Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Harry]

I’m not overly enamoured by the ARPÈGE which develops very little over the UK and in any event clears everything through by late morning. Emerging HIRLAM not much better and GFS rowing right back on CAPE. Waiting for the 12z WRF-NMM to see if that’s still keen for something. Phone app still resolutely with a thunder symbol as it has for the past couple of days. On the plus side, if at all relevant, is that today is warmer than expected - 26C here.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Harry

[Ben Sainsbury]

Showers/Storms a little more widespread on the UKV 12z run, though CAPE values are marginally less than before.

[Josh Rubio]

I can already see everything developing anywhere east of here. Don’t know why I’m getting excited as it’ll most likely lead to disappointment

[Zak M]

The MetO’s graphics certainly show some thunderstorms breaking out

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Got this awful feeling it’s all heading east  run by run, it’s being slowly watered down. 

Tomorrow’s runs will be crucial, but it’s now getting to the point where it’s on a knife edge. I want to be seeing a big delay in the trough ASAP! 

Isnt like the met office to jinx things is it!! 

Edited May 19, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Zak M]

NetWx-SR is looking good!

[ChannelThunder]

15 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Got this awful feeling it’s all heading east  run by run, it’s being slowly watered down. 

Tomorrow’s runs will be crucial, but it’s now getting to the point where it’s on a knife edge. I want to be seeing a big delay in the trough ASAP! 

Isnt like the met office to jinx things is it!! 

Yes, the GFS 12z continues with this theme. At this rate it's going to be a London-eastwards only affair. I mean, it always looked that way anyway going by how these things usually go, but now the models are backing up that idea

[North Sea Man]

Aw no not more storms

[Eagle Eye]

has anyone else noticed that today's chance has been creeping up

[Eagle Eye]

accuweather hasn't been very reliable just noticed a 40 percent storm chance 

[Mapantz]

Just now, Xanderp009 said:

accuweather hasn't been very reliable just noticed a 40 percent storm chance 

Inaccuweather, you mean?

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

accuweather hasn't been very reliable just noticed a 40 percent storm chance 

as per others posts above, this setup is hard to forecast 2 days beforehand, radar watching on the day is key.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

accuweather hasn't been very reliable just noticed a 40 percent storm chance 

Nothing is reliable 36 hours out

[viking_smb]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Nothing is reliable 36 hours out

yep, totally agree, think xpander just gets excited.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

yep, totally agree, think xpander just gets excited.

Spandex?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

NetWx-SR is looking good!

Hoping we get more cross model agreement later on and into tomorrow. The timing of that trough and how far North the plume engages with it is paramount. It’s a high risk-high reward type scenario this one! 

Edited May 19, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Spandex?

haha

[Zak M]

12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hoping we get more cross model agreement later on and into tomorrow. The timing of that trough and how far North it gets is paramount. It’s a high risk-high reward type scenario this one! 

Yep. It's giving us a headache right now!

The WRF-NMM 12z (the latest to come out) is absolutely pants and has the trough pushed a bit further east meaning that the thundery activity will be further east. The SR looks to be the only model without an eastward shift yet although as we head into tomorrow hopefully the SR still shows this and that all the models will come to agreement. If the trough does end up shifting westwards, along with the decent amount of wind shear, then we could actually get some quite intense storms!

We do have HP dominating again after the quick unsettled spell though with temperatures into the high-twenties once again next week so hopefully that will be enough to produce some corkers if Thursday does turn out to be mediocre!

Edited May 19, 2020 by Zak M

[Harry]

From a purely IMBY perspective the WRF-NMM 12z is pretty good but does represent a vast downgrade sadly.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hoping we get more cross model agreement later on and into tomorrow. The timing of that trough and how far North the plume engages with it is paramount. It’s a high risk-high reward type scenario this one! 

It’s certainly a complicated situation - so for my first storm forecast in a while I decided it would be pertinent to consider what sort of risk a bipedal humanoid looking southwards near Radwell May likely face come 10am on Thursday.

I had to leave out specifics because we still need to nail down the exact detail nearer the time - and the cold front is green because I already used blue for the lightning - but this chart clearly shows that there is an associated risk with this kind of setup.

Also to note the potential cloud cover from earlier elevated activity which is also pictured

[viking_smb]

it's the UK it's always complicated, i'm off thurs but having the car air con recharged at kwik fit, shame no storms in wales otherwise I would of enjoyed watching it whilst i'm waiting. 

[James1979]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Got this awful feeling it’s all heading east  run by run, it’s being slowly watered down. 

Tomorrow’s runs will be crucial, but it’s now getting to the point where it’s on a knife edge. I want to be seeing a big delay in the trough ASAP! 

Isnt like the met office to jinx things is it!! 

Happens almost every time year in year out which is why I cant get excited until it's on my doorstep....that said if you live in Cambridge then its nailed on!!

[Greeny]

4 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Thanks for this link. I use it all the time for the USA and didn’t realise that they had exactly the same for the UK. Brilliant and just what I wanted

I've subscribed as a supporter of Reed Timmer and watch his streams both supporter only and free streams and he uses Pivotal weather in his forecasts and recommends it, I just thought it was for the US so didnt look and thought clicking on the areas on the map you want to see a skew-T was fantastic, now I can do the same which is great and no plotting in CAPE or trying to visualise it in my mind either, great stuff! Thanks for letting us know some functionality is for the UK too.

If anything is in reasonable distance from me, I WILL be chasing, good luck everyone!

Edited May 19, 2020 by Greeny

[Ben Sainsbury]

A positive run by the EURO4 12z and is supportive of the UKV & NMM so far. Initiation looks to take place from around 10am from Reading eastwards.

Despite there being an eastward shift in most of the models it is definitely a positive sign that the higher resolution models of EURO4, NMM and UKV all show thundery activity on Thursday. I think if the AROME also shows a similar scenario once it comes into view then I can definitely have more confidence.

If AROME does come in-line then I'd back EURO4, AROME, NMM & UKV > GFS, ECM, ICON & ARPEGE any day.

EURO4 12z below:

Edited May 19, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Thunder and Lightning]

Sadly looks like the GFS is trending the trough further East... I'm not giving up until the day though, as there is a lot to change and often pattern can completely change within a day or so...