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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


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A quick recap of my day, without getting too waffly. It has been an absolute classic and my favourite/most successful chase so far. - started fairly benign as I failed to get a good handle on the

100% Bonafide Supercell no doubting that whatsoever 35knts of flow, Moved right of the deviant steering flow Killed off anything that came near it Like most Supercells massive uptick in

Nice little thunderstorm finally drought is over!  London webcams: I grabbed this!!! 

Posted Images

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well that brightened me up no end!!!! Thanks @bradleywx. Word of caution I’m not seeing much in the way of instability during this timeframe so we’ll have to see exactly how much lightning might be forthcoming...I remain sceptical both about this and the Beeb forecast earlier today

You don’t want to look at the latest Beeb forecast from 15 minutes ago. I hope they are wrong. Literally no precipitation whatsoever on the radar during the forecast for the London area and the SE for both tomorrow and Thursday all of a sudden ?.Shattered my hopes. But I’ll keep monitoring all this. AROME, ECM and GFS all look on board with heavy rainfall across the S/SE so don’t understand where the BBC are getting their ideas from about no precipitation ??

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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13 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Rapid intensification! Now 8 flashes in less than 2 minutes! 

Here you go Andy.

20:52hrs

IMG_20200616_205237492.thumb.jpg.ac7c87c5f6980b2f03d24d26fdd6c7c3.jpg

21:22hrs

IMG_20200616_212050825_HDR.thumb.jpg.078be7d7c48bb1ebe90191dc877ee78c.jpg

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

storm here now, pitch black, lightning/thunder,

Just out of the worst of it here lasted 30 mins max I would say but still rumbling in the background.

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Interesting evening. Brewed a storm which got interesting for the folks west of here. Some nice flashes as it just left.

North sea cloud is now rolling in which will possibly kill any chances of any later storms.

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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

You don’t want to look at the latest Beeb forecast from 15 minutes ago. I hope they are wrong. Literally no precipitation whatsoever on the radar during the forecast for the London area and the SE for both tomorrow and Thursday all of a sudden ?.Shattered my hopes. But I’ll keep monitoring all this. AROME, ECM and GFS all look on board with heavy rainfall across the S/SE so don’t understand where the BBC are getting their ideas from about no precipitation ??

Well that’s what I was thinking - when I looked at ARPÈGE and WRF-NMM earlier it wasn’t indicating anything at all...in such a static setup I’m baffled at how the models are SO divergent and temperamental. 

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6 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Okay.... who pressed the red button!

Looks like we might catch part of the storm, plus that small development round Uttoxeter has started producins strikes. Fingers crossed!

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Can clearly see the towering 'thunderhead' from the Salisbury cell from Brighton.

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2 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Looks like we might catch part of the storm, plus that small development round Uttoxeter has started producins strikes. Fingers crossed!

Strangely enough that thing is moving West, looks like it's going to merge with the main one coming from Birmingham.

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Thunder again - I've lost count now. I wish our weather here in the North West came from the East/South East more often! It's so much more interesting than usual. We've got the storm in the North West now which in a normal year would be extremely impressive, then my eye is on all that in the midlands moving northwest. My gut says it will dissipate before it gets up here but who knows in this set up I'm not ruling anything out.

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Just now, Ryukai said:

Strangely enough that thing is moving SW, looks like it's going to merge with the main one coming from Birmingham.

I think the omne showing in Stoke is false. It would be 400 metres from me & I heard nothing.

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Here is the storm over Bradfield(uncut),peak district,i had to take my daughter as she refuses to stay at home,she has autism spectrum bless her but she enjoyed it,

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Well with the Cone not getting anything I took it upon myself to head upto Cambs for a leisurely late afternoon and early evening chase and got some lovely Structure nice Cgs positioning along the Convergence Zone - SE Essex had naff all 

IMG_20200616_184652.jpg

whats the thoughts with tomorrow then mate? 

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10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well that’s what I was thinking - when I looked at ARPÈGE and WRF-NMM earlier it wasn’t indicating anything at all...in such a static setup I’m baffled at how the models are SO divergent and temperamental. 

It’s got to be down to the current situation especially with the lack of aircraft observation.s or something with less data being available. Incredible how on Sunday, less than 48 hours away, things were still looking amazing for the SE but then suddenly on Monday it all started to disappear and move further north and west like it has done. Next thing we know, the mini heatwave with 30C possible next week could suddenly change to a northerly outbreak or something ?

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Well with the Cone not getting anything I took it upon myself to head upto Cambs for a leisurely late afternoon and early evening chase and got some lovely Structure nice Cgs positioning along the Convergence Zone - SE Essex had naff all 

 

Alas, I can confirm this is true.  Things are potentially looking better for the next couple of days however.

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Back edge of the Birmingham storm. It lasted from about 6.30 until 8, so a decent length. I wish we had these set-ups more often each Summer. 

The constant deep rumbles were impressive and matched the Stoke May storm which was very localised for me in intensity.

Now peaks of sun as it goes down, perfect end. Only wish the murk earlier could have cleared quicker.

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