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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

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2 minutes ago, B87 said:

This is what WO is currently showing.

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

London weather forecast 14 days - Rain risk - Wind direction - HDD CDD

This month seems to be turning out similar to June 2017.

Is this site accurate though? None of the other sites (met office, timeanddate, accuweather, bbc weather channel etc) are forecasting temps that high or prolonged. GFS is only showing one day with a temp of 31C - and thats on sunday - although all the other websites seems to be showing sunday will be one of the cooler days.

I feel like a lot of this year has been similar to 2017. I remember april was pretty warm. winter was average, mild at times 18C in feb. Hopefully we will continue to see months that mirror those of 2017 - beast from the east? at the very least a colder winter than this year! Shouldn't be hard actually...

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23 hours ago, Scorcher said:

If only we could have a stagnant area of hot air stuck over us like that...I guess that's one of the joys of a continental location, even that far north. I'm sure the residents of Verkhoyansk are appreciating it after getting through another brutal winter.

Are they? You call it a brutal winter but is it brutal to them?  If you were born and raise there, you would think you would become use to it and know how to adapt to it. How do you think Inuits survive? I would have thought extreme heat is more of a shock to them. Would an Inuit be enjoying or appreciate 30C, if they are not use to it? 

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Just now, Weather-history said:

Are they? You call it a brutal winter but is it brutal to them?  If you were born and raise there, you would think you would become use to it and know how to adapt to it. How do you think Inuits survive? I would have thought extreme heat is more of a shock to them. Would an Inuit be enjoying or appreciate 30C, if they are not use to it? 

Exactly my point. Harsh winters every year. Heatwaves? No. Glorifying unseasonably warm weather has to stop. It has deadly consequences. 

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13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Are they? You call it a brutal winter but is it brutal to them?  If you were born and raise there, you would think you would become use to it and know how to adapt to it. How do you think Inuits survive? I would have thought extreme heat is more of a shock to them. Would an Inuit be enjoying or appreciate 30C, if they are not use to it? 

Pretty sure any human body doesn't adapt easily to temperatures of -50C. Even these people in Siberia would survive far longer without clothes or shelter in temperatures of 35C than they would in -50C. Regardless of what you're used to, that's just human biology.

Inuits only survive by adapting to the environment through clothing etc- even they wouldn't survive long with full exposure to the cold. They might be uncomfortable in 30C but it wouldn't kill them nearly as quickly.

Nonetheless I'm sure it feels hotter to them than it would to people in warmer parts of the world.

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18 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Is this site accurate though? None of the other sites (met office, timeanddate, accuweather, bbc weather channel etc) are forecasting temps that high or prolonged. GFS is only showing one day with a temp of 31C - and thats on sunday - although all the other websites seems to be showing sunday will be one of the cooler days.

I feel like a lot of this year has been similar to 2017. I remember april was pretty warm. winter was average, mild at times 18C in feb. Hopefully we will continue to see months that mirror those of 2017 - beast from the east? at the very least a colder winter than this year! Shouldn't be hard actually...

I find them to be more accurate than the BBC or weather.com, and on par with the Met Office. Accuweather are by far the worst forecasting site I have ever seen. GFS always underestimates temps during heatwaves.

A sunnier July 2017 would be acceptable, but August that year was dreadful. I'm hoping more August 1995 or 2003 this year.

Edited by B87
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2 minutes ago, B87 said:

I find them to be more accurate than the BBC or weather.com, and on par with the Met Office. Accuweather are by far the worst forecasting site I have ever seen. GFS always underestimates temps during heatwaves.

A sunnier July 2017 would be acceptable, but August that year was dreadful. I'm hoping more August 1995 or 2003 this year.

Yep accuweather is terrible, never known them to get it right. 

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What a garbage month this is. Looking at my weather records so far today is the 14th overcast day of the month! Ridiculous. Next week's "heatwave" of course will be cancelled like last June's, which I recall was actually below-average most days.

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Just now, Thundershine said:

What a garbage month this is. Looking at my weather records so far today is the 14th overcast day of the month! Ridiculous. Next week's "heatwave" of course will be cancelled like last June's, which I recall was actually below-average most days.

What happened to last junes? As said I think at most we will get 30C for a day or two. And such extremes will only be in and around London. East anglia which is usually the hottest place (outside london anyway) is actualy looking a little cooler. 

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1 minute ago, qwertyK said:

What happened to last junes? As said I think at most we will get 30C for a day or two. And such extremes will only be in and around London. East anglia which is usually the hottest place (outside london anyway) is actualy looking a little cooler. 

Up here we had a strong undercutting NE'y wind which saw below avg. max temps and even heavy rain during that week. Then one joker "hot" day before it was all over.

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8 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

What happened to last junes? As said I think at most we will get 30C for a day or two. And such extremes will only be in and around London. East anglia which is usually the hottest place (outside london anyway) is actualy looking a little cooler. 

Last June was actually quite well forecast, it's just that most people never bothered to ask why the pressure chart was showing an easterly and the upper charts were showing a southerly. Essentially the lower undercut in a divergent flow meant that we had the summer equivalent of a surface inversion.

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Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk didn't join in with the peak of June 2019's briefly hot spell, but did join in from the start of the July 2019 heatwave. See screenshots attached.

Is there any reason why those counties didn't see more of the hottest temps last June? I remember they were forecast to but didn't. It was frustrating but we only had to wait a few weeks for that record-breaking heat.

Annotation 2020-06-19 115949.png

Annotation 2020-06-19 120745.png

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2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Last June was actually quite well forecast, it's just that most people never bothered to ask why the pressure chart was showing an easterly and the upper charts were showing a southerly. Essentially the lower undercut in a divergent flow meant that we had the summer equivalent of a surface inversion.

I think you've answered my question which I coincidentally posted at the same!

Is this forecast to happen again for next week?

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2 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk didn't join in with the peak of June 2019's briefly hot spell, but did join in from the start of the July 2019 heatwave. See screenshots attached.

Is there any reason why those counties didn't see more of the hottest temps last June? I remember they were forecast to but didn't. It was frustrating but we only had to wait a few weeks for that record-breaking heat.

Annotation 2020-06-19 115949.png

Annotation 2020-06-19 120745.png

They look pretty hot to me I'm not sure what your expecting

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2 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk didn't join in with the peak of June 2019's briefly hot spell, but did join in from the start of the July 2019 heatwave. See screenshots attached.

Is there any reason why those counties didn't see more of the hottest temps last June? I remember they were forecast to but didn't. It was frustrating but we only had to wait a few weeks for that record-breaking heat.

Annotation 2020-06-19 115949.png

Annotation 2020-06-19 120745.png

I can't remember June but I remember July here was damn hot. 38C, in fact th ehighest ever temp was 38.7 in Cambridge. We were hotter than in London, and I went out to Norfolk in August and I remember we had temps in the low 30s for a few days.  I recall june being really hot but I think I was confusing it with france which had a heatwave in june and july. June last year wasn't as warm as I remembered. 

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2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I can't remember June but I remember July here was damn hot. 38C, in fact th ehighest ever temp was 38.7 in Cambridge. We were hotter than in London, and I went out to Norfolk in August and I remember we had temps in the low 30s for a few days.  I recall june being really hot but I think I was confusing it with france which had a heatwave in june and july. June last year wasn't as warm as I remembered. 

I live in Cambridge - that 38.7 here came about as we avoided the cloud until after 4pm which allowed the ultra high temps to peak here. Usual spots like Heathrow and Northolt clouded over early afternoon, otherwise I’m almost sure 39.something would have been recorded.

Edited by mb018538
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14 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

I think you've answered my question which I coincidentally posted at the same!

Is this forecast to happen again for next week?

No. Last year was a relatively extreme example and the worst one usually gets is a SE and SW flow at different levels so you never notice it on the ground.

The flow is more or less convergent this week albeit it's a relatively bog standard hot spell anyway.

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30 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

They look pretty hot to me I'm not sure what your expecting

The point I was making is that in the June hot spell, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk peaked at 26-29C while areas west got into the low 30s. This is unusual. In July, the more usual thing happened where Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk also tapped into the low 30s. You can clearly see the difference on the maps.

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16 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

Hoping the heat being modeled next week actually comes off. The hotter, the better. ☀️?

I actually don't at all mind hot weather, even as hot as 30 celsius plus. Just as long as it's in moderation and at the right times of the year. A good thunderstorm after a few days of hot weather is a great refreshing way to cool down too. 

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5 hours ago, qwertyK said:

UK is no longer a wet and rainy country - 

TELEMMGLPICT000002035804_trans_NvBQzQNjv
WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

New Love Water campaign calls on Brits to save increasingly precious resource

 

I am not so sure about that. Yes, we have had an unusually dry spring which dragged on and in 2018 a very dry summer, but those sort of events have always been happening here and there. Only a few months ago we have had the wettest February on record. If not the whole autumn/winter period. Our weather is very changeable, so we could quite easily go back to having a long wet spell dragging on for a couple of months at anytime.

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