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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

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LOL that storm is STILL going, it's halfway between Liverpool and the Isle of Man and it's still showing a hail core on the radar!

Also the Video is finally done!!!  Have some crappy handheld phone cam footage!

 

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33 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Yep and Waterford is getting its crystals shattered.

WWW.CRUISIN.ME

Waterford Harbour, Waterford, Ireland Webcam / Camera - Waterford (Dunmore East), Ireland. CRUISIN has the largest selection of live cruise ship & port webcams!

 

Waterford is where my family are. Lucky buggers

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I can see lightning strikes to my South again now.

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6 minutes ago, alijoy60 said:

I can see lightning strikes to my South again now.

Just got back from my vantage point and watched the first cell flash in the distance out to sea, then more brighter distant flashes came into view west of Macclesfield moving north west, you could be in for another show.

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Well what a fantastic day it has been for some of us and it's not very often that you see storms moving NW from a SE direction,no Kent clippers today ha! ha! and although i haven't seen any lightning i did here a few rumbles to my NE this afternoon with a fantastic pileus cloud and at that time i had just returned home from a short trip,i dashed in the house knowing a storm was brewing to my NE and grabbed the camera to take that pileus cloud shot before it disappeared but i should of filmed it,never mind,here it is again

DSC02870.thumb.JPG.8077530899cd10c09741010f468f2d6f.JPG

it had disappeared a few seconds after and it started to spread out into an anvil,that's how quick i rose

there has been some cracking footage on here today and i am pleased for you lot that got the storms,i was going to chase today but i had my doubt's because of the speed that they was traveling and the lightning was sporadic...at first,never mind there is tomorrow and the next few days to grab the opportunity .

 

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Great thunderstorm here earlier. Lightning show was really good.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNPPhdJr5oM

I really should've researched more into timelapsing with the camera I use but I will try and do better tomorrow, I am super new to this and I've never had a chance to experiment, I use a Panasonic FZ-200 bridge camera, if anyone knows any tips on photographing lightning, or recording lightning please give me

Edited by Joshy
New to this aswell lol
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Bugger all here today (Saturday), which is a bit of a pooper, but the amount of awesome pictures and videos from all of you in this thread, it's made up for that. ? Thank you all for sharing.

Thank you all for a wonderful day, NWC ('NetWeather Community'). ?

Round 2 tomorrow (Sunday), hopefully.

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Posted (edited)

Hi All,

Great to see some of you got some decent action today! Maybe had captured a funnel cloud which I posted on Twitter, very peculiar formation!

Onto tomorrow a NW/N Wales into the N Midlands look to be well position. Decent build-up of CAPE again, DLS looks to be stronger though so some decently-organised storms at times and hopefully should be a semi-active day again for lightning. Hope you had a good day all, unfortunately for me I drank myself into my bed by 8pm oops!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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That storm over Liverpool was surely supercellular. Insane structure.

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Manchester to Blackpool and out into the Irish Sea looks a great place to be today.

Im going to throw a wildcard in and say somewhere from Barnstaple to Ilfracombe might see something pretty decent too.

 

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Nothing here bar a brief thundery shower to the north east which came and went very rapidly. I guess a pulse shower would be the correct name.

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Caught some sheet lightning from the front cell of the Cheshire/Merseyside storm. Probably should edit out last 30 or so seconds

 

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NW / W / SW Ireland will no doubt light up like a Christmas tree today.

I have some slight concerns for England and Wales, as like yesterday profiles are very dry aloft and there is a slight warm nose at 650-700mb - both of which may affect how tall convection can grow, at least initially. No doubt cumulus will give several attempts to grow, but it could take a while before the heavy showers finally produce some lightning (as we saw over NW England yesterday evening). Main forcing will come from upslope flow over hills/mountains and low-level convergence along the W-E boundary from north Wales across to Norfolk. With any luck there should be an increase in lightning activity in these areas by late afternoon and into the evening hours. 25-35kts deep layer shear at lunchtime, but this does gradually reduce through the afternoon, so by the time convection gets going properly this might be nearer 20-25kts, still workable to aid in some organisation of cells.

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Gave up a little too early last night, as we had a shower about 8pm, and thought it was all over. Went for a walk and amazingly, 10 to 11pm, watching the cell over Northwich and Warrington as it went Livepool way and had the pleasure of the updraft lighting up like a lightbulb every minute or so.

Gutted, that yesterday the spring in my car broke, so can't drive, else would have either been after it or up somewhere high with a tripod, timelapsing it.

More today though!

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 14 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 15 Jun 2020

ISSUED 07:16 UTC Sun 14 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low will reside over the Celtic Sea throughout Sunday and Sunday night, the associated cold pool generating steep mid-level lapse rates, especially in western and southwestern areas with greatest proximity to the upper low.

... SCOTLAND ...

The east-southeasterly flow aloft across the North Sea and E / SE Scotland will maintain a pronounced Theta-E plume, advecting westwards across Scotland through the day. Several subtle impulses will run westwards atop this plume, generating episodes of elevated convection atop extensive low cloud and sea fog, and consequently bringing periodic risks of a few sporadic lightning strikes over the North Sea and adjacent portions of E / SE Scotland. However, the exact timing/placement of these features is uncertain, and it is likely most lightning activity will probably occur offshore and so for now we have refrained from introducing a SLGT (unless confidence improves).

By the afternoon, cloud breaks are expected to the lee of high ground (i.e. central and western Scotland), with diurnal heating then yielding 300-800 J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence and orographic forcing will play a key role in initiating convection, perhaps struggling to pass a slight warm nose at ~700mb initially, but potentially aided by a minor PV anomaly mid-late afternoon. As a result, a few isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms could develop and drift to the west for a couple of hours, before weakening by mid-evening. A low-end SLGT (25-30% chance) has been introduced to highlight the main area of interest.

... ENGLAND / WALES ...

On Sunday morning, a narrow tongue of marginal mid-level instability may be present over the East Midlands and East Anglia, lifting northwards with time. While a few elevated showers may be possible (potentially above areas of low cloud and sea fog), the risk of lightning is relatively low. Meanwhile, an area of showery rain will likely be stretching across the English Channel into Dorset, and this is expected to extend and migrate northwestwards into south Wales through the morning. Diurnal heating ahead and behind this feature will likely lead to convective overturning, with cloud and showery rain generally breaking up and providing the focus for scattered heavy showers to develop in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile some mixing of the boundary layer could lower dewpoints slightly through the day, potentially setting up a differential heating / quasi-dryline boundary (13-15C ahead and 10-12C behind) that will lift northwards across the Midlands and East Anglia. This boundary may also be reinforced by sea breeze convergence in the afternoon.

Either way, this boundary combined with sea breeze in other areas and orographic forcing in Wales / SW England will all contribute in generating scattered heavy showers during the afternoon and evening hours, aided also by a shortwave. Some concerns exist over the extent of cloud cover associated with earlier showery rain, which may have some impact on reducing instability due to subdued surface temperatures, and even if deep convection does occur there are also concerns about a slight warm nose at 700mb and very dry mid/upper levels which may restrict how tall such convective cloud may be able to grow. Either way, the environment could potentially yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE with 30-35kts bulk shear, perhaps aiding in cell organisation with the strongest cells producing hail up to 2cm in diameter. Low-level convergence boundaries and local topography will aid in generating some low-level vorticity, and this may be ingested to perhaps produce an isolated tornado - most likely close to the coast of west Wales. Some sporadic lightning is certainly possible, most likely in west and north Wales into the north Midlands (35% chance). An isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm may also be possible over Cumbria. Activity will slowly weaken through the mid-late evening.

During the early hours of Monday, an emerging shortwave drifting from the Channel Islands towards the south coast may bring the risk of some elevated showers, which could perhaps produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...

Some pockets of elevated convection may be ongoing first thing on Sunday morning, particularly across central and/or southern Ireland, but probably with a weakening trend as mid-level instability gradually reduces. However, it is possible this may become rooted within the boundary layer across parts of Munster by late morning/midday, as diurnal heating increases surface-based CAPE. Either way, assuming early cloud cover breaks sufficiently to allow strong surface heating through the day, some 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE is expected to build. Highest dewpoints will be located in W and NW Ireland, and here the greatest instability is expected. A combination of sea breeze convergence inland from the west coasts, and orographic forcing, will provide the primary trigger for deep convection to develop but also likely aided by a substanial shortwave that will drift eastwards across Ireland during the second half of the afternoon into early evening. 

The net result is numerous thunderstorms are expected to erupt, perhaps initially in Munster late morning as previously mentioned, but more widely across SW / W / NW Ireland through the afternoon. General storm motion will be to the W or SW, which is likely to lead to elements of backbuilding as additional cells develop along the same sea breeze boundaries / orographic features and train over similar areas. The magnitude of CAPE, forcing and steep mid-level lapse rates, albeit with modest shear (15-25kts) suggests lightning could be quite frequent at times (40-45% chance), and since some elements of backbuilding / training will likely occur, it could also persist for some length of time in places. As a result we may consider upgrading to MDT if confidence increases in areas that are most prone. While hail up to 1.5cm in diameter may be possible, the greatest threat is from surface water flooding given PWAT ~25mm, with potential event totals of 30-50mm possible locally.

While thunderstorms will generally weaken during the evening hours and drift offshore, remnant showers from Wales may drift across the Irish Sea into eastern Ireland overnight and as such a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible with this activity, even well into the early hours.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-14

 

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Stormy looking at 7am this morning in South Cheshire and a few drops of rain but nothing more, and sun has now come out and warmth building up again like yesterday..

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From today all the way until Friday looks packed with potential for my part of the woods - particularly liking the heights and precips for Monday and Tuesday. Interesting times! May start with some downpours today - atmosphere seems primed for initiation 

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I can say I was definitely treated yesterday! Although I didn't get a direct hit of an intense storm I had numerous rumbles of thunder from a cell which rapidly developed to my W and NW. It was quite reminiscent of a supercell in structure!

 

Screenshot 2020-06-14 at 09.31.44.png

ee1a166d-e597-4334-811b-3d9876b1c135.jpeg

2934fbcf-be52-4d77-8714-f95af3c0fd4c.jpeg

766d6557-38b3-491f-b4cc-f39435b925e2.jpeg

21702ec5-de13-4eb2-b32a-6f4ed6e998e2.jpeg

c73febe2-ff67-442a-8abf-3f0c5ada9e7e.jpeg

10ed942c-2506-4780-ab1c-6ff0dc2557ee.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

I can say I was definitely treated yesterday! Although I didn't get a direct hit of an intense storm I had numerous rumbles of thunder from a cell which rapidly developed to my W and NW. It was quite reminiscent of a supercell in structure!

 

Screenshot 2020-06-14 at 09.31.44.png

ee1a166d-e597-4334-811b-3d9876b1c135.jpeg

2934fbcf-be52-4d77-8714-f95af3c0fd4c.jpeg

766d6557-38b3-491f-b4cc-f39435b925e2.jpeg

21702ec5-de13-4eb2-b32a-6f4ed6e998e2.jpeg

c73febe2-ff67-442a-8abf-3f0c5ada9e7e.jpeg

10ed942c-2506-4780-ab1c-6ff0dc2557ee.jpeg

Yes, weak striations in that final pic for sure. 

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