Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Lu. said:

I watched that lot go pass, on high ground it looked fairly impressive - Im surprised there wasnt even one bolt.

There was a sferic showing north of here but didn't hear any thunder and it weakened a fair bit before it arrived. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Reports of a funnel cloud over the South Downs. Would be interesting to see photos of that. Otherwise looks like another afternoon of wasted potential

[Paul Sherman]

Well I did say South of Gatwick earlier and this was just South of there

Not my Pic btw - Should have made the trip down there though after chasing in Suffolk and Essex yesterday 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Paul Sherman

[Eagle Eye]

23 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

When i had that view yesterday i didn't want it pass, i couldn't get out my phone in time it looked great further away

[Mapantz]

A couple of spots of rain today which you could count on one hand.

 

[ChannelThunder]

Some more very encouraging model runs today for us storm fans. Next weekend onward could be interesting. Everything crossed for a few days of humid, stormy fun.

[Eagle Eye]

Monday : showers clearing later

Tuesday :low approaching southern England through Scotland

Wednesday: system goes through and maybe a thunderstorm breaking out at the Midlands area

Thursday : a new system approaches with showers and thunderstorms breaking out ahead of the system

Friday : thunderstorms in the morning are possible

Saturday: Rain possible with another system, thunderstorms also

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Well I did say South of Gatwick earlier and this was just South of there

Not my Pic btw - Should have made the trip down there though after chasing in Suffolk and Essex yesterday 

Is that a funnel, as it looks like it's down. Could just be perspective 

 

[matt111]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A couple of spots of rain today which you could count on one hand.

 

Are those pictures from the one off the coast that's just passed me to the west?

[Mapantz]

Just now, matt111 said:

Are those pictures from the one off the coast that's just passed me to the west?

Yap!

I can still see the rainbow now - been going 25 minutes at least!

[alexhawkins]

54 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Is that a funnel, as it looks like it's down. Could just be perspective 

 

That is a funnel cloud. was it rotating when this was taken. looks like an F1 tornado. you can see the wall cloud which summoned the funnel cloud. good picture. as far as i know england does get tornados. this looked like it almost touched down 

[staplehurst]

Looks like two boundaries merged in the vicinity of the South Downs around the time the photo / videos were taken - this is a model simulation so may not be completely accurate in placement, timing etc, but it shows a plausible evolution this evening...

These showers developed along a sea breeze convergence zone. You can see in this model animation how the sea breeze developed late morning and advanced inland during the afternoon. Along this boundary, opposing winds (from the south and north) meet and the air then gets forced upwards, generating deep convection and showers or thunderstorms. This converging of winds also creates spin, or vorticity, and this can get stretched upwards towards the cloud base.

At the same time, a second boundary (warm front) was sinking southwards during the afternoon, and the two merged just north of Brighton around 6pm (17:00 UTC). This merging of boundaries can create additional forcing and spin, and this may have partly contributed to the funnel cloud that developed in the vicinity of the South Downs, before the whole line of heavy showers moved southwards / offshore...

Edited June 7, 2020 by staplehurst

[chionomaniac]

Further to the funnel cloud reports I managed to timelapse the developing storm about 12 miles further north and you can see the rotation develop before the storm matured. By the time I chased it was too late. Doh. Also pics of the storm to the south of East Sussex. And a most beautiful sunset from Ditchling beacon with the added bonus of a red rainbow   

Edited June 7, 2020 by chionomaniac

[Frosty hollows]

2 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Further to the funnel cloud reports I managed to timelapse the developing storm about 12 miles further north and you can see the rotation develop before the storm matured. By the time I chased it was too late. Doh. Also pics of the storm to the south of East Sussex. And a most beautiful sunset from Ditchling beacon with the added bonus of a red rainbow   

Amazing! Thank you!

[Thunder and Lightning]

Even though things will change, It's definitely looking interesting, with both Friday and Saturday having significant CAPE on the 0z NetWX MR. The GFS Ensembles also look good, with a rise in CAPE around the 13th-15th.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 hours ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Even though things will change, It's definitely looking interesting, with both Friday and Saturday having significant CAPE on the 0z NetWX MR. The GFS Ensembles also look good, with a rise in CAPE around the 13th-15th.

As I always say: the next event is always somewhere in FI. So while it’s never a good idea to bank anything on which glimmer of hope will materialise into actual storms on the day, there’s nothing wrong with checking it out and keeping tabs on what potential may come our way.

A week can go by very quickly at the moment, so it’s never as far away as you think

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Next weds is grabbing my attention:

 

A decent(ish) pull of warmer air up from the continent in advance of a strong low moving in from the west. Could be gone by tomorrow but the next few weeks look exciting all the same

[Zak M]

Just looked at the 10km WRF-NMM and for day 5 it's showing some sort of band of rain in the early hours of that day and I can't tell whether that could be thundery rain or just plain dynamic rainfall

[Thunder and Lightning]

Still the same threat of T-Storms on both Friday and Saturday by the latest NetWx MR, but this time the Saturday threat is further north with some reasonable shear being forecasted to maybe aid in organisation. Again this will probably end up fizzling out or significantly changing but like FFBB said it is still interesting to look at.

[Mapantz]

I wouldn't trust that set of GEFS. Look at the OP run compared to the control & mean - something awry.

[Jamie M]

I am loving seeing this eye candy off models. Highly unlikely that anything'll come off but seeing those high CAPE values is wonderful.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

59 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just looked at the 10km WRF-NMM and for day 5 it's showing some sort of band of rain in the early hours of that day and I can't tell whether that could be thundery rain or just plain dynamic rainfall

Possibly some thunder in there. It would be dependent on how much ML CAPE could be brewed or advected in off the near continent, probably a fair bit under an increasingly muggy E-SE feed. 

[WxHerts]

Lol, too early for discussing specifics no? Let's get the pattern nailed on first I'd say, the very complex pattern might I add!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, bradleywx said:

Lol, too early for discussing specifics no? Let's get the pattern nailed on first I'd say, the very complex pattern might I add!

Far too early to nail exact detail. But the broad picture is looking likely that we could see some decent convective events both homegrown and maybe even imported in from the SE. Places like Benelux and Germany are in for some pretty high temperatures. So anything that does form over there (pretty likely!) could head over this way. 

[WxHerts]

25 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Far too early to nail exact detail. But the broad picture is looking likely that we could see some decent convective events both homegrown and maybe even imported in from the SE. Places like Benelux and Germany are in for some pretty high temperatures. So anything that does form over there (pretty likely!) could head over this way. 

Yeah agreed, a potentially great convective setup on the way..I was questioning more the use of hi res models already lol, far too early!