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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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I got this about 15-20 minutes ago from the London cell. I'm very shocked I got this.

Timing is key for Thursday - we've mentioned before how both the phasing and shape/characteristics of the mid/upper level trough will ultimately determine how many thunderstorms (if any) develop. Mode

My sister got this great pic from leith hill tower 

Posted Images

That'll be the 09z UKV driving the Met Office website graphics. Differences between the 06z (left) and 09z (right) are largely related to the increased moisture in the mid-levels...

netwx5.png

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The latest EURO4 is showing absolutely nothing tomorrow! Interesting.

Instead it focuses on the early hours of Friday morning, where elevated thunderstorms form in eastern England.

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10 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

This really wont be resolved until Midnight tonight imho

I don't think it'll be resolved until tomorrow morning once the front has passed through

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11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I don't think it'll be resolved until tomorrow morning once the front has passed through

I meant probably a clearer angle from the 18z runs - You can pick out the shape of the trough coming in from the west already 

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50 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I meant probably a clearer angle from the 18z runs - You can pick out the shape of the trough coming in from the west already 

Looks like a UK wide supercell is on the way to me

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AROME has now pulled away from any activity whatsoever tomorrow, NMM also producing only one thunderstorm within the next 36 hours. Appears to be nothing more than a marginal to slight risk at the moment.

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7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

AROME has now pulled away from any activity whatsoever tomorrow, NMM also producing only one thunderstorm within the next 36 hours. Appears to be nothing more than a marginal to slight risk at the moment.

Wow, if AROME's not even interested, this could well indeed be a no-go! 

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13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

AROME has now pulled away from any activity whatsoever tomorrow, NMM also producing only one thunderstorm within the next 36 hours. Appears to be nothing more than a marginal to slight risk at the moment.

Checked latest AROME, showing activity very early morning around 6am-7am across SE??

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Posted (edited)

 

3 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Checked latest AROME, showing activity very early morning around 6am-7am across SE??

Don't know what AROME you're looking at?

arome.thumb.png.744c0e762ef8dd83fe098dd7e3553c0e.png7am.thumb.png.1ff3352e0a064fcb116776aa8decb7c8.png

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Doesn't seem to be as much cape on the GFS for tomorrow compared to runs the past few days, though plenty of cape today apparently. Looks like it's going to be the case of early radar watching, still reckon some home grown storms/thundery showers might pop up in a few places

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The emergent ARPEGE 12z 0.1 is keen to break out convective rainfall across the SE tomorrow morning 07-10z (same sort of areas as before), more isolated cells across Norfolk/Suffolk 12z -15z and then again more widely east of London 01z - 05z Friday. The WRF-NMM 2KM for 07z -12z tomorrow also breaking out precipitation in the same areas but with less coverage (but indicating up to 1,000 J/Kg CAPE). The WRF-NMM 5KM (which I’ve found to be more accurate than the 2KM) not yet updated sadly. Am curious to see the 12z Euro4 to see whether it backs more its 0z run (Better) compared with the 06z (rubbish).

All in all I think all very much to play for as we creep to within now casting time rather than model reliance. In little over 12 hours we’ll start to see which models have best handled the evolution of this setup.

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12Z UKV still has plenty of interest with the increased moisture as Dan pointed out earlier.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z UKV still has plenty of interest with the increased moisture as Dan pointed out earlier.

Don’t think I have access to that - is that a NetW Extra offering?

Hopefully we won’t have too many pessimistic assessments of the cloudless, well capped atmosphere we have currently (here in the SE anyway). The ‘plume’ isn’t expected to arrive until 05-06z at the earliest...when I hope to wake to a blanket of AcCas or even better some thunder and lightning popping off ??

Edited by Harry
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7 minutes ago, Harry said:

Don’t think I have access to that - is that a NetW Extra offering?

Yap!

1.thumb.png.2da4b2886e0304cae11674b88008d27f.png

2.thumb.png.d1a761b85245c0df701ba25485e453b7.png

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WRF-NMM 5KM is an improvement, whoop (sorry, from an IMBY perspective). By contrast however it has no interest in tomorrow night/Friday AM

01DCE176-08B6-4087-9F1E-A342DA54259B.png

AF6F68DB-73C5-45E7-9BD5-82BD590AA2FD.png

3DC00BA4-592E-403B-A544-B146C7500EE9.png

500439F8-5CF1-4240-8F8B-DEFA157F26B2.png

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Euro4 is an absolute disaster - not one drop of rain. 

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Euro4 is an absolute disaster - not one drop of rain. 

Whereas Thursday night into Friday starting to look a whole lot better and still with darkness as well if you can stomach a 3am alarm - Lol

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Whereas Thursday night into Friday starting to look a whole lot better and still with darkness as well if you can stomach a 3am alarm - Lol

I certainly can!!! And I am off Friday! What model(s) are you looking at Paul? WRF-NMM 5KM and Euro4 don’t strike me as inspiring for tomorrow night...hope you’re right though of course - 17C tomorrow night will be awful without a good ‘air clearing’ ?

Edited by Harry
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6 minutes ago, Harry said:

I certainly can!!! And I am off Friday! What model(s) are you looking at Paul? WRF-NMM 5KM and Euro4 don’t strike me as inspiring for tomorrow night...hope your right though of course - 17C tomorrow night will be awful without a good ‘air clearing’ ?

Whatever Model the Met Office were looking at - with this on T watter

 

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