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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    I don't think London has ever seen 300 hours of sun in July, that seems to be reserved for the south coast areas.

    London has only ever seen 1 month record more than 300 hours of sun - May 1989 with 310 hours.

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    OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

    Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

    This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    8 hours ago, B87 said:

    Average temperatures would be great. Something like 2001 or 2005 would still be an alright summer.

    No thanks. Those early 2000s summers were pretty dreary from memory. 2005 gave us a rotten July, but a decent August, although it felt chilly at the start.

    2001 had a nice May, but the later summer wasn’t great. 
     

    I would say another 2014 would be good, but swapping the warm September for a warm August instead. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

    I saw a newspaper article recently drawing comparisons between this April and 2007, and most of us will remember the floods of that summer. I'm not into predictions but I suspect there will be many who will not wish to see a repeat of 2007, notably those who have still not been able to return to their homes after the floods of early 2020 (remember them?), and will probably not be able to return for some time to come. Some contributors have talked of the lockdown ending by June. Hmmm! I suspect that some politicians will be hoping that this summer is a cold washout, with sleet and snow helping to keep people off the streets and out of trouble. And that is a purely personal, non-political view!    

    Shouldn't pattern match, but this April has been very akin to April 2007, equally as warm, dry and sunny. It also came on the back of a very mild and wet winter, same as this year. It marked a shift in conditions that had been preety dry Spring 05 - autumn 06. The April was a bit of an anomaly in this respect, as it was followed by a very wet few months, exceptionally so in the middle of summer.

    Comments about early 00's summers - they were a very mixed affair, 2000 was preety average temp wise, no real sustained warmth or dry weather from memory, one of those not very memorable ones, 01 was better with a fair bit of sunny dry warm weather at times, 02 was preety poor, consistently dull with lots of rain and limited dry lengthy spells though temps were not too chilly, 03 was very warm with the major heat arriving in early August, 04 was also very good temp wise, though wetter, lots of thundery downpours but also alot of dry sunny weather.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    11 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    No thanks. Those early 2000s summers were pretty dreary from memory. 2005 gave us a rotten July, but a decent August, although it felt chilly at the start.

    2001 had a nice May, but the later summer wasn’t great. 
     

    I would say another 2014 would be good, but swapping the warm September for a warm August instead. 

    I wouldn’t say July 2005 was a rotten month.  Not a classic, but far from awful!  July 2001 wasn’t bad either.  August 2008, now that really was rotten!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    July 2005 had roughly average sunshine with slightly below average temps. It was better than July 2000, 2002 or 2004.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Shouldn't pattern match, but this April has been very akin to April 2007, equally as warm, dry and sunny. It also came on the back of a very mild and wet winter, same as this year. It marked a shift in conditions that had been preety dry Spring 05 - autumn 06. The April was a bit of an anomaly in this respect, as it was followed by a very wet few months, exceptionally so in the middle of summer.

    Comments about early 00's summers - they were a very mixed affair, 2000 was preety average temp wise, no real sustained warmth or dry weather from memory, one of those not very memorable ones, 01 was better with a fair bit of sunny dry warm weather at times, 02 was preety poor, consistently dull with lots of rain and limited dry lengthy spells though temps were not too chilly, 03 was very warm with the major heat arriving in early August, 04 was also very good temp wise, though wetter, lots of thundery downpours but also alot of dry sunny weather.

     

    The summer of 2004 is overrated as it has gone from the memory. July was actually extremely poor and August was about as humid a month as you could get.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    The summer of 2004 is overrated as it has gone from the memory. July was actually extremely poor and August was about as humid a month as you could get.

    Yes becoming a bit of a distant memory now, it wasn't too bad though compared to a number of other summers in the 98-12 period, one of the better ones against a large number of average or often very poor ones, only 2003 and 2006 I would rank as very good in that period, the likes of 99, 01, 04 and 05 next category, the others a bit below par 2000, 2009, 2010 or very below par 1998, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012.

    Conversely we've done very well since 13, no summer since then I would put in the below par category, 2013 and 2018 rank in the very good category, 2014, 2016, 2019 in the decent category, 2015 and 2017 average category.

     

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    9 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

    I saw a newspaper article recently drawing comparisons between this April and 2007, and most of us will remember the floods of that summer. I'm not into predictions but I suspect there will be many who will not wish to see a repeat of 2007, notably those who have still not been able to return to their homes after the floods of early 2020 (remember them?), and will probably not be able to return for some time to come. Some contributors have talked of the lockdown ending by June. Hmmm! I suspect that some politicians will be hoping that this summer is a cold washout, with sleet and snow helping to keep people off the streets and out of trouble. And that is a purely personal, non-political view!    

    Yes this April does compare to 2007 but the Winter of 2006/7?? Wasnt that one the warmest on record and nowhere near as wet compared to the winter 2019/20??  

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands

    I just hope it isn't as warm as last summer or summer 2018.  Something pretty average with no extreme heat would be nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    hopes, to be off lockdown, predictions, we won't be, pubs, clubs bars etc to open Xmas 2021, all sporting events in 2021 to be cancelled

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes becoming a bit of a distant memory now, it wasn't too bad though compared to a number of other summers in the 98-12 period, one of the better ones against a large number of average or often very poor ones, only 2003 and 2006 I would rank as very good in that period, the likes of 99, 01, 04 and 05 next category, the others a bit below par 2000, 2009, 2010 or very below par 1998, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012.

    Summer 2002 was warmer and sunnier than summer 2000. 575.8 hours and mean of 17.6c for 2002, 555.6 hrs and mean 17.5c for 2000.

    Both poor.

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    The summer of 2004 is overrated as it has gone from the memory. July was actually extremely poor and August was about as humid a month as you could get.

    The best period of that extended warm period, in Bristol at least, was 13th May to 18th June. Hardly a drop of rain and very sunny. 21st June to 15th July was then very disappointing! 16th July to 12th August was a very humid time with plentiful sunny periods, the hottest weekend of the year coinciding with the Bristol Harbour festival (1st August), then it was storms storms storms! 

    I’d put it at an exact half way point between the dire 2002 and wonderful 2003. 2005 goes half way between 2003 and 2004 for me, mainly for the cool weather in the first half of June and naff last week of July. August was consistently nice here though without ever getting excessively hot.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I thought I had mis-read the title of the thread, but no it is, summer 2020 predictions, although many of the recent ones seem more interested in discussing previous summers!

     

    I suppose the best very general guide is to look at the Met Office 2-4 month model outputs?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    59 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    I thought I had mis-read the title of the thread, but no it is, summer 2020 predictions, although many of the recent ones seem more interested in discussing previous summers!

     

    I suppose the best very general guide is to look at the Met Office 2-4 month model outputs?

    I still think we will have a warmer and drier than average June, but a cool and wet July and August, with August being particularly bad, 2008 bad.

    Before the talk of La Nina, I was predicting a warm June and August with a cool July, like a drier version of 2004.

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    So, I've posted my predictions. Now my hopes for the rest of year, with summer bold.

    May 1989, June 1976, July 2018, August 1995, September 1949, October 2011, November 1994, December 2015.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    19 minutes ago, B87 said:

    So, I've posted my predictions. Now my hopes for the rest of year, with summer bold.

    May 1989, June 1976, July 2018, August 1995, September 1949, October 2011, November 1994, December 2015.

    I'm with you on those preferences haha...clearly a warm fan. I'd probably swap May 1989 for May 2018 though. May 2018 was incredibly sunny in these parts and so consistently warm. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Yes a May 2018 with the thunderstorms of 2017 and 2016 would be grand!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    I'm with you on those preferences haha...clearly a warm fan. I'd probably swap May 1989 for May 2018 though. May 2018 was incredibly sunny in these parts and so consistently warm. 

    May 1989 was the sunniest month on record at Heathrow. All summer precipitation could come in the form of a few of those late May 2018 storm cells though!

    I consider a summer extremely poor if the grass isn't brown by July. In 2012 it didn't happen until August. In 2007 it didn't happen at all!

    November 1994 will make up for that precip deficit, but Dec 2015 was very cloudy but dry in London.

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    56 minutes ago, B87 said:

    So, I've posted my predictions. Now my hopes for the rest of year, with summer bold.

    May 1989, June 1976, July 2018, August 1995, September 1949, October 2011, November 1994, December 2015.

    If i were to ignore what i expect and go for the ideal then.

    May 2018, June 2006, July 2011, August 2014, September 2017, October 2016, November 2005, December 2010.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    This is what I think will really happen.

    May 1984/80, with a dry sunny warm spell, but also damp and cool periods like both those years.

    June 2018, with one or two days where it becomes cooler, before turning hot again.

    July 2017, warm first half, with storms, poor second half.

    August 1987

    September 2014

    October 2010

    November 2009

    December will be a return to the colder variety like 2008, 2009,2010, but sunny and cold like 2001.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    That summer just seems like 2017. June 2017 was as warm as June 2018, July was average, August was dreadful.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Looking ahead to summer and for the ENSO it looks like the best matches could be 1980 and 2005. They were both at the end of +ENSO events which got a second wind in 1979 and 2004 respectively just as we will likely have had a technical Nino in the winter gone.

    The composite signal from those two years suggest reasonable confidence on a warmer and settled April (check) and a cooler but probably not wet May (trough over Scandi, block over Greenland), the signal breaks down at a CET level for June and July (2005 went warm, 1980 cool) but does then suggest a cool and dry August followed by a warmer September and signal for strong vortex reformation.

    I should say that we only have those two because Q1 periods that were +ENSO or weak Nino actually tend to be followed by Q2 periods which either gun for the Nino or collapse to negative values much more quickly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    59 minutes ago, B87 said:

    May 1989 was the sunniest month on record at Heathrow. All summer precipitation could come in the form of a few of those late May 2018 storm cells though!

    I consider a summer extremely poor if the grass isn't brown by July. In 2012 it didn't happen until August. In 2007 it didn't happen at all!

    November 1994 will make up for that precip deficit, but Dec 2015 was very cloudy but dry in London.

    For me May 2018 pips 1989 because of the consistently high maximum temperatures- May 89 had a lot more cool days below 15C here looking at the records. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, I for one will not be making any three-month predictions...But the heat is really building northward toward Southern Europe:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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