Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Mark wheeler]

And the last chart of the run way out in La la land is a thing of beauty and also the Heat is back  , From start to finish this run is exceptional .

Edited June 18, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, Downburst said:

I think this is exactly the thought I’ve had these week. Teleconnections aside, as I have serious concerns about the posts I see saying AAM is expected to be positive, so British Isles are going to be high pressure magnets. I think the  slack trough/upper low to the WNW and south that meandered is receding, leaves a vacuum that the jet temporarily aligns to, but the over riding pressure patter suggests a jet stream suppressed in the Atlantic, and with that north of here as it exists only where differentials exist, sea surface temps suggest this to me, with feedback from that reinforcement as continent heats up.. If the ground continues to dry out, over seasonal norms, well late July or early August could toy with breaking daily temps, but I’m thinking night time temps will hit the news mid summer given the sea surface temps, lower heights at the surface, given the lack of pressure gradient with a more northerly jet, a thundery humid second half of summer Is ver much on the cards and we just got a baby version of that this week

To be honest the last week has been very atypical of June and more like mid-late August onwards so a thundery second half of the summer would certainly not be unusual. A hot dry first half to August, followed by a second half like the first half of August 2004 would be awesome.

Anyway, to here and now, I'm liking the look of Monday onwards in particular, and just glad that tomorrow onwards sees a mighty shift of this stagnant wetness. Sunshine totals look good for quite a few days next week too which will help boost the suppressed sunshine totals so far this month.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

What is AAM anyone? If its 'rising' as some have pointed out then is this good or bad for english weather?? 

[Downburst]

13 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

What is AAM anyone? If its 'rising' as some have pointed out then is this good or bad for english weather?? 

You better google it. But please focus on the word “often” when reading. As in for example low or high base states often result in. Etc. Now in this neck of the woods it often rains, or it’s always within climate norms, I’m 100% confident the NW Atlantic is ammune to AAM. That’s why GP doesn’t have a statue

[Zak M]

Cracking 18z ensembles.

   

[northwestsnow]

Fabulous GFS UKMO runs this morning...

BOTH models have the Azores high cutting off the Atlantic at 144 ..

Edit: add GEM to the list too...

Edited June 19, 2020 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fabulous GFS UKMO runs this morning...

BOTH models have the Azores high cutting off the Atlantic at 144 ..

Edit: add GEM to the list too...

GEM is bonkers this morning!!

30c Tuesday

32c Wednesday 

33c Thursday 

33c Friday 

34c Saturday 

28c Sunday 

 

 

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GEM is bonkers this morning!!

30c Tuesday

32c Wednesday 

33c Thursday 

33c Friday 

34c Saturday 

28c Sunday 

 

 

That actually a slight downgrade on yesterday’s 12z !!

[Methuselah]

Morning all!

Another stonker from the GFS 00Z; maybe a tad less in the way of 'hairdryer' synoptics, but, see how quickly the Azores-Scandi ridge reasserts itself, making for a longer spell of generally very warm/hot weather:

    

    

    

    

    

And, there's plenty support from the GEFS ens -- except for the 'cold' snap (5C T850s!) the op shows around month's end, that is:

    

    

And, don't the NH profiles look spiffing?

    

    

Maybe a wee bit premature to be thinking in terms of 'locked-in heat', but...? And now for a hot day's weeding!

 

[Guest]

Well good to see no disasters overnight! All looking very positive, given the widespread and heavy rain and little chance for things to dry I wonder if max temps next week will slightly lower than what we’d maybe expect? Although of course we are at max insolation and SSTs are still well up!  

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Well good to see no disasters overnight! All looking very positive, given the widespread and heavy rain and little chance for things to dry I wonder if max temps next week will slightly lower than what we’d maybe expect? Although of course we are at max insolation and SSTs are still well up!  

I don’t think so - after the rain clears on Sunday morning you’ll have the rest of the day and Monday dry (windy too) which will dry the ground out, then the rest of the week will just be a bake. Moisture deficits are still there despite the recent rain.

[Captain Shortwave]

   

Just five days away on the ECM, probably getting close to around 90F/32C on Wednesday. It does look like a cold front will push east on Thursday with some kind of thundery disturbance moving north/north east out of France.

 

As an aside the Navgem has yet again predicted that Europe will be on fire.....

Edited June 19, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

Fax chart at 120 has the 564 line into the south

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well good to see no disasters overnight! All looking very positive, given the widespread and heavy rain and little chance for things to dry I wonder if max temps next week will slightly lower than what we’d maybe expect? Although of course we are at max insolation and SSTs are still well up!  

In the grand scheme of things the ground is still pretty dry underneath in most areas. Things will dry out very quickly after a couple of dry days. Pretty sure it won't affect the temperatures climbing.

[Captain Shortwave]

So into week 2 the ECM wants to bring back a generally westerly pattern but with the jet stream through the north of the country so central/southern areas still look mostly fine and still very warm in the south. The heat is never too far away either.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Daniel]

Latest ecm 2m temps. Wednesday and Thursday hot with a cool down for most by Friday 

[northwestsnow]

All in all very happy with the 00z runs...

As it stands, even as far north as manchester getting into the 80s on EC  next week ..

London has plenty of wriggle room even  if there is to be a late shift in the outputs so i would imagine the SE is pretty much nailed on to see a very warm week next week,TBH i'm not even sure any breakdown will even effect the south of England this side of July !!

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

Generally very pleasing output from the 0z models If it’s summery weather you  the Gfs 0z op for example is fantastic longer term into early July..fingers crossed!..all in all, for southern u k in particular there’s very good support for predominantly very warm or even hot weather during the next few weeks with plenty of love from the Azores high..oh and heights to the east too!!!

Edited June 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Mark wheeler]

As the Captain has already mentioned the Navgem is quite warm

[Guest]

ECM & UKMO seems in pretty good agreement out to T144, so a warm couple of days maybe getting to 30C in the south east before a cooler but potentially still mild airmass moves in through Friday and beyond. ECM surface forecast doesn't really match the 850's through the weekend can so despite uppers still in the warm category 10-15C the surface flow from Atlantic is much cooler. Also the ECM has zero trigger for a thundery breakdown as I suspect would be the same for UKMO. 

[Djdazzle]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM & UKMO seems in pretty good agreement out to T144, so a warm couple of days maybe getting to 30C in the south east before a cooler but potentially still mild airmass moves in through Friday and beyond. ECM surface forecast doesn't really match the 850's through the weekend can so despite uppers still in the warm category 10-15C the surface flow from Atlantic is much cooler. Also the ECM has zero trigger for a thundery breakdown as I suspect would be the same for UKMO. 

Don't think there's any maybe about 30C being breached. 32 / 33C looks more than possible.

[Man With Beard]

The ECM seems to be developing a wrap-around with the heat next weekend - it's a question of how far north the heat can get before it gets trapped around the UK. The ECM op kept this hot area for the SE only, but the ECM parallel shows what could be possible if that heat gets a little further north, probably approaching the mid 30s by Sunday:

      

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensemble mean upper air above 15C by next Wednesday, and for a wide area. That's not going to miss. 30C surface temps - or more - very likely.

[johnholmes]

Looking beyond the warmth/heat mid week next and the ECMWF 500 mb anomaly chart has gone 'awol' with regard to the pattern shown by the other two. NOAA remains as yesterday as does GFS by and large, but EC?, see below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

I have no idea if that is just a one off wobble or something more definite. I'll wait for tomorrow to give this area an update!

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensemble mean upper air above 15C by next Wednesday, and for a wide area. That's not going to miss. 30C surface temps - or more - very likely.

Looks better than yesterdays 12z?gfs and ukmo heat is on?