Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
    1 minute ago, Ryukai said:

    Wouldn't surprise me if the current record breaking weather is being helped along by the lack of contrails, normally there's at least half a dozen in the sky (even on 'clear' sunny days) and normally more, barely see one a day now.  All that extra sunlight/heat reaching the surface instead of being reflected back into space has got to be having some sort of effect.

    Possibly but we seem to get locked into patterns more often, eg soaking Winter v bone dry Spring and quite a few articles put this down to a weakening jet stream which in turn is caused by less of a temperature contrast due to a warming Arctic. I'm certainly no expert but it sounds plausible. I miss the variety in our weather at the moment that's for sure.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    A quick recap of my day, without getting too waffly. It has been an absolute classic and my favourite/most successful chase so far. - started fairly benign as I failed to get a good handle on the

    100% Bonafide Supercell no doubting that whatsoever 35knts of flow, Moved right of the deviant steering flow Killed off anything that came near it Like most Supercells massive uptick in

    Nice little thunderstorm finally drought is over!  London webcams: I grabbed this!!! 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Interesting sky this evening, even though I most likely won't get anything

    DSC00814.JPG

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    Indeed

    20200602_193834.jpg

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    No sign of anything here yet, as expected as it's too early, just the clear sky we've become used to lately. Will look very different tomorrow

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    So here is CW's take on tomorrow then.

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 03 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 04 Jun 2020

    ISSUED 20:20 UTC Tue 02 Jun 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper trough will continue to extend southwards across western Europe during Wednesday, its axis over the British Isles. The associated cooling and moistening of the mid-levels will in part aid in showery outbreaks of rain developing fairly widely across England and Wales during the day. This will be accompanied by extensive medium- and low-level cloud. Pockets of weak elevated convection may exist, embedded within areas of showery rain, and could produce the odd isolated lightning strike. However, the main focus will be linked to any sufficient cloud breaks that can develop to aid in surface heating across S / SW England and S Wales and yield 200-500 J/kg CAPE. Given the slack surface pattern, areas of low-level convergence may develop and this will provide the primary forced ascent to generate deep convection. 

    Big concerns exist over saturated profiles and extensive cloud cover. Shear is also likely to be fairly weak given the location within the trough axis. Hence, even if deep convection does indeed develop, showers may struggle to maintain themselves for any length of time with pulse-type showers likely (although outflow may aid additional development nearby). This, combined with hints of a slight warm nose in the 500-600mb layer may also serve to restrict the depth of convection too. All in all, this does not bode well for much in the way of lightning activity, unless sufficient sunshine can significantly lift surface temperatures and be able to force parcels higher than the 500-600mb layer. Current thinking is a few scattered heavy, slow-moving showers may develop during the day - which poses a risk of localised surface water flooding - but the risk of lightning is rather limited. Given the low cloud bases and low-level convergence present, a few funnel clouds may be possible.

     

    Model guidance also varies in location of the most favoured areas for heavy showers to break out too. As a general rule, a zone from S/SE Wales and across southern England / southern parts of the Midlands is at risk, perhaps moreso close to coasts where low-level convergence will be maximised, but pinpointing specific areas where heavy showers are most likely, and then on top the aforementioned concerns over lightning potential, negates the need for a SLGT unless confidence in either aspect increases.

    socialmedialogo.png
    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I would say along the the M4 into the SE through tomorrow afternoon for some heavy showers to break out with some sporadic lightning.

    og-image.png
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...
    MO_Master_W.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
    26 minutes ago, matt111 said:

    No sign of anything here yet, as expected as it's too early, just the clear sky we've become used to lately. Will look very different tomorrow

    Personally, I have my fingers crossed that the blob of rain in the Irish Sea (that has just passed over the Isle of Man) keeps trundling onwards.  The direction it's traveling means it'll come straight down the Cheshire gap and hit us here head on.  Gardens looking very 'wilty' now, could do with a good downpour.

    Edited by Ryukai
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
    11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I would say along the the M4 into the SE through tomorrow afternoon for some heavy showers to break out with some sporadic lightning.

    og-image.png
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...
    MO_Master_W.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

     

    The UKV keeps a lot of places in that area wet for a lot of the day. Could be very wet in places. 

    temp.gif

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
    7 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

    Personally, I have my fingers crossed that the blob of rain in the Irish Sea (that has just passed over the Isle of Man) keeps trundling onwards.  The direction it's traveling means it'll come straight down the Cheshire gap and hit us here head on.  Gardens looking very 'wilty' now, could do with a good downpour.

    Looks hopeful. There's hardly any grass left here but look like it'll get a nice water tomorrow. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Heavy showers are expected to develop in SW England during Wednesday afternoon. If there is any cloud breaks in the SW, the sun will get to work and will yield 200-600j/kg CAPE. This will support the development of heavy showers, capable of producing the odd lightning strike. Due to a strong cap in place and not a lot of shear, if any thunderstorms do develop, they might not produce a lot of lightning and will be more pulse type.

    imageedit_7_4593316498.gif

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Heavy showers are expected to develop in SW England during Wednesday afternoon. If there is any cloud breaks in the SW, the sun will get to work and will yield 200-600j/kg CAPE. This will support the development of heavy showers, capable of producing the odd lightning strike. Due to a strong cap in place and not a lot of shear, if any thunderstorms do develop, they might not produce a lot of lightning and will be more pulse type.

    imageedit_7_4593316498.gif

    Going to be fun in work then tomorrow lol. Hope lightning doesnt strike us when i'm fuelling our ribs up, it will end up lashing down whilst i'm in the marina getting 200+ ltrs of petrol

    Edited by viking_smb
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
    58 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

    Personally, I have my fingers crossed that the blob of rain in the Irish Sea (that has just passed over the Isle of Man) keeps trundling onwards.  The direction it's traveling means it'll come straight down the Cheshire gap and hit us here head on.  Gardens looking very 'wilty' now, could do with a good downpour.

    Precipitation was actually fairly heavy as it passed over. Didn’t take long to give things a good soaking.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Heat
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
    1 hour ago, matt111 said:

    The UKV keeps a lot of places in that area wet for a lot of the day. Could be very wet in places. 

    temp.gif

    But not one spot of rain for the far southeast

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    8 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

    But not one spot of rain for the far southeast

    No soaking here until Thursday morning on UKV. Begging for this rain at the mo!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
    1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

    Good to see the sun poking out through the cloud here!

    Same here, which I wasn’t expecting. Let’s see how today pans out, but some added heat from the sun won’t hurt at all.

    Edit - just popped out to post a letter and the sky resembles the environment pre-post elevated storms - lots of altostratus, asperatus type clouds around. Quite picturesque 

    A35663CD-37B7-4BBE-AE92-71949DEE2178.jpeg

    Edited by Harry
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

    A spot of light rain in Egham. Doesn’t feel particularly stormy, but I have a feeling if anything was to happen today it would happen somewhere near here - probably a heavy and weakly electrified shower early afternoon.

    Not expecting any significant stormy weather though

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire

    The radar returns aren't even reaching the ground here so far. Cloud base does look high.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Sunny and Warm in Leigh On Sea with high level cirrus 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    7 minutes ago, bradleywx said:

    image.thumb.gif.3a6c48d0ca81357c7af8da880dec82bd.gifLol you guys enjoy today’s show I’ll just be waiting for this to come off 

    Yep that’s a proper plume event we could be in for next Friday. It’s so far away... very likely it won’t come off given our luck ?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
    26 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    The radar returns aren't even reaching the ground here so far. Cloud base does look high.

    Same here! 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Not personally optimistic about the lightning potential today besides perhaps a few sporadic flashes. Doesn't look like any real thunderstorm cells will develop, there's too much cloud around

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    Diddly squat today. Onto the next event!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    Looking at the radar very little of the rain currently falling anywhere can be described as heavy. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...