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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

M/o graphics actually show some decent rain in this area throughout tomorrow. I will settle for that rather than any storms right now to give everything a water and clean some of this damn pollen from the air!

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

Nice watering for us all on UKV with the potential for a rumble of thunder under places where precip intensifies. 

ukvgif.gif

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Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted

I'll be happy to take some decent rainfall tbh. Much as I'm loving suntan furlough,  the garden isn't. Haven't seen a storm for nearly 2 years now, and think I'll be waiting a little longer

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
20 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Nice watering for us all on UKV with the potential for a rumble of thunder under places where precip intensifies. 

ukvgif.gif

Really hope that's accurate, it shows a sustained watering over this area even into the evening.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Next Wednesday looking good with a low sweeping some heavy rain up from mainland France into the SE. Nothing thundery appearing at moment, probably due to little heating beforehand - but something to watch

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Next Wednesday looking good with a low sweeping some heavy rain up from mainland France into the SE. Nothing thundery appearing at moment, probably due to little heating beforehand - but something to watch

We've definitely earned ourselves a biscay low churning up multiple rounds of downpours and thunderstorm potential. I'm highly skeptical. It looks good on the GFS 6z, but GFS has a recent history of placing lows down to the SW, which rarely come off in reality. 

Still, fingers crossed. 

Edited by Lance M
Typo
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
2 hours ago, Lance M said:

We've definitely earned ourselves a biscay low churning up multiple rounds of downpours and thunderstorm potential. I'm highly skeptical. It looks good on the GFS 6z, but GFS has a recent history of placing lows down to the SW, which rarely come off in reality. 

Still, fingers crossed. 

It is pleasing however (and ought not to be overlooked) that both GFS and ECM evolve broadly similar synoptic patterns for the middle of next week - low pressure over or around the UK sinking SW towards the Bay of Biscay, developing a broadly southerly flow and chucking forth some fairly moist air... one to keep an eye on I think!

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
48 minutes ago, Harry said:

It is pleasing however (and ought not to be overlooked) that both GFS and ECM evolve broadly similar synoptic patterns for the middle of next week - low pressure over or around the UK sinking SW towards the Bay of Biscay, developing a broadly southerly flow and chucking forth some fairly moist air... one to keep an eye on I think!

Good point, I hadn't spotted that. Cross-model agreement is always encouraging!

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

This just popped out of nowhere in N Ireland

nireland.png

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted
24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This just popped out of nowhere in N Ireland

nireland.png

But can you see it 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
10 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

But can you see it 

Yeah, it looks almost like... the size of the UK... 

imageedit_69_7374688138.gif

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

@Zak M

Is that a stepped leader on the right hand side?

Haha I didn't even notice that at first - I thought it was bird poop but hey it can be a step leader 

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yeah, it looks almost like... the size of the UK... 

imageedit_69_7374688138.gif

Ah that’s what they look like. It’s been so long I’d forgotten. 

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
29 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Your snowman is melting

Forgot what they looked like too

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Huntforsnow Community Regular

Huntforsnow

Posted
  • Location: Kilwinning, North Ayrshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kilwinning, North Ayrshire
Posted

This looking stormy? Motherwell Scotland 

20200602_180711.jpg

20200602_180721.jpg

20200602_181008.jpg

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
13 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Forgot what they looked like too

I don’t even know what that word is - just looked nice when written down.
 

What’s this thread all about, by the way?

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I don’t even know what that word is - just looked nice when written down.
 

What’s this thread all about, by the way?

Something that goes flash bang flash bang etc I think. 

Couldn’t resist. :crazy:

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Something that goes flash bang flash bang etc I think. 

Couldn’t resist. :crazy:

It was worth it

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

Goodness me this must be the least stormy period in my 35 years of life.

2 elevated storms since April 2018 and 2 claps of thunder/flashes from surface based showers in the space of 25 months. 
Surface based convection genuinely doesn’t happen anymore - and now to end this hot spell, it looks like I get dynamic frontal rainfall. What has happened?

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Let’s hope that is correct Zak! 

I think any thunderstorms or torrential downpours will be most likely in the North and East - can’t see anything exciting happening this far West IMBY. 

45E6E263-B511-47A8-96A0-B1066CD8E64B.thumb.png.3270449a8d65afe744a93159b38f9784.png757DE3CD-92F5-4B1C-83F4-0AE1DE4CD4B3.thumb.png.0b4f1cbe9743f6957e48f4b2dbee0be5.png5353EA36-2D34-4B68-B311-EF4A867BFBD2.thumb.png.fdb181db30ce89c201ffb115b764c59f.png
 

F641BE95-8214-49C9-87EB-4FA3B6EF486B.thumb.png.044667b36bcdd6be48e16d566df13db8.png352A64BF-8589-4F30-BDF9-202C01394FE9.thumb.png.c35d76cd300a2b7749503cedac6b4dba.pngF95BC446-4728-4FBF-AA31-CF0DD9AA7582.thumb.png.6e7d7e4953358264de39b715434f5a14.png

Pretty underwhelming stuff from Convective Weather below. (See other post)

What do you think @Kirkcaldy Weather ?

Just to summarise...no thunder or lightning anywhere in Scotland today - was only low risk though.

Meanwhile in most of Europe throughout the day. (Image as at 18:45)

50B50FCA-001D-4662-99B9-5150EEC65B84.thumb.png.b27c3aa94576f886f2c965afcdce8b9e.png

Our time in the UK and Ireland will come again soon - hopefully! 

All the best everyone. ⚡

Edited by Mr Frost
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James1979 Community Regular

James1979

Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Goodness me this must be the least stormy period in my 35 years of life.

2 elevated storms since April 2018 and 2 claps of thunder/flashes from surface based showers in the space of 25 months. 
Surface based convection genuinely doesn’t happen anymore - and now to end this hot spell, it looks like I get dynamic frontal rainfall. What has happened?

Climate change, the Arctic melting and the impact of that on the Jet Stream must be having an impact, I've read a few articles now about it. Weather patterns in general seem to have changed so much, just look at the current spell, yet another record breaker. 

Edited by James1979
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Ryukai Rising Star

Ryukai

Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Climate change, the Arctic melting and the impact of that on the Jet Stream must be having an impact, I've read a few articles now about it. Weather patterns in general seem to have changed so much, just look at the current spell, yet another record breaker. 

Wouldn't surprise me if the current record breaking weather is being helped along by the lack of contrails, normally there's at least half a dozen in the sky (even on 'clear' sunny days) and often more, barely see one a day now.  All that extra sunlight/heat reaching the surface instead of being reflected back into space has got to be having some sort of effect.

Also I can see a 'wall' (not a thunderstorm wall, keep your pants on ) of cloud creeping upwards from the horizon to the NW, crossing my fingers for some incoming rain in a few hours or so.

Edited by Ryukai
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