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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    6 hours ago, B87 said:

    Those analogue years are absolutely horrifying.

    Heathrow average maxes

    1974: J 20.1c, J, 20.9c, A 21.5c

    1980: J 19.8c, J 19.7c, A 21.9c

    1988: J 19.7c, J 20.0c, A 21.8c

    2007: J 21.2c, J 21.4c, A 21.5c

    A bunch of analogues that have 2007 as the best outcome don't bear thinking about!

    A 25% chance of an average June, a 100% chance of a significantly below average July and August.

    I think calling an average maximum of 21C "horrifying" is a bit of an exageration!  That temperature is perfectly usable and rather pleasant.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    5 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Does anyone actually get analogue forecasts right...on a regular basis?

    Although i maintain their validity as a probability tool, no.

    The pace of the switch to La Nina complicates matters given that atmospheric coupling takes time but if we assume that one will occur and that we will at least get negative ENSO values by Q2/Q3 following a +ENSO (neutral or weak) Q1 then we get 1954 as probably the two analogue.

    1954 followed the weak multi year nino of 51-53

    1970 just misses out at a 1.1 peak but it did follow the multi year nino of 68-69

    1995 just misses out also at a 1.1 peak but did follow a generally warm-weak multi year 90-94 Nino. 

    2005 i don't like for two reasons, one the first Nino peak was too strong at 1.3 but two the Nina was a rare sandwich and then we got a weak 06 Nino which was essentially just part of a single 02-06 event

    2007 i'm dubious on because it only works if you count 05/06 as genuine singular events. If not then the preceding 02-06 event was too strong.

    ..

    Looking at the set the signal is for..

    A average/cool May that ends up quite unsettled - looks wrong so far but 1970 had a hot, settled may

    A warm to hot June with blocking to north east of the UK

    An abysmal July (3 of the 5 analogues are no higher than 15.2C)

    An average to cool August. 

     

    Our hopes would seem to rest on 1995 with 54, 95 and 07 being the settled April's.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    27 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

    I think calling an average maximum of 21C "horrifying" is a bit of an exageration!  That temperature is perfectly usable and rather pleasant.

    21c is ok in June, but 21c in July or August almost always means cloudy and wet (being 2-3c below average). Even 22c in July or August would be considered rather poor here, unless the month was significantly sunnier than average.

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    9 hours ago, B87 said:

     

    A 25% chance of an average June, a 100% chance of a significantly below average July and August.

    How can you give those probablitlies based on just 4 years? And how can you give a 100% chance for a monthly forecast? You can't, no one can. 

     

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    How can you give those probablitlies based on just 4 years? And how can you give a 100% chance for a monthly forecast? You can't, no one can. 

     

    I was basing it just off of those 4 analogue years. None of them had anything approaching a normal July or August, and only one had an average June.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Although i maintain their validity as a probability tool, no.

    The pace of the switch to La Nina complicates matters given that atmospheric coupling takes time but if we assume that one will occur and that we will at least get negative ENSO values by Q2/Q3 following a +ENSO (neutral or weak) Q1 then we get 1954 as probably the two analogue.

    1954 followed the weak multi year nino of 51-53

    1970 just misses out at a 1.1 peak but it did follow the multi year nino of 68-69

    1995 just misses out also at a 1.1 peak but did follow a generally warm-weak multi year 90-94 Nino. 

    2005 i don't like for two reasons, one the first Nino peak was too strong at 1.3 but two the Nina was a rare sandwich and then we got a weak 06 Nino which was essentially just part of a single 02-06 event

    2007 i'm dubious on because it only works if you count 05/06 as genuine singular events. If not then the preceding 02-06 event was too strong.

    ..

    Looking at the set the signal is for..

    A average/cool May that ends up quite unsettled - looks wrong so far but 1970 had a hot, settled may

    A warm to hot June with blocking to north east of the UK

    An abysmal July (3 of the 5 analogues are no higher than 15.2C)

    An average to cool August. 

     

    Our hopes would seem to rest on 1995 with 54, 95 and 07 being the settled April's.

    June 95 though was very cool until the latter third when it became very warm/hot. May 95 brought see-saw weather with a warm shot early on, not far off what is about to happen now but not on the same scale, followed by cold weather mid month, we have that forecast for 10-12th. Latter part of May 95 brought a warm up of sorts.

    Once again are we about to see a year when our most settled fine weather occurs outside of the peak summer holiday period mid July onwards.. we've had 7 weeks of predominantly fine weather the likelihood of such conditions prevailing all the way through until end August becomes less likely as we move through the summer thanks to energy becoming more and more injected into the atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
    On 06/05/2020 at 19:24, B87 said:

    21c is ok in June, but 21c in July or August almost always means cloudy and wet (being 2-3c below average). Even 22c in July or August would be considered rather poor here, unless the month was significantly sunnier than average.

    I would be happy with 21.C/22.C regularly in the summer. I’m in one of the very few areas in Scotland where maximum temperatures in July reach 20.C on average. I’m lucky to maybe reach 24.C on average about 7/8 times a year. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    22 minutes ago, Harry233 said:

    I would be happy with 21.C/22.C regularly in the summer. I’m in one of the very few areas in Scotland where maximum temperatures in July reach 20.C on average. I’m lucky to maybe reach 24.C on average about 7/8 times a year. ?

    21-22c regularly for you in July, would be regular 25-26c for us. I get 30 days of 25c+ in a normal year.

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Hoping for Spanish plumes of dry sunny and thundery weather lol.

    I'm going for summer to become more unsettled from mid July onwards with work from the state of enso.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    My summer forecast is rather close to normal conditions this year. If any trend emerges it would likely be towards the warm/dry combination by the second half of the season and I do see more definite signs of a warm autumn than summer so that warmth may linger. But in general I would look for the summer to be relatively close to long-term averages with the usual slight tendency to warmth in this recent interval, so will punt for CET values like 14.5, 17.0 and 17.2 for the three months, 15 for September, and rainfalls of 20% above normal in June, near normal in July and 20% below in August. There will probably be one heat wave of any consequence and the most likely time for it is late July into the first half of August (not saying it would last that long, just its timing most likely in that stretch). Probably at least an average summer for thunderstorm activity in the UK, and possibly a bit above average in terms of numbers of storms and intensity levels. That may turn out to be the highlight of summer 2020, one or two decent thunderstorm outbreaks and my preferred timing on those would be around end of June into first week of July. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    I'm actually hoping for a cool summer which usually means more interaction from the Atlantic or a high pressure system displaced westwards, usually not all bad news as we generally see some more convective activity...the chances of this summer being cooler than average, pretty slim to be fair.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

    I'm actually hoping for a cool summer which usually means more interaction from the Atlantic or a high pressure system displaced westwards, usually not all bad news as we generally see some more convective activity...the chances of this summer being cooler than average, pretty slim to be fair.

    There’s no way of telling how this summer will pan out, even during May. 
     

    We could see a cooler summer this year, so never say it’s not possible.
     

    A cold winter will happen again, even with a warming trend. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    We could see a cooler summer this year, so never say it’s not possible.

    Didn't say it's not possible did I? just said the likelihood of being cool was slim - I know where my money would go.

    And yes correct on a cold winter happening again...

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Didn't say it's not possible did I? just said the likelihood of being cool was slim - I know where my money would go.

    And yes correct on a cold winter happening again...

    My concern is, if we end up with a cooler summer, it will more than likely, but not necessarily lead to a colder winter. 

    If winter 20/21 ends up being a cold one, it could be bad timing, if there’s a potential second wave of the virus. But, let’s see how summer pans out. 
     

    Hopefully some hot days and thunderstorms mixed in. I’m going for a thundery June. 

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    I think the importance of La Nina is being overstated - I looked back at augusts which had La Nina and there are actually some of the hottest in there.

    1955, 1975, 1995, 2016 were all La Nina and recorded very warm augusts. 

    On balance 1956, 1988, 1998, 2010 were all poor and La Nina

    Overall I think it has very little impact directly on UK summer weather. SST seems the more important indicator this year

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

    I think the importance of La Nina is being overstated - I looked back at augusts which had La Nina and there are actually some of the hottest in there.

    1955, 1975, 1995, 2016 were all La Nina and recorded very warm augusts. 

    On balance 1956, 1988, 1998, 2010 were all poor and La Nina

    Overall I think it has very little impact directly on UK summer weather. SST seems the more important indicator this year

    Your correct that it's not hard and fast however if we look at years which saw a La Nina develop by years end (First year Nina's - we shall ignore whether they came from neutral or flipped from nino to nino and the strength of the event and the exact time they developed to broaden the field) then looking at July, August and September we get the following from 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016 

    July below 15.7C - 6

    July above 17.7C - 2

    July 15.8-17.6C - 4

    August below 15.4C - 4

    August above 17.4C - 1

    August 15.5-17.3C - 7

    September below 13C - 1

    September above 15C - 2

    September 13.1-14.9C - 9

     

    So working backwards we can see a strong signal for probably no lingering heat. Average Septembers are the norm with 05 and 16 being the exceptions, 2016 was a flip while 2005 was a slow flip, both did not record -ONI values before Q3 though so it's more likely the first year Nina signal for September is on the cool side of average the faster you go (in those years i guess the atmosphere coupled late).

    In August we see that again the signal is cool or close to average bar 1995 (again not recording -ONI values until Q3, like 2005 a slow flip) though obviously the feel of the month may not be bad. Aug 16 was dull but a bit warm and humid for example. Essentially 16, 95 and 83 sit in one camp (83 was a quick flip but did not until Q4 did it record three consecutive negative values) while the rest are 16.5C or below. It would appear the poor August anecdote from this sample is deserved on balance.

    As for July 3 of our last 4 years on this list have been 16.9C or above so we have done quite well but the historical record is not terribly good at least since 1950. It is worth saying that 2007 is our spoiler in the 05-16 period here and that was a quick flip recording -ONI values in Q2.

    .

    Much too early to draw conclusions but it is worth saying that without a rebound we are looking at a quick flip event recording -ONI values for AMJ onwards (i.e. Q2). That would tend to push us towards 1954, 1964, 1973 and 2007 which all flipped quickly with only 1-5 months between +0.5 and -0.5.  

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    My predictions

    June to start off quite warm and dry for many, especially the south (the south is mostly best in summer for proper heat and warmth). This will be one of only perhaps 2 or 3 notable hot and dry spells

    July and August may tend to be more average, specifically rainfall wise

    I think these days a bad summer is one that's wet, a good one is one that's dry. A colder than average summer seems very unlikely but never say never. It seems in this day and age all we need is a slight little nudge from HP to the south for very hot uppers to bake over the country and give us 25'C+

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather
  • Location: West Midlands

    My predictions for Summer 2020:

    The first half of June will be a continuation of the dry and warm weather we've been experiencing, whereas the weather will begin to deteriorate around the middle of the month and the latter half will be mainly unsettled.

    Early July will be unsettled with things calming down just after the first week. The rest of July will be around average with temperatures in the late 20s on a couple of days here and there, particularly towards the end of the month.

    Early August will see the hottest day of the year, with temperatures reaching low to mid 30s in one or two places. After around the 10th, temperatures and rainfall will be around average for the time of year whilst becoming more unsettled in the latter third of the month.
     

    So a mixed bag summer really. 

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Location: Plymouth

    I am hoping for a decent summer here in the SW!  I would like a summer like 2018 but if we could have some evening thunderstorms with frequent lightning then all will be good from the weather Gods!  
     

    Seems to be good weather for the last 2 months! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Perhaps La Niña is becoming more of an unknown in our ever warming climate. It’s been so warm over the last 10-20 years it must be hard to even know what sort of impacts we can expect in these unprecedented times. Just seems to be whatever the background signals are it just ends up warm nearly every time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Perhaps La Niña is becoming more of an unknown in our ever warming climate. It’s been so warm over the last 10-20 years it must be hard to even know what sort of impacts we can expect in these unprecedented times. Just seems to be whatever the background signals are it just ends up warm nearly every time.

    Is that the case? Of the 4 Q3 offical La Nina's since 2005 (07, 10, 11, 16) three of those 4 were cooler than average (and i suspect wetter). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    The trusty accuweather forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

    The trusty accuweather forecast.

    And nonsense as usual. Stormy here suggests a westerly dominated summer - not exactly a pattern which suggests a warm summer in Sweden and hot over Belgium, Netherlands etc. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
    6 minutes ago, reef said:

    And nonsense as usual. Stormy here suggests a westerly dominated summer - not exactly a pattern which suggests a warm summer in Sweden and hot over Belgium, Netherlands etc. 

    Looks pretty accurate to me. 

    A euro high dominated summer.

    Warm dry spells in south east uk but an unsettled damp summer from midland northwards.The odd 30c day in SE but not many. Not especially wet. Limited thundery activity. Benelux countries again will have most of the action. 

    Early onset of autumn, eapecially northern england and Scotland. 

    The pattern we are in at the moment has to change sometime and as is often the case, just in time for summer. 

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