Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Please note, however, that these are 'at the time' temps as opposed to the actual maximums - and for some reason, the 6 pm temps are typically 2-3 degrees lower than those, despite the fact I'd not expect more than a degree of loss from the peak at that hour. Here's a link to Friday's chart - though annoyingly, this site doesn't display the detail very well unless you look county-by-county.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20200626-1800z.html

There's a 27 to be found in eastern London. Not that we should be looking at such details when there's so much model divergence going on. One thing I've not seen mentioned yet is that UKMO handles the Atlantic trough very differently to both ECM and GFS, further muddying the waters. It was the same for the 00z runs. Each model has stood by its own take on matters. Reminds me of what went on for a while with respect to last weekend's wandering low!

And if memory serves me right no model got that  low right in the end . rainfall was so much more extensive and lasted longer . Such gripping Drama at the moment with the weather itself and the models to boot . Thanks for your informative post earlier along with Tamara’s too . Still learning but having fun at the same time . 

[Djdazzle]

Quite like being at this point: nailed on to be hot, with the only question being how hot and how long.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Quite like being at this point: nailed on to be hot, with the only question being how hot and now long.

Yes, I am with you, the broad pattern seems to be nailed so I'm less inclined to post about it, but the detail will be interesting when the models are close enough to pin it down, and then of course there is the question of what comes after....interesting times as summer starts to hot up...

[Daniel*]

31 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Quite like being at this point: nailed on to be hot, with the only question being how hot and how long.

Hot for the S/E of England but for a fair few nothing more than a touch warmer than average.

Wednesday alone looks the day with most widespread v warm temps. For example ECM 12z never gets any part of Scotland above 20°C next week...Atlantic air.

 

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by Daniel*

[ribster]

I like the way the models are trending this evening, get tomorrow out of the way and its all gravy baby!

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Quite like being at this point: nailed on to be hot, with the only question being how hot and how long.

Maybe for the regional threads? We're probably only going to see 20/22 degrees max.

[Scorcher]

15 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Maybe for the regional threads? We're probably only going to see 20/22 degrees max.

Nothing unusual there though- unfortunately Ireland often misses out in these sort of warm spells. I think given that most of England and Wales will experience hot weather next week it's very fair to be discussing it in here.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Scorcher

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Nothing unusual there though- unfortunately Ireland often misses out in these sort of warm spells. I think given that most of England and Wales will experience hot weather next week I think it's very fair to be discussing it in here.

Wouldn’t be much discussion on here if we always had to wait for Ireland to be hot!

[Don]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Wouldn’t be much discussion on here if we always had to wait for Ireland to be hot!

Only a matter of time.....

[Mark wheeler]

12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Maybe for the regional threads? We're probably only going to see 20/22 degrees max.

Yeah yeah 22 degrees Max , Just a selection of charts for you and the last Beeb forecast !! honestly I’m all for opinions but this is proper Cuckoo , This is almost a Uk event , granted there are exceptions but certainly for regional discussions.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[northwestsnow]

Day 5 and Europe looks a bake on 18z..

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Hey guys and good evening

and thanks to all for the great posts"again" and there is no wonder why with how the models are handling this next projected warm/hot spell next week that has been showing for the last few days in the NWP and now it is a question of how long it will last and nobody knows that just yet but post ten days which is an eternity away that the Atlantic tries to make an influence by the trough out W/NW then a re-surge/second bite from the Azores high could potentially influence the weather again later in the period but i am rambling too far ahead...but am i?

the latest from CPC/NOAA 500mb height anomaly's for the periods 6-10 and 8-14 days is has how you was from the last week believe it or not with high pressure centered over southern Scandinavia with surface flow from the south with upper flow from the SW,now the extended over the last few days was a trough sitting over or close to the UK but the latest extended shows the trough lifting out to the N/NW,this is an upgrade from previous in terms of keeping the fine warm and settled conditions for the UK especially the SE,the signal to me looks like a NW/SE split to me,how much further can we lift this trough out further to the north for more of the UK to benefit?

 

@Tamara,thanks again for another excellent post and i hope that question mark nearer to the COD on those AAM plots are way off the mark and the momentum is of a positive variety as we go forward into July

a last touch,i just watched Man utd v's Spurs and what a fantastic game that was and the respect was of high caliber,it's great to get football going again,bravo

and as Vera Lynn use to say...#we'll meet again#,we will...bless her and rest in peace

night gang.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

 

Surely the all time June record would be under threat if that came off, given you can normally add 2C to these charts?!  Of course, this is out in lala land......

Edited June 19, 2020 by Don

[sheikhy]

18z ?

[Scorcher]

Will be interesting to see if the ECM backs down in the morning...the GFS is sticking to its guns regarding a continuation of the heat into weekend this evening.

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

18z ?

Yep,liking this run,a warmer nose of heat extending out of northern Spain further north on this run

what gets me is the models do not handle hot spells correctly in my book and for some funny reason nearer the time we end up hotter than what the models showed a few days earlier,i have seen this numerous times with these projected scenarios

fantastic model watching at it's finest i would say

@Mods,can we have the guess the temps next week please,i am plumping for 35c somewhere in the SE.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Allseasons-si
spell correction

[Man With Beard]

Interestingly the ecm ensembles favoring a GFS type Scandi High for next weekend - would keep it hot though how hot would depend how far north the plume gets by next Thursday/Friday 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interestingly the ecm ensembles favoring a GFS type Scandi High for next weekend - would keep it hot though how hot would depend how far north the plume gets by next Thursday/Friday 

Liking this,more reinsurance and more info is a good thing,keep it up MWB

and not too dissimilar to the 6-10 cpc anomaly's i posted^ 

the standoff continues.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interestingly the ecm ensembles favoring a GFS type Scandi High for next weekend - would keep it hot though how hot would depend how far north the plume gets by next Thursday/Friday 

Awesome post, GFS has barked up the settled route a few times now With the full backing from its ensembles and been Wrong. Would be a big turnaround for it to be right!  

Edited June 19, 2020 by Guest

[summer blizzard]

Euro tonight differs from the 0z by building the heat quicker, 15C isotherm is around Tues-Thurs. After rebuilding a little on Friday the front then moves south such that away from London it’s all over by Saturday night. In essence we get a hot mid week and then a protracted  (and probably cloudy given the front stops in southern England for 48 hours) breakdown. Probably not thundery. In the Euro scenario Ireland and Scotland struggle.

Looking at the GFS it is clear that while there is broad timing agreement differences between the two models remain. Unlike the Euro and recent GFS runs, the 18z actually builds the warmth from Monday, like the Euro the core of the heat then builds quickly however the GFS actually removes the 15C isotherm by Thursday. It is Thurs-Sat that the differences between the two models develop in that the Euro essentially tries to drop down from the north west while the GFS is much more of a battleground scenario and as a result has a much more active front from the west pushing through.

The plus points to take are.. 

1) If we hit 30C it will probably be more likely to be early in the period (Tuesday or Wednesday) rather than late (though 25C+ for the duration).

2) Both the Euro and GFS bring the breakdown forwards to Saturday/Saturday night.

[snowray]

I'm liking the look of the 18z mean out at T180, I personally think that this settled spell of warm/hot weather will last longer than what some model output is showing.

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by snowray

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro tonight differs from the 0z by building the heat quicker, 15C isotherm is around Tues-Thurs. After rebuilding a little on Friday the front then moves south such that away from London it’s all over by Saturday night. In essence we get a hot mid week and then a protracted  (and probably cloudy given the front stops in southern England for 48 hours) breakdown. Probably not thundery. In the Euro scenario Ireland and Scotland struggle.

Looking at the GFS it is clear that while there is broad timing agreement differences between the two models remain. Unlike the Euro and recent GFS runs, the 18z actually builds the warmth from Monday, like the Euro the core of the heat then builds quickly however the GFS actually removes the 15C isotherm by Thursday. It is Thurs-Sat that the differences between the two models develop in that the Euro essentially tries to drop down from the north west while the GFS is much more of a battleground scenario and as a result has a much more active front from the west pushing through.

The plus points to take are.. 

1) If we hit 30C it will probably be more likely to be early in the period (Tuesday or Wednesday) rather than late (though 25C+ for the duration).

2) Both the Euro and GFS bring the breakdown forwards to Saturday/Saturday night.

I respect your post and you are quiet right in terms of what the models show but to forecast a breakdown eight days away is nae on impossible at predicting

[sheikhy]

19 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm liking the look of the 18z mean out at T180, I personally think that this settled spell of warm/hot weather will last longer than what some model output is showing.

 

Wow!!!what a mean chart!!!!extends the really hot air till saturday at least!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Models this morning;

UKMO

   

   

Suggests that central and eastern areas will remain very warm or hot until the end of next week, western areas more varied as fronts try to push eastwards.

GFS

   

   

Similar theme on the GFS, daytime maxima on Wednesday/Thursday and Friday get close to or exceed 30C in favoured spots on this run. The UKMO would be similar. Neither wants to bring in as swift a breakdown as the ECM so it will be interesting to see where that fits in later this morning.

      

Edited June 20, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Man With Beard]

T144 on this morning's charts: Disagreement on the specifics, agreement on it being very warm or hot