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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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I’ll play devils advocate here, by predicting it won’t top 30c or reach anything higher than that for the whole of summer 2020. 30c next week, then maybe another hot spell in late July or early August.

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OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

Posted Images

Yes indeed. Looking increasingly likely it will be a very brief hot spell focused mostly on the south and east. Unsettled mostly, from midlands northwards. Cooler for all next weekend and beyond. 

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I just want a decent thunderstorm, similar to late May 2018 or Friday 21st August 1987, or June 1994, when storms arrived in the late evening, while still light, but rumbled oh into the night, or overnight storms. 
 

London has missed out so far on a proper storm.

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On 13/06/2020 at 08:12, Scorcher said:

 

4 hours ago, qwertyK said:

I am now convinced that 2020 will overtake 2016 as the warmest year on record. Would this be the first year that isn't an el nino to do that? I remember we had a continuous period - 2014, 2015, and 2016 were all the warmest years on record

If your talking globally it’s possible although starting with Enso positive and allowing a lag means it’s only half not Niño.

If your talking the UK it’s not the case.

 

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14 hours ago, jules216 said:

Increddibly by the end of next week I might be the only region in Europe that has not seen any for of sustained heat yet appart from about 3 scattered days that seen over 27C past months. The upper level trough parks exactly over me when the rest of Europe gets  high pressure and heat.This is getting riddiculous now. The excessive rain last weeks had brough flash floooding conditions yesterday, well over 150mm of rain in many stations since early June. 

104845491_2645629705703742_5897161769468
M.FACEBOOK.COM

Pichne, voda proste berie všetko...

 

ECM1-120.gif

Tell me about it. It stayed below 17C here today and we've had nearly an inch of rain (still going). A few days ago the nearby Morava River had already burst its banks; this will only make things worse.

Since about the middle of May the weather has been very disappointing indeed. Cool and unsettled with only the occasional bit of genuine warmth here and there (rather than vice-versa, which is the norm here). May came in below-average and June will almost certainly end up the same. It's also looking increasingly likely that Bratislava will enter July without having recorded 30C so far this year - that is simply shocking for this location.

We've gone from an almost non-existent winter to an almost non-existent summer - a terrible combination for those like me who like continental variation.

What an annus horribilis 2020 has been so far. I dearly hope the second half of the year sees a vast improvement!

Edited by AderynCoch
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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

A rather presumptuous statement, given we're only halfway through the year, I think??

I was talking about 2014-2016, we are obviously highly ranked to date this year.

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2 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

Tell me about it. It stayed below 17C here today and we've had nearly an inch of rain (still going). A few days ago the nearby Morava River had already burst its banks; this will only make things worse.

Since about the middle of May the weather has been very disappointing indeed. Cool and unsettled with only the occasional bit of genuine warmth here and there (rather than vice-versa, which is the norm here). May came in below-average and June will almost certainly end up the same. It's also looking increasingly likely that Bratislava will enter July without having recorded 30C so far this year - that is simply shocking for this location.

We've gone from an almost non-existent winter to an almost non-existent summer - a terrible combination for those like me who like continental variation.

What an annus horribilis 2020 has been so far. I dearly hope the second half of the year sees a vast improvement!

Have you seen this? You couldnt make it up if you wanted to. I am on 120mm this month with more to come.

ECM1-96.gif

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That chart pretty much sums up the past month or so.

It's still raining here. I'm on 46mm since yesterday, nearly all of which has fallen in the last 12 hours. Pernek (only 10-15 miles from here) has had nearly 70mm in the same time frame.

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The thundery episode has distracted from the fact, it hasn't  been a great June so far at least around here.

 

Not really great in many places. Any month where ppn is miles above normal usually points to a poor month. Not always, but usually.

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5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Last evening on BBC 2, they showed highlights of the Old Trafford Test, Eng v WI in 1995. This Test took place just as the great heatwave was starting. That brought back memories of that great summer.

 

Take me back to 1995 now, very happy memories. The start of a 2 month long heatwave bar the odd wet patch in July. A summer not bettered since, 2018 started in May but came to an abrupt end in late July. 2003 came too late and was shorter. 2006 finished too early.

Edited by damianslaw
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14 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Weather already a downgrade from what was being forecasted earlier. Now just one day with a high of 28C. This "heatwave" will be over before it's even started 

Aye, think models underestimating the Atlantic, coming up to 2 of the 5 most Atlantic dominated months of the year, July and Aug, other 3 of course, Dec, Jan and Feb

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Sunshine levels this June much down on those of April and May relative to average I imagine. As others have said, there is now a resurgent Atlantic compared to last 3 months, fairly typical at this juncture in the year. 

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Relatively happy with my summer thoughts a few weeks back (July being cool and unsettled).

Despite June coming out warm it has been largely cyclonic even with the coming week although blocking has been present over Scandinavia as suggested. My forecast suggested that the signal for July was for the trough to be over the UK (and the Bearing Sea) indicative of a low GLAAM signature. GLAAM forecast originally suggested that it would bottom out on the 13th, it is now still forecast to be below -1 as we enter July on the Euro (though the forecast remains for an eventual bounce). GWO and MJO outlook has changed accordingly. Surge in easterlies over the Tropical Pacific are now forecast which will likely enhance this signal.

SOI is still neutral and reflecting the fact that 3.4 has been bouncing around the neutral-negative zone but both the sub-surface and those easterlies are probably going to start knocking that back down (1.2 is already below -1) so i'm not too concerned. The Met Office also seem to back the signal too (or did a week or so ago). 

We may get some tropical activity in the Atlantic during the first half of July which may provide some amplification of the Azores High closer to our domain however i'm content to back my belief and expect the second half to become generally worse. 

 

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9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Relatively happy with my summer thoughts a few weeks back (July being cool and unsettled).

Despite June coming out warm it has been largely cyclonic even with the coming week although blocking has been present over Scandinavia as suggested. My forecast suggested that the signal for July was for the trough to be over the UK (and the Bearing Sea) indicative of a low GLAAM signature. GLAAM forecast originally suggested that it would bottom out on the 13th, it is now still forecast to be below -1 as we enter July on the Euro (though the forecast remains for an eventual bounce). GWO and MJO outlook has changed accordingly. Surge in easterlies over the Tropical Pacific are now forecast which will likely enhance this signal.

SOI is still neutral and reflecting the fact that 3.4 has been bouncing around the neutral-negative zone but both the sub-surface and those easterlies are probably going to start knocking that back down (1.2 is already below -1) so i'm not too concerned. The Met Office also seem to back the signal too (or did a week or so ago). 

We may get some tropical activity in the Atlantic during the first half of July which may provide some amplification of the Azores High closer to our domain however i'm content to back my belief and expect the second half to become generally worse. 

 

So by that token, this summer won't even have been front loaded. Rather... never loaded!

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