Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Guest]

GFS just about hangs onto the heat in the south east and not quite as bullish as UKMO, showers breaking out further west which I assume would be thundery!

Meant to be playing golf in Newbury on Friday, was hoping to get baked, not stuck by lightning!!

Being perched on the north west of Europe really is rubbish!

Edited June 20, 2020 by Guest

[Guest]

Friday's chart from the GFS 12z has imports written all over it. Looking more likely that we break down Friday night - hopefully something thundery! 

 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Neither is the gfs at 144 hours!!but tuesday to thursday hot and sunny before storms hit on friday!!

GFS still has 29c in the SE on Friday. UKMO May have a bit of warmth in the SE again, but the low is approaching fast!

[Methuselah]

Well, Friday looks like it could be interesting...? And, what's the point of four hot, sultry days, if things don't end up going bang!

    

Edited June 20, 2020 by General Cluster

[Guest]

Well GFS is just yuck now by Saturday, with fronts, drizzle, tons of cloud and temps struggling for many to just 16-18C, only the extreme east reaches the low 20s now. That's a big old change from this morning. GFS & UKMO 12z's both the poorest output we've seen in a few days now, Hope this isn't one of spells that we chip away at and before we know the breakdown is here after a couple of days of decent conditions.

BBC forecast for the week ahead that was just issued still has 27c in the south east on Sat and 25C Sun & Mon, really can't see that now. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Guest

[Djdazzle]

Quite unusual for UKMO to blow up lows like that, and it’s very different from the 00z. See what ECM coughs up.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Quite unusual for UKMO to blow up lows like that, and it’s very different from the 00z. See what ECM coughs up.

Its a big change from this morning, the low is over 10mb deeper and 200-300miles further ESE. 

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, Friday looks like it could interesting...? And, what's the point of four hot, sultry days, if things don't end up going bang!

    

I'm still hoping for some flash bang fun Friday night followed by a return to settled conditions, at the very least for the SE, by Sat/Sun.

[Mike Poole]

Difference between GEM at T120 and GFS and UKMO is immense:

To T144 there is no barreling low:

Just a very unstable flow in the heat:

 

[Djdazzle]

I’d be loathe to trust GEM over UKMO, but that low looks a bit suspect in terms of how quickly it deepens.

[Guest]

GEM is so different from both GFS & UKMO with the depth and westward extent of the heat as much as I'd love to see it come off I think it needs to be ignored. Its showing 34C again for Friday again. 

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d be loathe to trust GEM over UKMO, but that low looks a bit suspect in terms of how quickly it deepens.

Guess we see if ECM levels the score at 2:2?  But not worth bothering much later than T144 with that uncertainty at the moment.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GEM is so different from both GFS & UKMO with the depth and westward extent of the heat as much as I'd love to see it come off I think it needs to be ignored. Its showing 34C again for Friday again. 

I’d be tempted to ignore the temps, but not the setup. GFS is closer to UKMO, but nowhere near as aggressive with the low.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d be loathe to trust GEM over UKMO, but that low looks a bit suspect in terms of how quickly it deepens.

I remember questioning the verification of the output earlier this month and very helpfully folks in the know posted the relevant stats in this thread. IIRC the GEM was second behind the ECM for verification so it's definitely worth taking seriously as a plausible option later next week.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d be tempted to ignore the temps, but not the setup. GFS is closer to UKMO, but nowhere near as aggressive with the low.

If we can't have a hot Saturday GFS is decent as should go bang!

[Methuselah]

As others have more than adequately dealt with next Friday, here's the 12Z at T+291: I would say it's not bad:

    

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

I remember questioning the verification of the output earlier this month and very helpfully folks in the know posted the relevant stats in this thread. IIRC the GEM was second behind the ECM for verification so it's definitely worth taking seriously as a plausible option later next week.

At the time in question T120, GEM is behind ECM and just behind UKMO and well ahead of GFS, interestingly the GFS parallel seems to be doing quite well:

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d be loathe to trust GEM over UKMO, but that low looks a bit suspect in terms of how quickly it deepens.

UKMO quite often throws a wobble on it's T144 chart, it seems to me that at times it steers a middle course amongst the models at D6. GEM and Icon extend the heat, lets see what ECM comes up with.

[Methuselah]

Based upon posts from @Tamara, @Singularity, @mushymanrob, and what the GFS is hinting at, here, long term, I think I agree that the outlook looks a tad squiffy (it's hardly a 2018 redux, we're looking at)...But, it never looks cold -- there's ample wiggle-room for hot spells -- so, what's the problem?

    

A chance of a decent summer (at least temperature-wise) that doesn't end-up with widespread water shortages? What's not to like?

[Guest]

Well GFS ensembles are slightly more optimistic than the Ops run, the Ops run is in a group of about a third of the ensembles that breakdown the warm spell through Friday, the remainder of the them keep it warm well into the weekend.

As for the GEM ensembles, they are absolutely having nothing to with UKMO's antics, every ensemble above 10C for at 00Z Saturday morning with 13 members still above 15C. 

BIG ECM tonight!

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well GFS ensembles are slightly more optimistic than the Ops run, the Ops run is in a group of about a third of the ensembles that breakdown the warm spell through Friday, the remainder of the them keep it warm well into the weekend.

As for the GEM ensembles, they are absolutely having nothing to with UKMO's antics, every ensemble above 10C for at 00Z Saturday morning with 13 members still above 15C. 

BIG ECM tonight!

Yes, and possibly bigger ECM ensembles....we will see...ECM rolling.

[Zak M]

@Mark wheeler

Your favourite model has gone bonkers... again... 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well, Friday looks like it could be interesting...? And, what's the point of four hot, sultry days, if things don't end up going bang!

    

I think the opposite Pete... What's the point of 4 hot days, followed by a breakdown that sometimes lasts 2 or 3 weeks. On a positive note, I suppose its better than the normal 3 fine days followed by a thunderstorm lark!

GFS mean looks OK, especially away from the far NW.. Exeter update is also OK, could be decent warm settled spells at times.. A little bit mixed but not to bad all the same.

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

@Mark wheeler

Your favourite model has gone bonkers... again... 

You’d think they’d have fixed the issue with the uppers by now - it’s been happening for years!

[mb018538]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

You’d think they’d have fixed the issue with the uppers by now - it’s been happening for years!

Don’t forget last year it was showing 42/43c in the hot spell!