    3 minutes ago, Downpour said:

    Buy shares in Hawaiian Tropic.

    The CFS must be the most unreliable model out there.

    Hmm i wouldnt be so sure about that this model was correct in predicting the tragic winter when Gav Partridge used it for his Christmas updates.  Not one of the updates last November showed anything else but Low pressure barging through off the Atlantic from December right until March.  Lets hope its wrong in what its showing now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    That's quite a big shift in the clusters for D8 - a couple of days ago most of the clusters had strong ridges over the UK. Clearly underestimated the strength of the Atlantic. Or is it just a one-off? 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062912_192.

    D11-D15, no signal strong enough to report on yet. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

    Is it a bit early to be sure it’s down to La Niña?

    Directly, yes. However the argument in favour tends to be that as a would be event tries to imprint on the atmosphere it drags down GLAAM and keeps the MJO bottled up near Indonesia. 

    The Euro and GFS currently suggest a sustained negative bias to angular momentum (not the best for the European summer).

    spacer.png

    image.thumb.jpeg.046561fa29b521d2c963f01320fb9041.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    18z GEFS p8 is hot!

    gens-8-1-264.thumb.png.b741f88b9e7bd33b4d542527c0c1c56a.png   8_288_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.cedc113e4beab0bf8551a7b9c1cc45c3.png   gens-8-0-288.thumb.png.b4bd04158e88c0591137e733182773de.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Directly, yes. However the argument in favour tends to be that as a would be event tries to imprint on the atmosphere it drags down GLAAM and keeps the MJO bottled up near Indonesia. 

    The Euro and GFS currently suggest a sustained negative bias to angular momentum (not the best for the European summer).

    spacer.png

    image.thumb.jpeg.046561fa29b521d2c963f01320fb9041.jpeg

    I've noticed a lot recently that modelling initially goes gung ho for Azores HP ridging only for blocking to the N being underestimated and ultimately the jet being further S than first modelled.

    To me this is a typical trait of a solar min summer- and I was suspecting that this would be the case a while back.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Looks like a shunt northward for the upcoming weekend's warm snap, according to this morning's GFS 00Z. And the entire run is nowhere near as bad as feared...It doesn't take much 'divine tinkering' for typical 'La Nina' or typical 'low solar' (or whatever) seasons to evolve into something altogether less typical:?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    GEFS 18Z ens look fairly run-of-the-mill to me; so, no reason to write off summer just yet!:gathering:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Again this morning the ECM has quite high temperatures for Sunday in Central / Eastern England, with temperatures in the mid to high 20s.

    Far cooler on the south coast, in the west and in Scotland. 

    Quickly cooling down again in the new week but with high pressure poised to return quickly in the south. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Again this morning the ECM has quite high temperatures for Sunday in Central / Eastern England, with temperatures in the mid to high 20s.

    Far cooler on the south coast, in the west and in Scotland. 

    Quickly cooling down again in the new week but with high pressure poised to return quickly in the south. 

    I’m not so sure - this 192 chart doesn’t look great:

    BA8521F2-736B-42A3-A6F0-A85E397C61D2.thumb.png.d243206842c34a0b2c6a11572697a960.png

    Greenland high, and that low will likely track straight over the UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    03FBE2BF-EF16-4EAB-B766-F1C3EAC14AF9.thumb.png.1dfb3af9ac3c7ffc019a04b54ed6cba0.png

    768C7F0F-9C52-4DA1-B934-087DACBD4B4C.thumb.jpeg.c8f50997b7dc49ab079c09b2e63ba3b6.jpeg
     

    Lo and behold, low moving in. I’m really struggling to see how we get to that week 3 anomaly by the 13th. Even the week 2 looks wrong with those dark blues over Greenland when the GFS, GEM and ECM all show the opposite.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Pretty uninspiring EC det but the mean continues to look good.

    Suspect det will be towards the bottom of the suite again...

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Not a brilliant ECM but I’ve seen worse interesting there is not much change from present to day 10 you have the combination of Scandi trough and Greenland blocking.

    D5684D63-791A-45E4-AB62-B960C485BC27.thumb.png.4e1973a9567251f152d4466f5f2e221b.png53B161DE-DECB-46AF-975D-BBB0CE1BE058.thumb.png.ab9d050bbbbbabaa870a74f5aee1bc73.png
     

    AO forecast looking well, negative.  

    C244EA36-2229-4F3C-9817-7A1EB8AD8630.thumb.gif.14c0f928475670aeaee51d9675b10981.gif
     

    NAO currently most negative it has been seen since early April.

    21D8312C-C09C-41A5-B02C-DAF9649E7826.thumb.gif.0e5b201075764faff2bbfcfd9eae2c97.gif
     

    We have been largely free of this northern blocking this warm season so far, so it is a bit of a concern to me not only to sea ice. 

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    Again this morning the ECM has quite high temperatures for Sunday in Central / Eastern England, with temperatures in the mid to high 20s.

    Far cooler on the south coast, in the west and in Scotland. 

    Quickly cooling down again in the new week but with high pressure poised to return quickly in the south. 

    it really is a swipe 

    EC4EA907-9CFE-4F73-A662-7DFF55533579.thumb.png.af130f0db119147e65ab768e177ed137.png

    First week of July set to see below average conditions everywhere..

    52D1DD5D-F5FA-4285-94F7-2F3716EB5ACE.thumb.png.41747d10020a7f96a2be70e178a9e67c.pngB02EE026-0F7B-4D99-B6EA-A08D40C869E2.thumb.png.94e02260f5a5ade33d418cc8dfa810bc.png
     

    Quickly turning into a wet summer for NW parts.

     

    98B7F5B1-2E91-4DF6-86CE-6030426277A9.thumb.png.349a140206d7f9f90e8c38d2135cc3f3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    10 hours ago, Zak M said:

    18z GEFS p8 is hot!

    gens-8-1-264.thumb.png.b741f88b9e7bd33b4d542527c0c1c56a.png   8_288_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.cedc113e4beab0bf8551a7b9c1cc45c3.png   gens-8-0-288.thumb.png.b4bd04158e88c0591137e733182773de.png

    That's one big straw clutch Zak! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

    That's one big straw clutch Zak! 

    Not really a great deal to get excited about at the moment! Just plodding along with nothingness. Probably explains why it’s so quiet on here today!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    it really is a swipe 

    EC4EA907-9CFE-4F73-A662-7DFF55533579.thumb.png.af130f0db119147e65ab768e177ed137.png

    First week of July set to see below average conditions everywhere..

    52D1DD5D-F5FA-4285-94F7-2F3716EB5ACE.thumb.png.41747d10020a7f96a2be70e178a9e67c.pngB02EE026-0F7B-4D99-B6EA-A08D40C869E2.thumb.png.94e02260f5a5ade33d418cc8dfa810bc.png
     

    Quickly turning into a wet summer for NW parts.

     

    98B7F5B1-2E91-4DF6-86CE-6030426277A9.thumb.png.349a140206d7f9f90e8c38d2135cc3f3.png

    Yep, very fair analysis. A one day wonder, maybe two if we're lucky, and of course maybe none if the pattern flattens further.

    Weak high pressure does return in the south for a few days the following week but it has dragged in cold air for the north, so not enough time to heat up before the Atlantic moves in again.

    Looking pretty flat now until mid-month, and even a tendency to a Scandi trough re-emerging which will make it harder to achieve hot weather.

    Clusters seem to have misread the signals a few days ago. Generally, the clusters have picked up the major signals in the 11-15 day period all year long - it's not often they miss something big, but at the moment, this appears to be one of those times. 

    However - a little reminder - both May and June had considerably below average starts, and hot spells at the end which the ensembles gave no sign of at the start of each month. I'm not suggesting this month will go the same way at all, but just a reminder that the pattern we see now is not necessarily the pattern for the rest of the summer!

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