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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Do we declaretoday as a no show for thunderstorms? All development has seemed to just stop as the trough got closer , maybe the trough is cutting all the development off

We will have a small chance any time today, so don't feel down just yet. One thing I've noticed on water vapour is that the trough is taking more of a NE track then expected, and allowing some moisture to flow in behind it. I don't know if this is a valid thing to note but I was wondering about it.

Edited by Thunder and Lightning
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I got this about 15-20 minutes ago from the London cell. I'm very shocked I got this.

Timing is key for Thursday - we've mentioned before how both the phasing and shape/characteristics of the mid/upper level trough will ultimately determine how many thunderstorms (if any) develop. Mode

My sister got this great pic from leith hill tower 

Posted Images

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Do we declaretoday as a no show for thunderstorms? All development has seemed to just stop as the trough got closer , maybe the trough is cutting all the development off

Yeah Really doesn’t feel like anything is going to really kick off today to me. looked really promising on Tuesday as is always the case? now looking like a bu...  for me at least as all cloud is forming anywhere east of me 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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Just now, Mitch perrott said:

Do we declaretoday as a no show for thunderstorms? All development has seemed to just stop as the trough got closer , maybe the trough is cutting all the development off

For the south-east there is still a slight opportunity for a few hours this morning that an isolated thunderstorm could develop ahead of and along the weakening cold front. There is then another chance during the early hours of tomorrow morning as a deep low pressure approaches from the Atlantic and pulls the plume back northwards across the south-east of England. The biggest risk for both today and tonight would appear to be across eastern parts of Norfolk and Suffolk, but it is worth noting that some of the models are no longer supporting any activity at all. Lets just say it would be worth keeping your windows open if you live in the southeast but it would not be worth me getting in my car and driving anywhere, the risk is just too low.

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Not sure why everyone’s using the word bust. Thunderstorms are ment to develop along the line of precipitation, as it is now to oxford area. Between 9z and 12z the trough will pass through. It just depends on har far easy or west it decides to kick off, but precipitation is now building on the south of the band of rain. It’s not a bust it was always going to be hit or miss and a bit later than now ! Patience 

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9 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Do we declaretoday as a no show for thunderstorms? All development has seemed to just stop as the trough got closer , maybe the trough is cutting all the development off

Still the potential for a few SB-based storms later on but for the majority it looks to be a no show.

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1 minute ago, Supacell said:

For the south-east there is still a slight opportunity for a few hours this morning that an isolated thunderstorm could develop ahead of and along the weakening cold front. There is then another chance during the early hours of tomorrow morning as a deep low pressure approaches from the Atlantic and pulls the plume back northwards across the south-east of England. The biggest risk for both today and tonight would appear to be across eastern parts of Norfolk and Suffolk, but it is worth noting that some of the models are no longer supporting any activity at all. Lets just say it would be worth keeping your windows open if you live in the southeast but it would not be worth me getting in my car and driving anywhere, the risk is just too low.

Sounds interesting ? I mean watching the radar now all the cells seem to be decaying slowly and I'm in Ramsgate, is that close enough to the ideal locations? 

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3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Sounds interesting ? I mean watching the radar now all the cells seem to be decaying slowly and I'm in Ramsgate, is that close enough to the ideal locations? 

Ramsgate is in a decent location for today's chances and also the returning plume overnight. It doesn't by any means guarantee a storm though, as most people will miss out on this one i'm afraid. Overall it is disappointing compared to what was being shown 2-3 days ago, but then this is standard fare for UK storms.

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Trough passing to my North and East. To my West, unbroken skies and sunshine, to my East looking unstable with rapid cloud forming. So  possibility of something further NE for you guys.

20200521_082957.jpg

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Ramsgate is in a decent location for today's chances and also the returning plume overnight. It doesn't by any means guarantee a storm though, as most people will miss out on this one i'm afraid. Overall it is disappointing compared to what was being shown 2-3 days ago, but then this is standard fare for UK storms.

UK is awful for storms  ;-; but yeah I'm hoping tonight I get the tale of the plume tonight, if you look on estofex is that warning for tonight or this morning? Doesn't really tell me when , also in the image below just spotted this little fella  

Screenshot_2020-05-21-08-38-48.png

Edited by Mitch perrott
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Posted (edited)

Guys you need to stop being so negative. It’s not even 9am and the suns just come out and the trough still hasn’t passed and your calling it a bust. Sorry to be rude but if your being negative don’t post lol. If you actually read the storm forecast. As diurnal heating and Mucape increases it will trigger elevated based storms mid/late morning clearing easy Anglia by late afternoon. It’s not even 9am. LOL chill out and give it till 12z. Your only aloud to call a bust when the troughs passed and nothing happened. This is the exact reason I came of here cos your all so negative 

 

PS acc as and cumulus.... looks pretty unstable to me, actually it’s better that it’s now sunny and not all that messy Accas blocking the heat. Give it time you bunch of impatient guys

E76B0CCC-E29F-4C2A-A3BA-7376888C3BEE.png

image.jpg

Edited by Justin1705
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3 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Guys you need to stop being so negative. It’s not even 9am and the suns just come out and the trough still hasn’t passed and your calling it a bust. Sorry to be rude but if your being negative don’t post lol. If you actually read the storm forecast. As diurnal heating and Mucape increases it will trigger surfaced based storms mid/late morning clearing easy Anglia by late afternoon. It’s not even 9am. LOL chill out and give it till 12z. Your only aloud to call a bust when the troughs passed and nothing happened. This is the exact reason I came of here cos your all so negative 

 

PS acc as and cumulus.... looks pretty unstable to me, actually it’s better that it’s now sunny and not all that messy Accas blocking the heat. Give it time you bunch of impatient guys

E76B0CCC-E29F-4C2A-A3BA-7376888C3BEE.png

image.jpg

No need to be toxic about it bb ^-^

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

No need to be toxic about it bb ^-^

lol it’s not toxic. The people who are toxic are the depressing negative ones who are here winter spring summer and autumn, calling everything a bust. It’s just not needed. It’s always the same people aswell..... looks like we won’t get snow bust. Not getting storms bust. Ok if that’s the case fine. We can all see that the sky is huge you know ???

 

boils down to the old saying if you can’t say anything good don’t say it at all, maybe a little controversial right now but it has to be said ?

Edited by Justin1705
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got some rain. nice fat blobs

blow me.

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Trough passing through here east of Leeds looks a lot more promising than the 5 drops of rain it actually produced ? 

20200521_084334.thumb.jpg.7b070de4d0ada8363b2e33de17f2269b.jpg20200521_084342.thumb.jpg.27e53a40aa3ea93709c83b44b0ac9869.jpg

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

lol it’s not toxic. The people who are toxic are the depressing negative ones who are here winter spring summer and autumn, calling everything a bust. It’s just not needed. It’s always the same people aswell..... looks like we won’t get snow bust. Not getting storms bust. Ok if that’s the case fine. We can all see that the sky is huge you know ???

 

boils down to the old saying if you can’t say anything good don’t say it at all, maybe a little controversial right now but it has to be said ?

Maybe put some thought process and understanding and appreciation that not everyone here are professional mets... most people radar watch so of course if nothing happens on the radar the closer and closer the trough gets to them, the more likely in there opinion they would see it as a bust which you should understand from there POV , you can't get sick of a community for expressing there opinions, that's why this forum is so iconic, everyone is open and one big understanding and friendly family, now enjoy the storms  ^-^

Edited by Mitch perrott
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Posted (edited)

Nearing 23°C here in Herne Bay this morning. Could hit 27/28°C before the day is gone! Might be enough to trigger a small storm.

Edited by KentHC_WX
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Just now, Mitch perrott said:

Maybe put some though process and understanding and appreciation that not everyone here are professional mets... most people radar watch so of course if nothing happens on the radar the closer and closer the trough gets to them, the more likely in there opinion they would see it as a bust which you should understand from there POV , you can't get sick of a community for expressing there opinions, that's why this forum is so iconic, everyone is open and one big understanding and friendly family, now enjoy the storms  ^-^

Listen Mitch,

 

I didn’t mean no harm in saying what I said, and I’m not a professional Met by any stretch of the imagination. It’s just frustrating when the suns been up 2 hours and I’ve seen the workd bust. It’s like a world record. But furthermore keep an eye towards eastAnglia and Home Counties as the trough starts to move through London and the SE hopefully triggering something as it does. 
 

however I will personally come here and take it all back if we get a bus* . But I’m confident we should see something just because of the oppressive heat as of late 

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Just now, Justin1705 said:

Listen Mitch,

 

I didn’t mean no harm in saying what I said, and I’m not a professional Met by any stretch of the imagination. It’s just frustrating when the suns been up 2 hours and I’ve seen the workd bust. It’s like a world record. But furthermore keep an eye towards eastAnglia and Home Counties as the trough starts to move through London and the SE hopefully triggering something as it does. 
 

however I will personally come here and take it all back if we get a bus* . But I’m confident we should see something just because of the oppressive heat as of late 

No harm done!  ? and if you look to Ipswich a cell has leaped into action, could be the start , something to watch out for in my opinion 

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1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

Potent cell in Ipswich right now 

Can see it popping on satellite about 10 mins ago.

image.png

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judging from what im seeing the trough is simply too high up north for the lowest part of south east to get any action, there is still a very slim chance but its still there for a isolated storm here but tonight there is also some chance too, i think at around 11 o clock thats when i will declare if anything is going to happen or not ?

 

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