Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[The PIT]

Too far south and west so will miss out as per normal.

[Arnie Pie]

Skies over Brum atm....high altitude sheer

 

 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Arnie Pie

[Cakie]

Rumbles of thunder to the North of Darlington 

[Ryukai]

Just noticed something strange beginning to occur on the radar, almost all the rain patches/storms are moving west to east. but there's now a couple of odd patches (one just north of Birmingham, another to the north of Peterborough) that are beginning to move in a Northerly direction. Is this gonna cause anything interesting to happen?

Edited May 3, 2020 by Ryukai

[Allseasons-Si]

Well...

i think Estofex got the weather right today in terms of storms but i am not knocking Dan's convective forecast though as we all know how hard forecasting storms is.

next weekend looks like the next opportunity but that is light years away. 

 

[Zak M]

Yep, the ECM on Saturday shows some thundery activity for the south. But once again, as @Allseasons-si says above, it's way outside a reliable time frame.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Zak M

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well...

i think Estofex got the weather right today in terms of storms but i am not knocking Dan's convective forecast though as we all know how hard forecasting storms is.

next weekend looks like the next opportunity but that is light years away. 

 

Must remember that ESTOFEX & Dan have different lightning risk criteria. ESTOFEX is 15% within 40km and Dan's 10% within 25km (on this occasion anyway).

Edited May 3, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[viking_smb]

ben, whats the score with tomorrow night then? 

[Ben Sainsbury]

29 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

ben, whats the score with tomorrow night then? 

Very low risk tomorrow night < 5% of any activity inland, a front moving northwards tomorrow night into Tuesday still looks to produce an MCS/Squall Line in the Bay of Biscay but runs until much more stable air due to high pressure across English Channel/Coastal Southern Areas. Could be some great radar/sat/lightning watching for W/NW France but won't really know how far north the convective activity reaches until we get to the time.

Still think there is a 20% chance approx of far SW Cornwall and maybe South Devon a chance of a few distant flashes but unsure as of yet. Bit disappointing really.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[viking_smb]

ok mate, nice one 

[Allseasons-Si]

Imagine if that storm in America was over the UK

i couldn't do anything about the red car,sorry.

[Zak M]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Imagine if that storm in America was over the UK

i couldn't do anything about the red car,sorry.

Look at the size of it on Sat24!

Has to be a MCS surely??! 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Look at the size of it on Sat24!

Has to be a MCS surely??! 

What's that!!!...

Mesoscale Convective Snow

[Allseasons-Si]

Hum..

the SW could see a few flashes later on.

 Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 04 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 05 May 2020

ISSUED 07:03 UTC Mon 04 May 2020

ISSUED BY: null

Residual moisture from an old occlusion over eastern England on Monday morning will drift gradually inland and be subject to convective overturning through the day. Extensive cloud and light rain and drizzle is likely to break up, to then be replaced by a few isolated but locally heavy showers by the afternoon as diurnal heating yields 100-300 J/kg CAPE and low-level convergence aids in forced ascent. On Sunday, a few isolated lightning strikes occurred with ELTs around -16C, by Monday the subsidence inversion will have extended down to ~700mb, meaning convection will be even shallower with ELTs around -8C. This suggests that lightning is very unlikely, and considered a 5% chance in any one location. Once again, profiles will be highly-sheared above the cloud-bearing layer, but due to the shallow nature of convection this sheared environment cannot be utilised. Any showers will fade through the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are expected to erupt over northern Iberia / Bay of Biscay / western France on Monday afternoon, drifting northwards across the Brest peninsula mid/late evening and approaching the Channel Islands / Cornwall around/after midnight. However, the bifurcating steering flow combined with gradually reducing ThetaW suggests lightning activity will weaken as these elevated thunderstorms track northwards, with a transition from initially largely convective rain to more dynamic / frontal rain. A low-end SLGT (30% chance) has been introduced, but even this may be over-estimating the lightning potential.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Ben Sainsbury]

38 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hum..

the SW could see a few flashes later on.

 Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 04 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 05 May 2020

ISSUED 07:03 UTC Mon 04 May 2020

ISSUED BY: null

Residual moisture from an old occlusion over eastern England on Monday morning will drift gradually inland and be subject to convective overturning through the day. Extensive cloud and light rain and drizzle is likely to break up, to then be replaced by a few isolated but locally heavy showers by the afternoon as diurnal heating yields 100-300 J/kg CAPE and low-level convergence aids in forced ascent. On Sunday, a few isolated lightning strikes occurred with ELTs around -16C, by Monday the subsidence inversion will have extended down to ~700mb, meaning convection will be even shallower with ELTs around -8C. This suggests that lightning is very unlikely, and considered a 5% chance in any one location. Once again, profiles will be highly-sheared above the cloud-bearing layer, but due to the shallow nature of convection this sheared environment cannot be utilised. Any showers will fade through the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are expected to erupt over northern Iberia / Bay of Biscay / western France on Monday afternoon, drifting northwards across the Brest peninsula mid/late evening and approaching the Channel Islands / Cornwall around/after midnight. However, the bifurcating steering flow combined with gradually reducing ThetaW suggests lightning activity will weaken as these elevated thunderstorms track northwards, with a transition from initially largely convective rain to more dynamic / frontal rain. A low-end SLGT (30% chance) has been introduced, but even this may be over-estimating the lightning potential.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Yep, Dan's forecast aligns well with my current thoughts.

ESTOFEX forecast link too: http://www.estofex.org/ (Level 2 Issued for W France)

Could be in the sweet spot if you live in Cornwall, UKV has thundery activity even reaching there tonight.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Ben Sainsbury]

Latest UKV run looks beefy that's for sure!

Thunderstorm Advisory Issued by Metcheck:

Metcheck.com - Latest UK Weather Warnings - UK Weather Alerts.

WWW.METCHECK.COM

---

Metcheck.com - Latest UK Weather Warnings - UK Weather Alerts.

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Zak M]

Is there going to be a forecast from Nick?

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zak M

[Ben Sainsbury]

I know this is somewhat more relevant for the European chat but storm initiation over N Spain into the Bay of Biscay taking place an hour or two earlier than expected. Unsure of what this means in regards to later.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Eagle Eye]

lots of rising here looking good

[ChannelThunder]

27 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

lots of rising here looking good

For storms? No chance in Kent, sorry.

[Eagle Eye]

i know that but maybe some showers

[Eagle Eye]

35 minutes ago, lancem said:

For storms? No chance in Kent, sorry.

there is a slight if small 4% chance

[Zak M]

I was bored today and made my own thunderstorm risk map.

Now I am a pro forecaster 

[TheToastPeople]

On 30/04/2020 at 14:21, Zak M said:

Hey @TheToastPeople! D'you hear some thunder?

Hey! sorry for the very slow reply lol! Unfortunately i was asleep all afternoon last thursday so missed it!