Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Cirrus build up Here..... 

Not sure what your scribbles are about but there is such thing as satellite imagery.

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Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com

 

[Eagle Eye]

I didnt mean to do That. 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

It’s almost 10 years to the day (in fact I think it might very well be the day) I did my first and only (to date) USA storm chase with Paul and the Netweather team. It included a High risk chase day through S/C Arkansas (Pine Bluff/Stuttgart), ending in Memphis. It’s more than fair to say US storms piddle our storms into insignificance, but that said I love our Spanish Plumes. Since that holiday, I’ve seen some incredible storms here, with incredibly frequent lightning and impressive structures. There’s something, for me at least, just as exciting in feeling the humidity building, the AcCas appearing and waiting for the first flashes of lightning on the southern skyline that we get with Spanish Plumes. 

As we get into a more traditional slack low dominating pattern in the coming days, I’m hoping we will start to get some traditional April/May thundery showers breaking out, initially on Tuesday but at other times perhaps during the week. 
 

In terms of our first proper plume, a rule of thumb for me is not to expect much until mid-May onwards!

I agree. While I went on my first US chase last year and saw some truly epic end-of-the-world supercells that eclipse anything we get here, there's something just so unique and exciting about our plumes. Like you say, the curtain-raising Ac Cas followed by some of the fantastic MCSs we get forming in the channel and drifting inland are just magic. 

[Rush2019]

46 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Nice little rain shower going on here, I have the windows fully open and am thoroughly enjoying the peace and quiet, the gentle breeze and the earthy scent of petrichor, pity there's no lightning to go with it

Just getting a few blobs of rain now from the cell that moved up from you.  No, no lightning, the only sferics the radio is picking up is my washing machine, been listening to the white noise from it for 2 hours now, time to turn it off, daughter thinks I'm off my rocker.

[Josh Rubio]

Pretty much a bust today. Not one drop of rain here so far today.

[weatherobsuk]

A disappointing end to what could have been, Owestry had 2 strikes earlier from a developing cell but I don't think there's been anything else since then. At least there's the rain this week to get some water on the garden and keep the majority of covidiots from intentionally starting moorland fires.

[Mapantz]

How can it be a bust when the risk was right at the low end of the scale? Most models went for a scattered shower affair, and that's exactly what occurred.

[Mr Frost]

Yes the smell of desperation for a bit of convective weather is very strong in here but I don’t blame anyone! 

I was at risk of an isolated heavy shower today and was checking the radar constantly! 

One drifted past to my North earlier on its last legs and I still got excited! (Took the picture through my window - excuse the camera reflection)

I got a wee fix of thunder and lightning in February so I’m just about okay for now - good old heavy/squally snow showers delivered the goods overhead and nearby. (West Coast of Scotland)

 

 

 

Summer wise June/July is when it goes bang here - can’t wait to see these kind of scenes brewing again. (Summer 2019)

All the best to everyone - looking forward to seeing all the pictures/videos when it all kicks off. (Hopefully May is the month that starts a big storm/convective season for the UK and Ireland)

Cheers.

[Eagle Eye]

Next Tuesday looks like a supercell........................ 

[Paul Sherman]

20 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Next Tuesday looks like a supercell........................ 

Do we need to warn the Authorities I wonder ? 

[Eagle Eye]

Sky looks ready for It. 

[ChannelThunder]

37 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Next Tuesday looks like a supercell........................ 

Can something look like a supercell on a low-res model, 8 days out?

[Eagle Eye]

why can't all showers be like this with lightning these five minute showers will look awesome. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Reading some of these posts it’s almost like there’s some sort of >5% risk of lightning today lol.
 

calm yourself!

• it’s the UK

• it’s April

[Ben Sainsbury]

Looking ahead to next weekend/early next week there appears to be a lot of potential for some strong/severe thunderstorms across Southern areas. Just for a laugh I decided to look at some of the available charts:

Quite extraordinary what the latest GFS run has in store and I must stress this is likely to be changed/watered down.

But for early Monday a large amount of moisture is advected northwards across S UK, 850hpa temps reaching 15'c in the SE which allows 800J/KG of ML CAPE to develop. Followed by 40knts of DLS and very steep lapse rates this is simply all the ingredients required to spawn a few severe elevated thunderstorms. GFS actually hinting at quite a prolific MCS to move NNE across CS England Monday morning.

I better stop myself before I get too excited but for those new, what the GFS is currently showing for next weekend is typically what you require for a severe thunderstorm outbreak. If any of you have any questions then feel free to ask. I'll be keeping an eye on these developments over the coming week.

 

[Cableguy]

Was the stuff over France today supposed to be as active as it is currently?

[Paul Sherman]

Also following on from what Ben has put above, this all comes about due to the record heat being progged for Iberia this weekend and early next week. 36-38c are being forecasted for some parts of Spain and a push north of a Plume of sorts looks likely next Sunday to Tuesday for the Uk. So although we wont see the record heat the transport of High Theta towards the Uk with a trigger out west moving in are the perfect ingrediants.

One to watch and nice and early in the season and one I would have missed had my flight to DFW to Tornado Alley was going ahead (Silver Linings and all that) Add into that the weather looks set fair over in the States on current model outlooks 

You really couldnt make 2020 up really if you tried

[WxHerts]

10 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Looking ahead to next weekend/early next week there appears to be a lot of potential for some strong/severe thunderstorms across Southern areas. Just for a laugh I decided to look at some of the available charts:

Quite extraordinary what the latest GFS run has in store and I must stress this is likely to be changed/watered down.

But for early Monday a large amount of moisture is advected northwards across S UK, 850hpa temps reaching 15'c in the SE which allows 800J/KG of ML CAPE to develop. Followed by 40knts of DLS and very steep lapse rates this is simply all the ingredients required to spawn a few severe elevated thunderstorms. GFS actually hinting at quite a prolific MCS to move NNE across CS England Monday morning.

I better stop myself before I get too excited but for those new, what the GFS is currently showing for next weekend is typically what you require for a severe thunderstorm outbreak. If any of you have any questions then feel free to ask. I'll be keeping an eye on these developments over the coming week.

 

Looks exciting, but doesn't the GFS tend to present these sorts of parameters very often 5-7 days before a plume event (particularly wrt CAPE)? Only for them to be significantly watered down within about 2-3 days before? Fingers crossed no matter what though..

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

8 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Was the stuff over France today supposed to be as active as it is currently?

Yes, and that cell in the north it shows later on today looks interesting there is some shear and vorticity associated with it also has a slight hook appearance of course whether it materialises or not remains to be seen. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, bradleywx said:

Looks exciting, but doesn't the GFS tend to present these sorts of parameters very often 5-7 days before a plume event (particularly wrt CAPE)? Only for them to be significantly watered down within about 2-3 days before? Fingers crossed no matter what though..

GFS are definitely prone to over-blowing CAPE values particularly medium to long range but the CAPE values shown for early next week is nothing extraordinary and is actually supported by the ECMWF with a similar thundery breakdown. So in response I don't think the CAPE values in particular will water down too much it's just a case of whether all the right ingredients come together.

10 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Was the stuff over France today supposed to be as active as it is currently?

The storms do appear to be quite active don't they! Even ESTOFEX have only issued a 15% risk for Northern France. Despite that there are 500-700J/KG of CAPE so it is no surprise that there is a fair bit of electrical activity but probably a little more than expected.

[Zak M]

Looks like the sort of radar returns you would see during an overnight thunderstorm scenario 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Zak M

[Eagle Eye]

weather for midland Kent

Tuesday

1:00:Rain showers cover small parts of Kent .thunderstorm chance 21%

2:00: Rain covers places accross the area , and any lightning activity is off at sea.thunderstorm chane 10%.

3:00:rain.thunderstorm chance 9%

4:00:rain. 10%

5:00:rain. 20%

6:00:rain. 10%

7:00:showers. 9%

08:00:showers. 21%

9:00:sunny and cloudy. 21%

10:00:cloudy. 10%

11:00:rainy. 9%

12:00:rain in spots. 8%

13:00:rain. 7%

14:00:showers. 6%

15:00:stormy showers. 29%

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Looking ahead to next weekend/early next week there appears to be a lot of potential for some strong/severe thunderstorms across Southern areas. Just for a laugh I decided to look at some of the available charts:

Quite extraordinary what the latest GFS run has in store and I must stress this is likely to be changed/watered down.

But for early Monday a large amount of moisture is advected northwards across S UK, 850hpa temps reaching 15'c in the SE which allows 800J/KG of ML CAPE to develop. Followed by 40knts of DLS and very steep lapse rates this is simply all the ingredients required to spawn a few severe elevated thunderstorms. GFS actually hinting at quite a prolific MCS to move NNE across CS England Monday morning.

I better stop myself before I get too excited but for those new, what the GFS is currently showing for next weekend is typically what you require for a severe thunderstorm outbreak. If any of you have any questions then feel free to ask. I'll be keeping an eye on these developments over the coming week.

 

Seeing as it's nearly 2 years since I've seen lightning,  I'll take that hope even this far out

[Eagle Eye]

is this the area of Rain..... 

[viking_smb]

8 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

is this the area of Rain..... 

the lightning is associated with a trough, (if you care to look at the met office surface pressure charts) which is moving away from us