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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    A very odd looking NOAA 6-10 day outlook last evening, chart below.

    It appears to have moved the low centre from about 30W to around 10E, not possible of course so treat the above chart with suspicion!

     

    I dont understand this, can you explain it further please.. from my pov these charts appear to be evolving smoothly , so i must be misunderstanding something.. ?

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, mathematician said:

    If you like hot weather you will be pleased looking at the model today. In the long run it seems like summer it's going to come back with a vengeance! 

    At what timescale?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    2C290B0F-492E-4F6D-B2DA-6CAC88668162.thumb.png.f77d79bf9b1e9165c779a25258535060.png

    The op style progression is in cluster 3....flatter option still preferred at the moment, but this one needs watching. Cluster 2 sort of in between. 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    I dont understand this, can you explain it further please.. from my pov these charts appear to be evolving smoothly , so i must be misunderstanding something.. ?

    Hi m

    I'll double check it's not me hallucinating and send a pm

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Hi m

    I'll double check it's not me hallucinating and send a pm

    the GFS EC mean are similar... to the NOAA .. hence my confusion here.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    I dont understand this, can you explain it further please.. from my pov these charts appear to be evolving smoothly , so i must be misunderstanding something.. ?

    image.thumb.png.8e0e727574a5813d02343bb5819fc172.pngLooking slightly better in 14 days time. image.thumb.png.5bfd85d3f2bb50411c46cf6d2aa64178.png

    Edited by NApplewhite
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    the GFS EC mean are similar... to the NOAA .. hence my confusion here.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    In my pm mushy

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

    image.thumb.png.8e0e727574a5813d02343bb5819fc172.pngLooking slightly better in 14 days time. image.thumb.png.5bfd85d3f2bb50411c46cf6d2aa64178.png

    Sadly no anomaly support (for anything longer then a short ridging event)

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Just viewed the current cfs run right out to end of July and its not a pretty sight - It would be below average CET for July and above average rainfall if this came off.  Looks like high autumn than high summer.  

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There’s some quite misleading charts from the Gfs 6z operational which would have you believe there were widespread storms going on right now..but the reality is there are only a few dotted around at the moment with many areas fine and sunny with just  some fair weather / high cloud..this doesn’t preclude the possibility that the storms will become more numerous in the coming hours!⛈️

    D7BAB8E0-16E9-4F94-8ED4-70ABA7112BE0.thumb.png.274fe13e32a0edb191ed5245215ebfc8.pngF044F94F-568F-486F-9602-C482C60EB3ED.thumb.png.79442a98b4fe23ed23d378d0bb979a2f.pngAAD3D3EB-6ECB-44DE-BCCC-991EFA2DED4D.thumb.png.d8abedee251d26c9dbcdf42cdf9a17f8.png

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

    Just viewed the current cfs run right out to end of July and its not a pretty sight - It would be below average CET for July and above average rainfall if this came off.  Looks like high autumn than high summer.  

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

     

    One of the problems with CFS is that it gets an idea and just runs with it. You see it in the winter months where one day its predicted a 1963 rehash and the next day its suggesting 1988.

    My reading of the current output is that its largely normal fare for the time of year. Drier and warmer the further SE you go which was ever thus. Don't rule out some heat in the south either as only takes subtle tweaks to get the temps up at this time of year.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

    Just viewed the current cfs run right out to end of July and its not a pretty sight - It would be below average CET for July and above average rainfall if this came off.  Looks like high autumn than high summer.  

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

     

    I wouldn't take to much notice mate.. I posted CFS charts just a few days ago that was pointing to lovely Conditions into next mid month. If your gonna be Influenced by longer range models stick with ECMWF.. yes it can be wrong, but it's certainly more on the ball than CFS and doesn't suffer from these major wild swings in output that CFS tends to suffer. Looking at the EXETER update seems pretty consistent with the main model also, certainly looks to be some decent conditions at times through July.. @JON SNOW yes mate today's forecast as been a little wide of the mark, heavy thundery downpours have not materialised at all, instead clear blue skies and Hot.. Just goes to show how difficult the detail can be in forecasting even at short range. 

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Perhaps Monday's GFS 12Z will come as bit of relief, for some of us... 28C is a tad warm, for working on the ground; 20C is better::oldgrin:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Some signs of improvement starting to show up around 144. Both GFS and UKMO are better than their 0z offerings.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Some signs of improvement starting to show up around 144. Both GFS and UKMO are better than their 0z offerings.

    Indeed, Dj... and, by Friday things are starting to look quite good. Still too early to be getting carried-away though::oldgrin:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
    2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    How likely is CFS likely to be correct at that distance, one would not need even the fingers on one hand for the % figure!

    The CFS showed June as pretty poor and it's been pretty decent. It actually shows July as broadly similar to June to my eyes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    43 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    The GEM ends  just smashing.. And just quickly to add from me on those terrible events in Scotland, hope all our regular scottish members are OK, because that's an horrific event that can affect many people, what with Covid, BLM and now this, RIP to those who lost there lives.. Sad events just lately, hopefully the weather will be cheering us up again very shortly.. ?☀️

    gem-0-216.png

    gem-0-240 (1).png

    gem-1-240 (1).png

    tenor-26.gif

    And the GEFS 12Z ensembles are nae bad, either, Matt. Some right stonkers in there -- that I'm sure @JON SNOW will soon expand upon::oldgood:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    And the NH profiles;

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    Nice to see the nascent Scandi trough simply disappear too! image.png.ec2f8425a9cf876bd28a0f393aebbf02.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    It’s been a few days since the Mighty Navgem had an outing and it ends quite nicely .

    6E70A202-BE30-49DC-A520-EFE54374EAD0.png

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