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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK

    Looks like gfs wants a repeat of this weekend in a weeks time!

    6D1415D9-345C-4D76-9004-E8CE8C7A5ABB.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    That area in SE France is certainly getting more active. Some new Sferics just started in Belgique, wonder if they will pep up further and head this way. Could just be the start. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    Just a few spots of rain, main area missing me.

    Edited by Dami
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Just had a pretty heavy downpour here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    15 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    I am going to cancel my plans to chase during the early hours of the morning as recent runs have shifted the main risk too far north and east. Indeed it may be that i would need a boat to see the best of it.

    However, feeling quite optimistic about the opportunity tomorrow. Across the likes of East Wales, Welsh Borders, West Midlands and NW England there is all the makings of an interesting afternoon. Should the sun not be hidden by clouds (forecast suggests clouds will break) then temperatures into the low 20s heating up a humid, continental airmass could generate up to 1000j/kg of CAPE. This, coupled with some deep layer shear could lead to some marginally severe storms through the afternoon and evening. In my view the best set up so far this year for a proper storm.

    Following this there are, as mentioned above, indications of further storms being  imported into C-S and SE England overnight. These would then push NWwards into Sunday. Sunday then another day with potential, although probably not to the same extent as Saturday.

    Hi Supacell,

    Am considering chasing tomorrow also, do you have any particularly good spots across W Midlands into Wales with good access routes etc. I'm thinking maybe positioning around the Shropshire AONB area? Maybe further north towards Shrewsbury. What's your thinking?

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Bishops Castle, Shropshire
  • Location: Bishops Castle, Shropshire
    2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Hi Supacell,

    Am considering chasing tomorrow also, do you have any particularly good spots across W Midlands into Wales with good access routes etc. I'm thinking maybe positioning around the Shropshire AONB area? Maybe further north towards Shrewsbury. What's your thinking?

    I live in the Shropshire AONB, so it's best if I stay put? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Hi Supacell,

    Am considering chasing tomorrow also, do you have any particularly good spots across W Midlands into Wales with good access routes etc. I'm thinking maybe positioning around the Shropshire AONB area? Maybe further north towards Shrewsbury. What's your thinking?

    I love living on the south coast however attempting to chase anything surface is just not worth it given the real juicy stuff is usually midlands northwards. Its Probably a 300-500mile round and upwards of £100 of fuel from the south coast! 

    Would only consider chasing the most exceptional and high end UK outlooks.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    2 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

    I live in the Shropshire AONB, so it's best if I stay put? ?

    I'm thinking the highest risk maybe further north, but I'm considering it as a starting point in case things kick off further south!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury
    2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Hi Supacell,

    Am considering chasing tomorrow also, do you have any particularly good spots across W Midlands into Wales with good access routes etc. I'm thinking maybe positioning around the Shropshire AONB area? Maybe further north towards Shrewsbury. What's your thinking?

    If you end up coming this way, the good news is the roads are still super quiet at the moment so chasing in Shropshire east or west on A5 or North and South on A49 should be less stress than usual. That said the one place travel is a mare at the weekend is Church Stretton and the roads through the Longmynd as its packed with people getting out of town for a walk.

     

    If your looking to see things approach from the south, then I can recommend Bayston Hill as a good place to pull up and watch from. 

    I could head out tomorrow also as things look exciting. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    Just now, SalopWatcher said:

    If you end up coming this way, the good news is the roads are still super quiet at the moment so chasing in Shropshire east or west on A5 or North and South on A49 should be less stress than usual. That said the one place travel is a mare at the weekend is Church Stretton and the roads through the Longmynd as its packed with people getting out of town for a walk.

     

    If your looking to see things approach from the south, then I can recommend Bayston Hill as a good place to pull up and watch from. 

    I could head out tomorrow also as things look exciting. 

     

    Brilliant stuff! Thank you ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    20 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    I am going to cancel my plans to chase during the early hours of the morning as recent runs have shifted the main risk too far north and east. Indeed it may be that i would need a boat to see the best of it.

    However, feeling quite optimistic about the opportunity tomorrow. Across the likes of East Wales, Welsh Borders, West Midlands and NW England there is all the makings of an interesting afternoon. Should the sun not be hidden by clouds (forecast suggests clouds will break) then temperatures into the low 20s heating up a humid, continental airmass could generate up to 1000j/kg of CAPE. This, coupled with some deep layer shear could lead to some marginally severe storms through the afternoon and evening. In my view the best set up so far this year for a proper storm.

    Following this there are, as mentioned above, indications of further storms being  imported into C-S and SE England overnight. These would then push NWwards into Sunday. Sunday then another day with potential, although probably not to the same extent as Saturday.

    Can’t believe you won’t even buy a boat ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    41 minutes ago, Dami said:

    Gone quite dark. Funny, i think to myself whist sitting on the loo how much everything sounds like thunder when you really would like a storm.

    Hot curry last night was it? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    EDW Warning just issued for the Cone

    Extreme Drizzle Warning in place until 3pm GMT

    Absolutely freezing again after a briefly mild morning with a few peeks of the sun

    Currently 14c with Moderate Drizzle - Some Plume this lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)

    Just a heavy downpour here. Had too much cloud cover this morning and the ground just isn’t warm enough to get any proper convection going.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    Well the beeb seem more enthusiastic on the potential than usual...

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
    18 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Brilliant stuff! Thank you ?

    Just remember that Wales still has the travel lockdown in place and there are police hanging around the border roads turning people back.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    Turning extremely dark to my SE now, hopefully the line of dynamic rainfall/showers ahead intensify further!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Let me tell you something conditions here in leicester are far far away from humid and warm!!currently cool with plenty of low cloud and a breeze!!you would not think any storms were forecast anywhere today or tomorrow!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Dafuq are the BBC playing at 

    Have replied to their tweet asking them for some Mesoscale Discussions for tomorrow ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Let me tell you something conditions here in leicester are far far away from humid and warm!!currently cool with plenty of low cloud and a breeze!!you would not think any storms were forecast anywhere today or tomorrow!!!

    Been outside now and it feels pretty humid to me. Not particularly stormy looking mind you, as there’s thick cloud and light drizzle. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    17 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    OH no two words that will send @Paul Sherman exploding and rushing out side to grab a cigarette saying F### Me it's looking good....meh:whistling:

     

    Edited by Dorsetbred
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