Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Let's see what the ECM says tonight. 

Pretty much as we are at T0:

I don't know why this chart is published!

Edited June 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pretty much as we are at T0:

I don't know why this chart is published!

So you can see the differences between it and GFS at the same time frame!

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs ens mean is pretty much flat-lining all the way along the +10 upper line,that's very good going,of cause it can change but just stating what it shows

i feel some...

coming on with the chance of somefor some of us

C'mon ECM,give us some more weather porn.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

So you can see the differences between it and GFS at the same time frame!

That would be interesting given what I said the other day about GFS data initialisation.  But there is no such chart for GFS.  Let's hope for a good ECM run...

[Methuselah]

So, the GFS 12Z op is not a warm outlier; not by any means!

    

    

And I do suspect the 2m temps are somewhat lower than reality?

[Zak M]

12z GFS p1 is literally my dream! It's showing a Spanish plume scenario and with a cut-off low stalling in the Atlantic near us it gives way to frequent thunderstorms!! Deep into FI though 

      

[mb018538]

Gale force easterly on Thursday!  

Edited June 7, 2020 by mb018538

[Mike Poole]

T96 ECM:

I am tracking alongside GEM as per my prediction earlier....

[Mike Poole]

T120 ECMv GEM

ECM more likely to keep the lows separate at this point.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Ice Day]

The three main models at 120 (UKMO, GFS, ECM) - it's going to be wet in the south make no mistake!!!

  

I'm also not going to lament the fact it's June not January!!! 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The three main models at 120 (UKMO, GFS, ECM) - it's going to be wet in the south make no mistake!!!

  

I'm also not going to lament the fact it's June not January!!! 

UKMO and ECM seems even wetter than GFS to be honest! 

[Mike Poole]

T144:

Ridging over or ridging under?  It's that scrotum solution from ECM again isn't it?

Edited June 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

 

ECM looks alright to me at 144. Surely storms are a-brewing here? If you don’t like humid weather then you might be out of luck.

[Zak M]

Looks better at 168

I sense some warmth coming...

Edited June 7, 2020 by Zak M

[samadamsuk]

20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gefs ens mean is pretty much flat-lining all the way along the +10 upper line,that's very good going,of cause it can change but just stating what it shows

i feel some...

coming on with the chance of somefor some of us

C'mon ECM,give us some more weather 

Finally an interesting scenario shaping up for us storm lovers ... it may end up not panning out with warmth and lightning, but like with most hobbies it's the anticipation and preparation that's often more enjoyable than the event! (Especially true with naked paintballing). 

We just need to see that low shunt down to the right position - cut off low are notoriously difficult for models as we all know, so fingers crossed we get heat pump and warm moist easterlies...

Samos

 

[mb018538]

168 - a jackpot chart from a few days previous - trough fully retreated back into the Atlantic.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM looks alright to me at 144. Surely storms are a-brewing here? If you don’t like humid weather then you might be out of luck.

great runs then, help kill coronavirus! as well as good weather

[Captain Shortwave]

That small injection of low heights towards the Azores on the ECM is sufficient to pull the main low to our south westwards without it being blown up to become the dominant influence. Tight margins but you can see the rewards by day 7 as high pressure takes control with a trough to our west. Tight margins though but the ECM avoids the big bowling ball low and by day 8 we now start to see the heat build to the south.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

T168:

Looks like the lows are on collision course, here's where I predicted ECM would draw the resulting trough west from now, we wait to see.

We need to get that BBC sport commentator who's being commentating on trivial things, to do one on the ECM!

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T168:

Looks like the lows are on collision course, here's where I predicted ECM would draw the resulting trough west from now, we wait to see.

 

wait and see is right , not cherry picking their favored charts and preferences which seems to have cropped in the last few pages and treated like gospel

[Allseasons-Si]

Yep,cracking ECM at 168,the heat from France/Spain should be with us at 192.

[Zak M]

I reckon thunderstorms will be possible on the 12z ECM @192

We receive some of the heat from France/Spain and along with the low nearby it should destabilise the air.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

T192:

My prediction looking good now!

[Allseasons-Si]

Not quiet there with the 850's but i will take it

ECM @192.

[northwestsnow]

Lovely EC this evening,can see why Exeter are now speaking warm or very warm...

Hoping for some big storms too..