Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[Chris Lea-Alex]

20 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I know European and everything but that GermanY storm is insane

I guess we'll be competing against that cacodemon for energy or something. 

[Mike Poole]

I can't believe it is mid June and this is my first foray into the storms thread!  A very dry spring indeed.  

Must be be a good chance of seeing something today though, GFS has widespread CAPE later this afternoon in the south.

[PurpleLED]

lovely skies out though not as clear as i'd have hoped with some cumulus and cirrus about. I think my best bet today will be what i assume would be elevated storms around 7-8pm ish, the arome 00z looked quite promising but the 03z is def a bit of a downgrade it seems but still has something going close to me, couple other models also showed a bit of promise so i don't think my odds are too terrible but not great either.

[ChannelThunder]

So, AROME brings in a band of possible storms a good few hours ahead of UKV/Met Office graphics. It looks far more intense on the former, but the timing of the latter is better and might even allow for some night time lightning photography...

Guess it's radar watching for the rest of today!

 

[Sparkiee storm]

After thick fog last night, its still pretty dull here, but there has been some brighter spells, even hints of some sun, so im hopeful it will break up properly soon as areas to the East are pretty clear. Need to get that heating going, to make the atmosphere ripe, then will just need a CZ. More of a chance today for these parts . Good luck to all. 

[Paul Sherman]

Thing is Harry you just know when its a decent feel for storms and I have not felt that once yet this Spring early Summer APR/MAY/JUNE - The air feels like Mid April. I dont doubt it will heat up but no mugginess really worries me although it sounds like if you have not got this cool breeze from the SE and further Inland some posters have said it feels humid. East Midlands has a 60f dewpoint where Manston is only at 50f and thats all you need to know really. I think Arome is out of line with most other models and will reign it in on the 06z and 12z runs more in line with others. UKV not really interested in anything apart from West of London up through Oxfordshire now so would expect the zone of Initiation over London and Surrey and anywhere North and West from there could catch an evening Thunderstorm today.

Best of Luck to everyone and somebody will luck out

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thing is Harry you just know when its a decent feel for storms and I have not felt that once yet this Spring early Summer APR/MAY/JUNE - The air feels like Mid April. I dont doubt it will heat up but no mugginess really worries me although it sounds like if you have not got this cool breeze from the SE and further Inland some posters have said it feels humid. East Midlands has a 60f dewpoint where Manston is only at 50f and thats all you need to know really. I think Arome is out of line with most other models and will reign it in on the 06z and 12z runs more in line with others. UKV not really interested in anything apart from West of London up through Oxfordshire now so would expect the zone of Initiation over London and Surrey and anywhere North and West from there could catch an evening Thunderstorm today.

Best of Luck to everyone and somebody will luck out

The skies aren't particularly encouraging either, all I'm seeing so far today is low, messy, fast-moving cumulus and some cirrus above it. 

If humidity increases and some more unstable skies move in, things might look and feel a little more promising.

[Sparkiee storm]

Very humid here now the sun has broke through, and revealing convective towers already 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, Lance M said:

The skies aren't particularly encouraging either, all I'm seeing so far today is low, messy, fast-moving cumulus and some cirrus above it. 

If humidity increases and some more unstable skies move in, things might look and feel a little more promising.

I think that’s the likely evolution. Clouds are all wispy at the moment doesn’t look at all stormy

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Below is what is going on in the back garden - or the sky above it to be precise.  Seems alright for heating but feels fresh and breezy with forecasted highs of 20°.  The perfect summer day in fact! Wake me up in July

[Paul Sherman]

11 minutes ago, Lance M said:

The skies aren't particularly encouraging either, all I'm seeing so far today is low, messy, fast-moving cumulus and some cirrus above it. 

If humidity increases and some more unstable skies move in, things might look and feel a little more promising.

Agree Lance

Lots of time left yet though for the atmosphere to destabilise but I think Southerlies further West over London coming up against Easterlies down the Thames Estuary will be the Initiation Zone if any CZ can form

[PurpleLED]

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

well the met office is expecting something

[Dale Hay]

Met Office have just the one weather warning for today.

[Ryukai]

Already getting into the 20C here, dewpoints hovering around 14/15C and humidity's currently fluctuation between 75% and 80% (though showing a steady minimum increase).  

Clouds already beginning to bubble up, but with how much they are leaning it looks rather breezy up there

[Allseasons-Si]

I am thinking of parking myself on Wood head pass a little later as this setup reminds me of a couple of years ago at the beginning of July(could of been 2016,not sure),when i parked on Wood head pass,it was a sudden dash to get there as the storm came out of nowhere not realizing that i didn't charge my camera up and it failed the moment i started recording

this time i am fully prepared.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

15 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Agree Lance

Lots of time left yet though for the atmosphere to destabilise but I think Southerlies further West over London coming up against Easterlies down the Thames Estuary will be the Initiation Zone if any CZ can form

Any chance in my area, do you think?

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Any chance in my area, do you think?

West is Best today 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

West is Best today 

Cheers.  Tomorrow more likely?

[PurpleLED]

starting to get some Cumulus mediocris now

[Harry]

35 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thing is Harry you just know when its a decent feel for storms and I have not felt that once yet this Spring early Summer APR/MAY/JUNE - The air feels like Mid April. I dont doubt it will heat up but no mugginess really worries me although it sounds like if you have not got this cool breeze from the SE and further Inland some posters have said it feels humid. East Midlands has a 60f dewpoint where Manston is only at 50f and thats all you need to know really. I think Arome is out of line with most other models and will reign it in on the 06z and 12z runs more in line with others. UKV not really interested in anything apart from West of London up through Oxfordshire now so would expect the zone of Initiation over London and Surrey and anywhere North and West from there could catch an evening Thunderstorm today.

Best of Luck to everyone and somebody will luck out

Can’t disagree with any of that really and the facts speak for themselves re dew points. Although I would say we have had in the past great storms after preceding conditions suggesting nothing could be further from the case, and actually here I would say there is a thundery air to the day albeit with the benefit of less breeze. Nothing vaguely interesting in the mid levels (yet) but we do have some chunky little cumulus developing as the day warms, rolling over on themselves in the SE breeze.

I’m keeping hopeful for now 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

48 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thing is Harry you just know when its a decent feel for storms and I have not felt that once yet this Spring early Summer APR/MAY/JUNE - The air feels like Mid April. I dont doubt it will heat up but no mugginess really worries me although it sounds like if you have not got this cool breeze from the SE and further Inland some posters have said it feels humid. East Midlands has a 60f dewpoint where Manston is only at 50f and thats all you need to know really. I think Arome is out of line with most other models and will reign it in on the 06z and 12z runs more in line with others. UKV not really interested in anything apart from West of London up through Oxfordshire now so would expect the zone of Initiation over London and Surrey and anywhere North and West from there could catch an evening Thunderstorm today.

Best of Luck to everyone and somebody will luck out

But Paul, you’re used to Texas and Oklahoma juice! That’s enough to make anywhere feel mediocre in comparison I bet! 

[Liam Ellis]

Incredibly warm and humid here in north Snowdonia. Clouds bubbling up to the south. 

[Dangerous55019]

Just been out with the dog for his mid morning walkies... It’s very muggy out, and I’ve just clocked this tower going up directly to my south. 

As always, good luck to everyone with this today. 

[Mark Evans]

Good morning peeps I’m a newbie on here my favourite weather is thunderstorms my location is Windsor about 4 miles west of Heathrow I will update any storms that get going fingers crossed for later currently 19c deep blue sky’s and cirrus nice and humid

[Paul Sherman]

6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

But Paul, you’re used to Texas and Oklahoma juice! That’s enough to make anywhere feel mediocre in comparison I bet! 

Lol yh

Its certainly been an eye opener this year - Am used to 84/75 for most of May and June so guess I am out of practise lol

You tempted to scoot across to the West Midlands today ? Am pretty certain Supacell will be out chasing today