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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2020 Onward


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You'll like this one.... Some kids were camping over in the Downton meadows last night. Packing up in the rain this morning, we watched them bag their rubbish up, then chuck it in the trees. I shouted

My poor attempt at taking photos of lightning with the phone! 

Just missed out in frome again , but took a short a short stroll  to a good vantage point and caught  funnel cloud 

Posted Images

Looking dark and moody out there now.

picture doesn’t really do it justice 

9A20093A-DDA0-4B89-A985-D27C5D6C6B45.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, fromey said:

Looks like the beginning of a shelf cloud

D17D7579-1A45-4EA6-BBCF-6ADA3CB32A43.jpeg

Hi Fromey,

 

This was unexpected wasn't it. 

Rainfall radar showing a lot coming in too from the southwest ! 

Was baking earlier in the sun with no wind. 

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Steamy 31.4°C here on the South Coast, feeling very oppressive without any breeze.

Can see that cloud out in the Channel starting to move towards, so I will be at the peak locally here now heat wise. 

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Was about to hit 32°C when that cloud moved in here. Interestingly, there was a jump of just over 1°C in the space of 20 minutes ahead of that cloud.

If that's the maximum - and it probably is - then that's 2°C above yesterday's model consensus, which was strong even when comparing the global models with the high-resolution ones.

The 06z ARPEGE of today upped its prediction 32°C, so a successful adjustment there. Interestingly, this is with it making less of this area of cloud than the reality is proving to be. ECM also adjusted upward for its 00z, but was still a degree short.

Tomorrow, ARPEGE predicts the same maximum but with hardly any cloud interfering - just a bit of high cloud at times - and a NE wind. I think there's scope for the max to climb a degree or two higher if it does stay that clear. After all, ECM predicts 32°C, a degree up on what it had for today.

For Sunday, ARPEGE drops down a degree but ECM again predicts 32°C.
 

On top of all these model figures, today was unexpectedly handicapped by temps dropping to the low teens last night. A shallow inversion that the models totally overlooked! I'd be even more surprised to see the same happen tonight, as the broad scale flow looks stronger.

Overall, I sense that for the far south of England from Dorset eastward, today is just the taster and the weekend will be the main course that ups the ante slightly.

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Maxed out at 31.6°C at: 12:29, now down to 27.8°C, and the cloudy skies must be p*$$ing the beachgoers off....look a tad ominous there... 

image.png

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Looks as if we will get rain in the next 15 minutes or so,looking at the radar. I thought we were in for a hot,sunny day!

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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Was about to hit 32°C when that cloud moved in here. Interestingly, there was a jump of just over 1°C in the space of 20 minutes ahead of that cloud.

If that's the maximum - and it probably is - then that's 2°C above yesterday's model consensus, which was strong even when comparing the global models with the high-resolution ones.

The 06z ARPEGE of today upped its prediction 32°C, so a successful adjustment there. Interestingly, this is with it making less of this area of cloud than the reality is proving to be. ECM also adjusted upward for its 00z, but was still a degree short.

Tomorrow, ARPEGE predicts the same maximum but with hardly any cloud interfering - just a bit of high cloud at times - and a NE wind. I think there's scope for the max to climb a degree or two higher if it does stay that clear. After all, ECM predicts 32°C, a degree up on what it had for today.

For Sunday, ARPEGE drops down a degree but ECM again predicts 32°C.
 

On top of all these model figures, today was unexpectedly handicapped by temps dropping to the low teens last night. A shallow inversion that the models totally overlooked! I'd be even more surprised to see the same happen tonight, as the broad scale flow looks stronger.

Overall, I sense that for the far south of England from Dorset eastward, today is just the taster and the weekend will be the main course that ups the ante slightly.

By contrast, the ARPEGE overcooked temperatures down here, and still shows them overcooked by later this afternoon. It certainly doesn't show the PPN that is invading!

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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Was about to hit 32°C when that cloud moved in here. Interestingly, there was a jump of just over 1°C in the space of 20 minutes ahead of that cloud.

If that's the maximum - and it probably is - then that's 2°C above yesterday's model consensus, which was strong even when comparing the global models with the high-resolution ones.

The 06z ARPEGE of today upped its prediction 32°C, so a successful adjustment there. Interestingly, this is with it making less of this area of cloud than the reality is proving to be. ECM also adjusted upward for its 00z, but was still a degree short.

Tomorrow, ARPEGE predicts the same maximum but with hardly any cloud interfering - just a bit of high cloud at times - and a NE wind. I think there's scope for the max to climb a degree or two higher if it does stay that clear. After all, ECM predicts 32°C, a degree up on what it had for today.

For Sunday, ARPEGE drops down a degree but ECM again predicts 32°C.
 

On top of all these model figures, today was unexpectedly handicapped by temps dropping to the low teens last night. A shallow inversion that the models totally overlooked! I'd be even more surprised to see the same happen tonight, as the broad scale flow looks stronger.

Overall, I sense that for the far south of England from Dorset eastward, today is just the taster and the weekend will be the main course that ups the ante slightly.

Was comparing the models this morning as well and came to the rough same conclusions for my area too. Appears both the ARPEGE and ECM were pretty spot on for here at 32°C (Just had a high of 31.9°C), again the cloud is now moving in and the temperature is rising. 

I am not looking forward to this weekend, NE'ly winds always brings the highest temperatures here locally, so expecting at least a 35°C appearing, especially on Sunday.

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6 minutes ago, snowdog said:

Looks as if we will get rain in the next 15 minutes or so,looking at the radar. I thought we were in for a hot,sunny day!

Well we had half of a hot sunny day, I suspect by next Thursday we'll be looking forward to something cooler.....8)

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What the hell has happened with the forecast? In Southampton at the moment and I'm sure all this cloud and approaching rain was not forecast

Edited by OddSpot
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2 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Just how quick will this clear when the rain arrives???

Capture.JPG

Will depend on how much reaches the surface - as it's from high-based cloud I expect there to be a lot of evaporation on the way down.

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Cloudy and oppressive even though the temperature isn't that high compared to others at 25.5 °C. Just had a bit of rain, big spots and enough to wet the ground for a while. 

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Only managed 26.7C here already beginning to drop down to 25.1C, there appears to be more elevated showers around than I was expecting today, just shows how that effects temperatures locally today!

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A lot of mid level unstable looking cloud today. Cells with sefrics were coming but they just weakened to add to more general mid level cloud and a brief shower... standard.

Cloudy here, brief peak of 26.3C earlier before dropping to 22.7C. Currently creeping back up to 24.8C. very light, variable winds and no sea breeze. Would probably be quite hot with sunshine but then something always scuppers it 😂
Plymouth is 27.1C lol, surprising how often even there is hotter than here in warm spells.

Last Friday had a load of mid level/high cloud at the would-be hottest time of day too.

Looks like tomorrow will be into the 30's for Dorset eastwards:
image.thumb.png.a4bcf2798809111d04f326e952990251.png

I reckon Alderc and Mapantz will be in a good area for that tomorrow even if there's a bit of high cloud. The real hot air not getting west of Dorset, as ever..

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