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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Signal for rising GLAAM with a large question mark.

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As I said to @mb018538 the other day, if you quote that, you need to explain why the start point is different to the CFS one.  Massively.  Models shouldn’t be wrong at day 0!  Otherwise I’m ignoring it, particularly because I cannot access the plot itself and therefore verify what it is purporting to show......caution advised in taking things from that plot.

And another thing.  I actually think the current unsettled output is overdoing it, and we will be back to something resembling summer by next weekend.  (Prepare to be shot down in flames if I’m wrong!).

Edited by Mike Poole
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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

Posted Images

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, parallel offering some crumbs of comfort too tonight, 1020 on the mean at day 10 should give a good chance of largely settled weather there for the south.

5E81748C-106E-4BEF-9092-EE2C22683828.thumb.gif.1c99dd32fd861d09ad98ac12a4f23f51.gif

So the likelihood is a rather unsettled spell, more so to the NW, and a return to settled at day 8-10.  And the signal for rising AAM is still there too:

D5198F80-4331-4BBA-AC04-8ADD89F04E04.thumb.png.f28faf178f72e298b1feefd6adc380f3.png

And the first part of that rise is now very much in the reliable.

Hopefully things will turn out OK again Mike.. Just running the EC46 and it does extend High Pressure from the SW towards next weekend and it looks like persisting into the following week at this stage. 

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9 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Hopefully things will turn out OK again Mike.. Just running the EC46 and it does extend High Pressure from the SW towards next weekend and it looks like persisting into the following week at this stage. 

Well that is ‘the plan’ but the op runs of the last couple of days have suggested a raised spanner, ready to be thrown in the works.  I think they are overreacting.

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24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

As I said to @mb018538 the other day, if you quote that, you need to explain why the start point is different to the CFS one.  Massively.  Models shouldn’t be wrong at day 0!  Otherwise I’m ignoring it, particularly because I cannot access the plot itself and therefore verify what it is purporting to show......caution advised in taking things from that plot.

And another thing.  I actually think the current unsettled output is overdoing it, and we will be back to something resembling summer by next weekend.  (Prepare to be shot down in flames if I’m wrong!).

Apparently the CFS also calculates from a lower resolution.

Moreover though the CFS forecast us to hit bottom on the 13th then head more or less straight back up while the Euro went too high and still got it closer.

In a battle of a GFS based dataset vs the Euro I would bet that the later verifies at range better than the former.

That said we do have a test for the 5th July. Euro said -1 yesterday, CFS said above 0. 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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To sum up the EC46 out to the final 3rd of July.. We seem to have a pressure build showing towards next weekend, this perhaps holding firm into the following week.. Beyond that I'm calling a NW/SE split, there should be decent amounts of fine spells as the Azores ridges into the South quite often.. At this stage I'm not seeing big heat,but this can change quite readily with the orientation of High and Low Pressure, so I'm not convinced by that. Also worth noting is the far NW of the country as high precipitation amounts towards mid month and beyond, in excess of 50-70mm...Central/Southern and SE parts have much lower amounts.. 20-30mm..hence a NW/SE split... Low pressure still looks to Influence that neck of the woods more frequently.. ?

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GFS T192 shows the other possibility, which I think is more likely that the trough is in the Atlantic, bit surprised at the depth of the low, but that is surely uncertain and subject to modification, T192:

FDBE41EA-78DA-4530-869C-F99ECF959181.thumb.png.882d28c17e7aca5ca690fe723b221cb2.png

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18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T192 shows the other possibility, which I think is more likely that the trough is in the Atlantic, bit surprised at the depth of the low, but that is surely uncertain and subject to modification, T192:

FDBE41EA-78DA-4530-869C-F99ECF959181.thumb.png.882d28c17e7aca5ca690fe723b221cb2.png

Such a difference to the ECM at 192 (albeit 6 hours difference, but you get the picture)

image.thumb.png.14d33ee911ceda6fdcdfd2b3594cde7c.png

I am happy to place my 10p bet that the GFS low will not come to fruition as shown on the pub run! 

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Good morning peeps... And what a sticky night that was!:oldgrin:

GFS 00Z op tentatively suggests that some kind of extension, from the Azores region, could develop towards mid-July...? In the interim, a cooler (though I doubt anyone will freeze to death!:oldlaugh:) more changeable interlude looks almost certain...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Unfortunately, only the 18Z GEFS ensembles are available, so far... so, here goes!

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

NH profiles:

npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

Have a good day, folks and enjoy the storms...Hi ho, hi ho...?‍?:oldlaugh:

 

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9 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

Hopefully things will turn out OK again Mike.. Just running the EC46 and it does extend High Pressure from the SW towards next weekend and it looks like persisting into the following week at this stage. 

 

8 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

To sum up the EC46 out to the final 3rd of July.. We seem to have a pressure build showing towards next weekend, this perhaps holding firm into the following week.. Beyond that I'm calling a NW/SE split, there should be decent amounts of fine spells as the Azores ridges into the South quite often.. At this stage I'm not seeing big heat,but this can change quite readily with the orientation of High and Low Pressure, so I'm not convinced by that. Also worth noting is the far NW of the country as high precipitation amounts towards mid month and beyond, in excess of 50-70mm...Central/Southern and SE parts have much lower amounts.. 20-30mm..hence a NW/SE split... Low pressure still looks to Influence that neck of the woods more frequently.. ?

Ec op and para both singing from the same hymn sheet in the unreliable timeframes .....although this build of heights fits in with the majority of eps clusters from the 12z 

Edited by bluearmy
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Very autumnal weather in near future for many; blustery and showery, exceptionally cool conditions for NW parts expected this Sunday... 10-12°C max is downright horrific, approaching the warmest time of the year. 

71E0F1E2-F506-4812-9750-5B80DDB3DBF3.thumb.jpeg.54d178b2d5bada778ddc597db7c94191.jpegBD4F8A95-1671-4AD6-9CE4-65488CEB2686.thumb.png.016c62fd7a488dd6306e2d57693b98c7.png

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Morning all, ECM springs a nice surprise at 240h. Not really to be unexpected as the pattern so far this summer keeps returning to a default position. (ie) High pressure building over the British Isles, Central European and Atlantic trough dominating. Cooler and windier intrudes fairly short lived . Reasons to be joyful for you lot going by this chart.

 C

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

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The 00z and fax definitely paint an unsettled and changeable picture right out to 6/7 days. Just heard some weather bod on LBC london mention wet and autumnal. Still, we've had some nice weather so can't complain. Atlantic taking over now. 

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40 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, ECM springs a nice surprise at 240h. Not really to be unexpected as the pattern so far this summer keeps returning to a default position. (ie) High pressure building over the British Isles, Central European and Atlantic trough dominating. Cooler and windier intrudes fairly short lived . Reasons to be joyful for you lot going by this chart.

 C

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 cool NW, comfortably warm SE for a couple of weeks. rain fairly general week 1, drier in SE later

 

GFS: LP Sub 28th/Mon 29th over Scotland, decaying with some N-ly air entrained. New large LP in Atlantic Sat 4th moving off to Faeroes Sat 11th and filling, some warm air entrained at first esp in SE but later cooler stuff coming down the back edge. W-ly zonal stuff at end of run.

 

GEFS: In the S becoming cool and dry until Mon 29th; then average and damp  until Sat 4th after which a lot of scatter, mean close to norm but o and control going in opposite direction and one outlier 13C above norm! Fairly dry for this period. Scotland a bit below average temp to the 4th then like the S, bits and pieces of rain throughout.

 

ECM: Much less active Atlantic from Sat 4th, in fact major new area of HP on Mon 6th covering UK and with warm air to boot.

 

FAX keeps LP more active over UK for several days with secondaries still forming on Tue 30th

 

Not a lot of agreement this morning.

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, ECM springs a nice surprise at 240h. Not really to be unexpected as the pattern so far this summer keeps returning to a default position. (ie) High pressure building over the British Isles, Central European and Atlantic trough dominating. Cooler and windier intrudes fairly short lived . Reasons to be joyful for you lot going by this chart.

 C

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

The ECM Parallel is also showing something similar for days 9 and 10.  Hopefully this will be the way out of our upcoming unsettled spell?

image.thumb.png.d2019992ecee67e0c16ab701246b4051.pngimage.thumb.png.beb68d312ba036825abd2a6c960bb6e0.png  

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Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean it’s gradually turning increasingly unsettled and cooler but longer term I’m seeing signs of improvement with the Azores high / ridge building in!?

69587230-D44F-4A30-9A67-15776153AFBA.thumb.gif.138e3491f14c177affabc199998a7816.gif146E0204-B4B1-45DD-9741-77231C6310A7.thumb.gif.06884b154f2de97584d73f3c56e9b431.gif41D7CBE1-89B0-4D40-ACA5-B755EA4FBE23.thumb.gif.db3d68f46d9806ad07fe8046a366c264.gif44D645CB-6093-43E8-AA93-8E6E295AADE9.thumb.gif.be53c5e1b551939b19be3ad180141008.gif

 

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05D418D8-83E2-4F4D-87CF-CDFA2075ABA9.thumb.png.134a39d40b4280c81ba7e62f4c62810c.png6361D947-9AB4-42BE-9D39-D43C8D18F6C7.thumb.png.a74f68c552961701accf916086d7da06.png

Remember - the trend is your friend. Marked increase in SLP and 500mb heights on the ensembles into day 9 and 10. Keep your eyes peeled!

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11 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean it’s gradually turning increasingly unsettled and cooler but longer term I’m seeing signs of improvement with the Azores high / ridge building in!?

69587230-D44F-4A30-9A67-15776153AFBA.thumb.gif.138e3491f14c177affabc199998a7816.gif146E0204-B4B1-45DD-9741-77231C6310A7.thumb.gif.06884b154f2de97584d73f3c56e9b431.gif41D7CBE1-89B0-4D40-ACA5-B755EA4FBE23.thumb.gif.db3d68f46d9806ad07fe8046a366c264.gif44D645CB-6093-43E8-AA93-8E6E295AADE9.thumb.gif.be53c5e1b551939b19be3ad180141008.gif

 

Its been a while since we have seen the Azores high and not an Atlantic ridge/ Euro/Scandi highs

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Looking at the 51 individual ECM ensembles for this morning, it is clear that next week is unlikely to be redeemed now and to expect rain at times.

However, the signal for the Azores High to build back in to the UK at D9/D10 is really quite strong for such a long way out. About 80% of members do this to some extent.

Impossible to say what the shape of such a ridge will be at this stage (and therefore impossible to predict how warm it could get), but, for example, on the control run, the southern half of the UK is comfortably under high pressure for the whole of the week 6th July to 10th July, with temperatures returning to the mid/high 20s in the south, with the northern half occasionally affected by fronts. 

Other ensembles differ in the detail, but generally agree in the direction.

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Just now, NApplewhite said:

Its been a while since we have seen the Azores high and not an Atlantic ridge/ Euro/Scandi highs

When was the last time the Azores high paid a visit? 

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27 minutes ago, mathematician said:

If you like hot weather you will be pleased looking at the model today. In the long run it seems like summer it's going to come back with a vengeance! 

Yes. One of things that has raised my eyebrows are the thicknesses/geopotential heights coming out of N.Africa and into Spain at around 10 days on both the gfs and ecm 00z runs!

28c 850s for Seville are probably not record breaking for there however that heat could be tapped into if a building high pressure aligns favourably for the UK and would make this spell look like a bit of hot soup with a red hot carvery on offer instead!

Edited by Paceyboy
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