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June 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests


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EWP final outcome estimate at 110 mm with 83 mm down (incl 2 mm est for yesterday with 81 mm to 24th), about 25-30 mm potential (heavier rain in north, 10-15 mm south). Still no guarantee of breaking 101 mm to determine the high score, slightly favouring Weather26 on the higher side of the mid-point. 

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Just to let everyone know, the scores will be a little delayed this month. Probably will be out on Saturday.

EWP Annual Scoring (7 months) _ Updated for June  _ _ _ note: Avg error only compared if 5/7 to 7/7 contests entered. _ _ _ __ ___ ____ _____ lower half of scores for regular participants in

15.7c to the 27th 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st Current low this month 13.0c t

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Sunny Sheffield at 15C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 97.4mm 133.4% of the monthly average.

Slowly limping to 100mm mark temps should fall a little probably settling around 14.7C for the final figure

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15.6c to the 26th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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A warmer and for most wetter than average June on the cards, locally notably wetter than average for some - coming on the back of the very dry April and May.

Also suspect only average sunshine levels at best this month.

So quite a switch in fortune has occurred in some respects, a very mixed month with a bit of everything.

 

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Sunny Sheffield up to 15.1C +0.9C above average. Rainfall how up to 100.6mm 137.8% of the monthly average.

Surprise rise for yesterday this was due to the shower activity being much less than I expected.

Temperatures for June here look to close to average with the next days being on the cold to cool side.

Edited by The PIT
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15.7c to the 27th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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Sunny Sheffield still at 15.1C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 102.3mm 140.1% of the monthly average

Looks like now we will finish on 15C.

Edited by The PIT
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15.6c to the 28th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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rainy Edmonton is at 13.8c to the 28th which is 1.7c below average..will finish yet another month below normal..looks cool and wet all this week however rainfall is trending on average..June historically is the 2nd wettest month of the year after July.

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51 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

rainy Edmonton is at 13.8c to the 28th which is 1.7c below average..will finish yet another month below normal..looks cool and wet all this week however rainfall is trending on average..June historically is the 2nd wettest month of the year after July.

Does it ever warm up in Edmonton though cheeky? I thought Canada could get quite mild in the Summer months.

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

Does it ever warm up in Edmonton though cheeky? I thought Canada could get quite mild in the Summer months.

Just on a run of colder than normal months..its not unusual for this part of the world to have long runs of cold months and long runs of warm months..if la nina does indeed kick in i expect the weather to flip to warm conditions from mid late July on with a warm late summer and autumn..we will see

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15.6c to the 29th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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On 01/06/2020 at 00:14, Roger J Smith said:

Table of forecasts for June 2020

_ number in brackets gives the order of entry of your last revised forecast _

 

CET __ EWP __ Forecaster ____________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster

21.0 ___ 0.3 __ Thundershine ( 16 ) ____ 15.1 __ 41.0 __ Relativistic ( 5 )

20.5 __200.0__ Lettucing Gutted ( 1 ) ___ 15.1 __ 47.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 20 )

18.5 ___ 8.3 __ Shillitocettwo ( 12 ) _____ 15.1 __ 60.0 __ The PIT ( 33 )

16.5 __ 25.2 __ Polar Gael( 10 ) ________15.1 __ 44.0 __ DAVID SNOW ( 51 )

16.4 __ 77.0 __ Bobd29 ( 15 ) _________ 15.1 __ 48.0 __ mb018538 ( 52 )

16.4 __ 77.7 __ Dog Toffee ( 22 ) _______ 15.1 __ 64.0 __ Stationary Front ( 54 )

16.3 __ 45.0 __ General Cluster ( 43 ) ___ 15.1 __ 36.0 __ Jacky ( 55 )

16.1 __ 53.5 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 30 ) __  15.1 __ ----- __ Summer Sun ( L1-5 )

16.0 __ 45.0 __ Earthshine ( 18 ) _______15.0 __ 40.0 __ Freeze ( 2 )

15.9 __ 36.5 __ snowray ( 19 ) _________15.0 __ 26.0 __ I Remember Atl 252 ( 11 )

15.9 __ ----- __ Mark Bayley ( 37 ) ______15.0 __30.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 24 )

15.9 __ 33.0 __ Wold Topper ( 60 ) ______ 15.0 __ 19.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 40 )

15.8 __ 40.0 __ B87 ( ) ______________15.0 __ 64.1 __ 2010cold ( 49 )

15.8 __ 55.0 __ stewfox ( 28 ) __________ 15.0 __ 47.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-4 ) _

15.8 __ 48.0 __ Born from the Void ( 44 ) _ 14.9 __ 50.0 __ NeilN ( 6 )

15.8 __ 50.0 __ J10  L1-8 ) ____________

15.7 __ 55.0 __ pegg24 ( 32 ) __________ 14.9 __ 60.0 __ prolongedSnowLover ( 21 )

15.7 __ 38.2 __Thundery Wintry Showers ( 47 )_14.9 __ ----- __ Man with Beard ( 41 )

15.7 __ 38.0 __ stargazer ( 61 ) _________14.9 __ 67.0 __ Blast from the Past ( L1-1 )

15.6 __ 54.0 __ Alderc ( ) ____________ 14.8 __ 35.0 __ weather-history ( 34 )

15.6 __ 37.0 __ seaside60 ( 50 ) ________ 14.8 __ 39.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 45 )

15.6 __ ----- __ Duncan McAlister ( L1-6) __14.7 __ 72.0 __ virtualsphere ( 17 )

15.6 __ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-7) _14.7 __ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 ( 62 )

15.5 __ 47.0 __ brmbrmcar ( 13 ) ________14.7 __ 63.0 __ Godber1 ( 59 )

15.5 __ 50.0 __ Twilight ( 23 ) __________ 14.6 __ 33.0 __ Timmytour ( 27 )

15.5 __ 40.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 25 ) __ 14.6 __ 57.0 __ Mulzy ( 53 )

15.5 __ 55.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 31 ) ________ 14.6 __ 69.7 __ 1990-2019 average

15.5 __ 45.0 __ Don ( 58 ) _____________14.5 __ 66.3 __ 1981-2010 average

15.4 __ 67.0 __ SteveB ( ) ___________ 14.4 __124.0__Weather26 ( 3 )

15.4 __ 41.9 __ CheesepuffScott ( 26 ) ___14.4 __ 55.0 __ daniel* ( 57 )

15.4 __ ----- __ sundog ( 36 ) ___________14.3 __ 55.0 __ syed2878 ( 29 )

15.4 __ ----- __ damianslaw ( 42 ) _______ 14.2 __ 60.0 __ JeffC ( )

15.4 __ ----- __ dancerwithwings ( L1-2 ) __ 14.2 __ 75.0 __ East Lancs Rain ( L2-1 )

15.3 __ 37.0 __ Reef ( 38 ) _____________13.9 __ 65.8 __ Roger J Smith ( 35 )

15.3 __ 51.0 __ February1978 ( 63 ) _____ 13.6 __ ----- __ Kentish Man ( 46 )

15.2 __ 49.0 __ Leo97t ( 39 ) ___________13.6 __ 70.0 __ Jonboy ( L1-3 )

15.2 __ 48.0 __ Norrance ( 48 ) _________ 13.3 __ 77.0 __ LetItSnow! ( 14 )

15.2 __ 35.0 __ davehsug ( 56 ) ________

15.2 __ 48.0 __ Consensus 

______________________________

63 forecasts (on time) so far, plus eight that are one day late, and one that is two days late,

... 72 total ... consensus 15.2

_ late entries accepted to end of 3rd June, will be added to table _ 

=====================================

EWP Forecasts in order

200 LG .. 124 wx26 .. 77.7 DT .. 77 LIS, bob .. 75 ELR^^ .. 72 virt  .. 70 jon^..  69.7 90-19 .. 67 Ste. BFTP^

 66.3 81-10 ... 65.8 RJS ... 64.1 2010cold ... 64 SF ... 63 Godb ... 60 Jef, PSL, PIT ... 57 Mul

 55 Stew, syed, DR(S)NO, pegg, dan* ...  54 Ald ... 53.5 Feb91 ... 51 Feb78 ...  50 NN, Twi, J10^

 49 Leo ... 48 BFTV, Norr, mb, con .. 47.4 KW... 47 brm, MIA^ ... 45 Earth, GC, Don ... 44 DS ... 41.9 CPS

 41 Rel ...  40 fre,B87,DRL ... 39 MrM ... 38.2 TWS ... 38 star ...  37 Reef, sea60 ... 36 Jacky

 36.5 snow ... 35 wx-h, dave ... 33 Tim, WT ...  30 SB ... 26 IRAtl ... 25.2 PG ... 19 EG ... 8.3 Shil ... 0.3 Thun

_______________

57 forecasts (on time) so far, plus four that are shown one day late (^) and one that is two days late (^^)

 ... 62 total. _ consensus 48.0 mm.

 

This is going to be tight. If the rounded down CET ends up 15.1C, for instance, then some forecasts just 0.2C out won't even be in the top 20!!

It would be interesting to analysis how the "consensus" would have fared in the competition - I think there have been several months where the consensus has been extremely close this year - I think it would be leading the way!

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I will go back over scoring and find out how consensus is doing, have not been keeping track this year. For the EWP, current value is 94 mm (to the 28th) plus a small amount from 29th (2-3 mm) and whatever falls today. Will be quite close to 100 mm. 

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Will be close this month, I guessed 15.4 degrees. Think a final finish 15.3 degrees on the cards, possibly 15.4, outside chance 15.2 due to downward correction. An above average month, but not especially so, and masks some preety cooler than average conditions early on the month. Cloudy skies have helped to keep minima up, maxima more subdued.

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On 31/05/2020 at 21:02, Jacky said:

Right so its time to enter my first CET/EWP contest on netweather, so:

CET:15.1

EWP: 36

Looking a bit wetter this June but again nothing properly unsettled. Most of it likely to fall in first half, Could get drier for second half. For CET, slightly above average but this upcoming cooler spell could exxagerate making it look quite cool for a bit particularly first half of month. However it recovers by second half as again warmer air could reach Uk later.

 

So my summary for this Past June wasn't all that bad, did have most of rain fall in first half and getting warmer second half with that heatwave near the end but shortlived, CET prediciton quite close.

But The EWP, well ? thats a different story, ended up much wetter than pretty much what we all thought, mostly due to the the heavy thunderstorms, but also few days with widespread frontal rain delivering high totals, to some.

 

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J10 mentioned the scoring may be delayed a few days, based only on the table of entries, the top scores will be in this order:

 

FORECASTER ____ Fcst __ order of entry __ error

 

Reef ______________15.3 __38 __________ 0.0 

February1978 ______ 15.3 __63 __________ 0.0

SteveB ___________ 15.4 __ 9 __________ +0.1 

CheesepuffScott ____15.4 __ 26 _________ +0.1 

sundog ___________ 15.4 __36 __________ +0.1 

Leo97t ____________15.2 __ 39 _________--0.1 

damianslaw ________15.4 __42 __________ +0.1

Norrance __________15.2 __ 48 _________--0.1

davehsug _________ 15.2 __ 56 _________ --0.1

dancerwithwings ____ 15.4 __65 __________+0.1

____________________________ ______________________

For the EWP forecasts the current estimate is 98 mm, will get a more precise value tomorrow and give some scoring updates for EWP.

The top combined forecast is SteveB who was third for CET and likely 8th for EWP. Most of the closer EWP forecasts were way off on the CET.

Anyone not in the list above with an error of 0.2 or greater can estimate their position by checking the table of entries, and comparing order of entry among those with similar errors (on both sides of the outcome as illustrated by the top ten, for example, 15.1 forecasts will share with 15.5 determined by order of entry in that pool, etc.

 

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I’m happy with that! Another good month for myself with just 0.2c error. 

Getting a good grasp of temperatures, but not doing so well on the rainfall front. I think it doesn’t help that in recent months it’s either been soaking wet, bone dry and not much in between! ?

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Despite a background of continual warmth, June in recent decades has yet to return a very high CET compared to the average. Nothing in the top 15 since 1976. 

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