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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

It’s pretty much all died off for me around these parts now... But good luck to everyone else for today. :oldgood:

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Well well Latest WRF  runs have continually upgraded tomorrow’s potential across NW England, now showing 800 J/KG cape and LI of -4. Showing precipitation breaking out so looks really good. Let’s see.

Had a distant rumble of thunder yesterday evening so counting that as the  first thunder day of the year. Would be great to have the second one so soon.

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Well well Latest WRF  runs have continually upgraded tomorrow’s potential across NW England, now showing 800 J/KG cape and LI of -4. Showing precipitation breaking out so looks really good. Let’s see.

Had a distant rumble of thunder yesterday evening so counting that as the  first thunder day of the year. Would be great to have the second one so soon.

Hiya @Chris.R :oldsmile:

Thats encouraging news... Let’s hope something kicks off tomorrow. ?️:oldgood:

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

Further to my last post, I’ve just taken the dog out for a walk, and I clocked these structures to my south. But they do look like they’re decaying around the bottom to middle part. 
As I said earlier, it’s game over for me today, but good luck to everyone else, and fingers crossed for tomorrow. ?️:oldsmile:

CE4D889B-A56F-4CA4-8F24-0D4CA3D1CA79.jpeg

035C63F9-A4C4-49F9-9C30-766621773278.jpeg

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

^ yeah latest wrf 2km slightly lessened my supercell perspective but still has some intense storms with the biggest cell across wales also some cells breaking out across east anglia, latest euro 4 still showing those individual cells with hail cores a possibility later in the evening it could all develop into a line but it is the individual cells that hold the most interest IMO 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

I really hope the storms tomorrow will start off in the SE.

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mike57 Seasoned

mike57

Posted
  • Location: Bempton, Bridlington, East Riding. 78m ASL
  • Location: Bempton, Bridlington, East Riding. 78m ASL
Posted
2 hours ago, Aiden2012 said:

Some nice towers towards the seafront way in Bridlington east yorks, might have to take a walk haha. IMG_20200411_164337.thumb.jpg.5b6d91afd266fe3896f55c31d449bf20.jpg

Unfortunately now a clear sky in Bempton, saw them earlier when we had our walk

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

At least if it doesn’t go pop tonight the cap will keep the energy in place for some fun tomorrow ??

I was hoping for that, too.
 

Will probably cool off somewhat by the time we reach mid-morning tomo - so we would have to start all over again, but I think there’s more unstable air to beef things up.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I was hoping for that, too.
 

Will probably cool off somewhat by the time we reach mid-morning tomo - so we would have to start all over again, but I think there’s more unstable air to beef things up.

Yep. The capping was too strong today in many places. 

Tomorrow it does look as if it will be weaker as pressure will be lower. A stagnated front should be able to erode it even more so across the midlands and into Lincolnshire/EA. 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yep. The capping was too strong today in many places. 

Tomorrow it does look as if it will be weaker as pressure will be lower. A stagnated front should be able to erode it even more so across the midlands and into Lincolnshire/EA. 

Does Bedfordshire have a chance of seeing storms tomorrow?

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

What's happening SE of Brummy!

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

What's happening SE of Brummy!

Seen that too, got my camera out just in case.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
21 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Does Bedfordshire have a chance of seeing storms tomorrow?

Yes definitely. Hard to pin point exactly where they could or will break out. But tomorrow looks like there will be more widespread activity. Many hi-res models (Euro-4, Arpege, Hirlam, WRF, and the Icon EU) are going for a line of storms breaking out around the Home Counties and Suffolk stretching towards Wales heading slowly N’wards, and then pretty much grinding to a halt during the late evening. Winds will also be light and variable at times in direction. So funnel clouds could well form also if there is clashing of different air masses in the storms. 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Lightning now in that Birmingham cell.

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Jeffers146 Apprentice

Jeffers146

Posted
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Heat
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln
Posted

Any chance of some storms in Lincoln tomorrow?

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Ooooh, some raining pepping up near Northampton and Milton Keynes. Interesting.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Ooooh, some raining pepping up near Northampton and Milton Keynes. Interesting.

Have you got your cam ready?

there might be a storm heading your way.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

@East_England_Stormchaser91,you might see a storm too.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Have you got your cam ready?

there might be a storm heading your way.

Yep

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@East_England_Stormchaser91,you might see a storm too.

Was going to say! A series of cells have got going all of a sudden. Euro 4 called this and modelled a rogue cell or two lasting into the night. Hats off to it. Looks to be on the money here 

Tomorrow I will be up and ready from the word go! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

A few charts from the UKV:

viewimage.thumb.png.5f4e619eb98052a9697baeeb59badc00.png 1580806963_viewimage(1).thumb.png.c28e472feb19099932b0c59c5a175c56.png1630918482_viewimage(2).thumb.png.0dc9ed1ef04303c31e08fe15c59ec6b1.png

1791083199_viewimage(7).thumb.png.76399d4a131f7480e32caeced7699f68.png 562048756_viewimage(8).thumb.png.e7524af88d2bb705e158327a93ff609e.png 1628687245_viewimage(9).thumb.png.cc8750a30222d18952830c97f07f5a33.png

  

896311677_viewimage(3).thumb.png.394d680902dd166a792f2005b31311de.png 46177844_viewimage(4).thumb.png.bd1d2807fbce6412d3c785976181fd54.png 222108256_viewimage(5).thumb.png.7ef18da791ebaba45e4a9a71844f5762.png 1613174169_viewimage(6).thumb.png.f6ef86ccd789133ff6f0f9076f346258.png

Shear is relatively weak so nothing organised - more pulse-type showers/storms.

There's plenty of convergence zones forecast to develop, so showers could pop up in many places and may continue in to the evening. Cloud could be an inhibitor for some as well, so watch the skies and keep an eye on the radar.

 

Edited by Mapantz
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Lightning now to the SE of Leicester.

I'm going to get my camera back out but I don't think I will catch anything as there is a shower right on top of me blocking the way.

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TheToastPeople Enthusiast

TheToastPeople

Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Lightning now to the SE of Leicester.

I'm going to get my camera back out but I don't think I will catch anything as there is a shower right on top of me blocking the way.

Just watching that shower over you, Is any rain falling? Im right on the edge of it according to the radar 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

Just watching that shower over you, Is any rain falling? Im right on the edge of it according to the radar 

Not yet. Did you get any rain? If not, then these are probably elevated showers.

Edit: They are not elevated! Just had a drop

Edited by Zak M
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TheToastPeople Enthusiast

TheToastPeople

Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not yet. Did you get any rain? If not, then these are probably elevated showers.

Nope nothing yet, I fear you are correct. Oh well this has me more confident about tomorrow's chances! 

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