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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Usual setup though, my area does badly with thunder/lightning off this setup, plumes nearly always break down with a whimper, unlike areas in the east

same here these setups in more recent times have favoured the East more than central and more especially western areas

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2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

same here these setups in more recent times have favoured the East more than central and more especially western areas

Oh, come on, Gord:

I spent all of my younger (sub-30 years' old) days hearing about severe thunderstorms in East Anglia, Kent and up the East Coast; and then spent an almost thunderless 21 years in Inverness... These days, though, @Mr Frost and @Kirkcaldy Weather  and @Stuart get way more storms than I do...

If I were Donald (Female Body Inspector) Trump, I'd buy myself a private jet! :oldlaugh:

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7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Oh, come on, Gord:

I spent all of my younger (sub-30 years' old) days hearing about severe thunderstorms in East Anglia, Kent and up the East Coast; and then spent an almost thunderless 21 years in Inverness... These days, though, @Mr Frost and @Kirkcaldy Weather  and @Stuart get way more storms than I do...

If I were Donald (Female Body Inspector) Trump, I'd buy myself a private jet! :oldlaugh:

OK perhaps I exaggerated a little bit

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Posted (edited)

According to the ECM 0z ensemble mean, essentially I think we are looking at a changeable north / south split beyond the current very summery spell, however, that’s a broad brushstrokes view and it’s not as straightforward as that with some days warmer / cooler than others and likewise some days more unsettled / settled than others..but in general, the rule of thumb is that the south / southeast looks less unsettled and warmer than the north / northwest.
42B0BB95-62DB-4619-9F53-CFB8CD3EEDD5.thumb.gif.810818104e6b0956a1fba30f494de102.gifA27F0FA8-DDBF-430B-9A94-502F7C81F97C.thumb.gif.75f2801f009893524098e97852be555b.gifAD60CEAA-42C7-47FF-A594-AACE4ACAC724.thumb.gif.c4128896dcb7533de06b5e75187caa97.gif30CB8E8B-B7A7-44FB-BCF7-96D3D3FB98D6.thumb.gif.e0f051957f0949eb2b251d1aed77aafd.gifF8E0BA01-0304-4C0B-8F6C-B2D9B84C1DD3.thumb.gif.55eb5edcc109591128f22592b3021045.gif20761E19-7179-4C68-8295-AD28D5BF837C.thumb.gif.4d8ea984f726edf23f13941cca0eb55d.gif

Edited by JON SNOW
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15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Amazingly the ECM clusters for D11-D15 are split exactly the same as Monday's - 27 members for a less settled and cooler picture dominated by a Scandi trough, and 24 members sending a ridge over the UK (heatwave potential).

Not really much to say, therefore, only time will tell!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062400_300.

I’m not so sure - doesn’t look like any wave breaking going on, if you run that through it just goes flat again. Just looks like alternating between weak ridges and troughs at the moment.

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Is it likely East Anglia will be a bit hotter tomorrow, given 30C doesn't seem to have been reached?

The weather apps, websites and models still seem unsure which day between now and Friday will be the hottest for the eastern counties.

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2 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Is it likely East Anglia will be a bit hotter tomorrow, given 30C doesn't seem to have been reached?

The weather apps, websites and models still seem unsure which day between now and Friday will be the hottest for the eastern counties.

FE7C6589-C094-421F-B4E6-6492BFED6EAB.thumb.jpeg.68d6c48dc533f0957212b205e8fabf48.jpeg

Made 30c here. Similar tomorrow, maybe a degree higher.

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39 minutes ago, Singularity said:

cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png wk3.wk4_20200623.z500.png


Today, CFSv2's a bit keener on  some climbs in AAM during the 1st half of July.

Before then, a recovery to near-neutral gives us a rock on which to try and build that +AAM fortress. On Twitter, I've started seeing a growing appetite for +AAM style outcomes by mid-July, among meteorologists / climatologists working in the field of longer-term tropical patterns.

Even so, I remain of an open mind as to which way things will go. That period 28th June to 5th July is so 'on the fence' as La Nina battles against the rest of the tropics.

Glad you mentioned that, I've noticed Exeter talking along the lines of more widely settled and much warmer period towards next mid month! One to watch for sure. 

UKMO not that bad tbh, at least  a warming possible beyond day 6. ?

UW72-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

FE7C6589-C094-421F-B4E6-6492BFED6EAB.thumb.jpeg.68d6c48dc533f0957212b205e8fabf48.jpeg

Made 30c here. Similar tomorrow, maybe a degree higher.

What is worse,to have had and lost or to have never had at all? ??

6C366E17-645E-4C87-8521-C0556A56DAD5.png

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58 minutes ago, Singularity said:

cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png wk3.wk4_20200623.z500.png


Today, CFSv2's a bit keener on  some climbs in AAM during the 1st half of July.

Before then, a recovery to near-neutral gives us a rock on which to try and build that +AAM fortress. On Twitter, I've started seeing a growing appetite for +AAM style outcomes by mid-July, among meteorologists / climatologists working in the field of longer-term tropical patterns.

Even so, I remain of an open mind as to which way things will go. That period 28th June to 5th July is so 'on the fence' as La Nina battles against the rest of the tropics.

While it may well rise regardless its worth saying that the CFS appears to not even be starting at the right point correctly for whatever region, hence why it is in conflict with the Euro. 

spacer.png

I shall try to remember to check back on July 5th as to whether we are near -1 or above 0 but June so far would suggest that the Euro is odds on. 

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Posted (edited)

Speaking of complicated model output, our next challenge is a retrograding ridge into the beginning of next week and the subsequent forcing delivered from the artic profile. The GFS wants to quickly establish a trough to the north east and cold air descends that way. The UKMO/GEM not so convinced and actually manage to build heights close to the U.K. again next week. 
Day 6 GFS

image.thumb.png.76ef7e8c2f2ad00b420ada9630f3dc36.png
 

UKMO and GEM

image.thumb.gif.da3741ae5b9743431fd9def05808c024.gifimage.thumb.png.97c5f8e0468dbbf8eade2e478094ff23.png   
 

Not a lot of confidence for next week, but any kind of ridge near to the U.K. with residual low heights in the Atlantic could produce something reasonable for many. Could be struggling towards the north west though again (sorry).

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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33 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Glad you mentioned that, I've noticed Exeter talking along the lines of more widely settled and much warmer period towards next mid month! One to watch for sure. 

UKMO not that bad tbh, at least  a warming possible beyond day 6. ?

UW72-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

That just looks zonal to me. Ridge, trough, ridge.

12z GFS poor out to day 10 again. 

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36 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That just looks zonal to me. Ridge, trough, ridge.

12z GFS poor out to day 10 again. 

I can take that if it has a bit of mobility and the odd ridge comes In for 2-3 days to quieten things down. As long as it’s not low stuck over the UK with no mobility then it’s slightly less rubbish.

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37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I can take that if it has a bit of mobility and the odd ridge comes In for 2-3 days to quieten things down. As long as it’s not low stuck over the UK with no mobility then it’s slightly less rubbish.

Seconded.

Of course,the further SE you are,the better.

The Penninines do a great job lapping up precipitation in a westerly pattern.

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Well after this weeks heat and sunshine, assuming the models are correct, things are taking a turn for the worse, for a few days at least.  However, this is not going to be a total washout by any means, sunshine and showers will be the order of the day for many although temps will be below average with nighttime minima back into single digits widely across the UK (no complaints from me there!).

That said, just looking at the ECM rolling out, there's enough of a divergence between the ECM/GFS/UKMO at 96 to have little confidence what happens thereafter

image.thumb.png.e88a95ea9be81bde8a04c5fce9ccf337.pngimage.thumb.png.115af4e14b2654b4a9bc8a142810b747.pngimage.thumb.png.36d2160f3f1b4a8e2ba00cd0181e0ec2.png    

Still keeping fingers crossed for a Friday thundery breakdown, certainly the CAPE is looking juicy for Friday afternoon across the country!

image.thumb.png.f51af2eed0e580c42c42c16f7e49c011.pngimage.thumb.png.f7d014b4c9993b60cf9983ad6aea95be.png 

 

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Can’t we tell the weather is heading downhill - no comments on the ecm at all! Hardly surprising - it’s dreadful. Especially for the folks in the NW, Wales and W Scotland. Another 100-150mm of rain shown in places.

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12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Can’t we tell the weather is heading downhill - no comments on the ecm at all! Hardly surprising - it’s dreadful. Especially for the folks in the NW, Wales and W Scotland. Another 100-150mm of rain shown in places.

Doesn't look too bad for the SE corner .Perhaps Atlantic grot penetrating even the SE if that horrid 12z EC det is near the mark.

Lets see where it sits in the suite but yes, whichever way you look at things, the NW is going to get wet.

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ECM 12 is awful outlier from Saturday onwards right to the end of the run, a real punishment for this week if that comes off, It will be back to the long cold days and turning on the heating at night. 

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Can’t we tell the weather is heading downhill - no comments on the ecm at all! Hardly surprising - it’s dreadful. Especially for the folks in the NW, Wales and W Scotland. Another 100-150mm of rain shown in places.

It's an absolute shocker. We're paying for that desert like Spring.

Just as the NI schools come off on holiday too.

 

Edited by mountain shadow
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Quiet in here today, the models must be showing poor fayre. Alas they are especially for the north, lots of rain and cooler than average. June shaping up to be a wet month, and a very mixed one.

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Posted (edited)

The ECM mean does tend to improve beyond a week, especially towards the SW.. Its a little mixed in the shorter term, but nothing horrendous, I sometimes get the impression World War 3 as broken out on here judging by how quite it goes over a few poor runs.. Plenty of Summer left just yet.. 

Oh and another positive is Heights over Greenland on the mean are less intense than the op indicated.. ☀️?

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

tenor-17.gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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  • Showers in the north and west again ahead of a hot end to the week

    A weather front will bring showery rain to western and northern regions today, as those further southeast enjoy warm sunny spells. Heat then starts to build for the end of the week with 35c on the cards in the southeast. Read the full update here

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