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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

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27 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

 

I really hate living in Manchester!!! What a waste of a good heatwave when its not widespread.  It will be 17 odd years before the next one. 

The south can keep it - where it belongs! It's going to be warm & muggy in Greater Manchester.....especially tomorrow but thankfully a world away from the temperatures the SE will endure. 

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Weird to think that even today, which was cloudy until mid-afternoon, reached a temperature higher than what some summers managed in the past.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Is there any convenient list somewhere with the highest temperatures ever recorded in the UK? Most ive found are outdated, or only containing a few days. Presuming the current Heathrow forecast of 36c+ for 5 days by the Met actually happened, makes me wonder how many days may be within the top 10 of all time, and potentially even in a row.

Edited by Porto
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If I was to guess where this forecast was located, I would guess Florida.

Instead, it's located in stained glass windowing Heathrow. :shok:

BBC Weather 6.png

Edited by Zak M
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Yet again I wonder why if 35C heat can get from the Sahara to SE England unimpeded, it finds it so damn difficult to reach other parts of Britain? Back in the 80s/90s these "record breaking" spells would typically be low 30s and sunny over most parts of England and Wales, sometimes even into Scotland and Ireland, with London maybe 2-3 C warmer than round here. Now the sky is the limit in Londonland while it is often 8-10C cooler here, as much as 15-20C cooler further north, and it very rarely stays sunny if it isn't just cloudy to begin with. This SE versus everywhere else divide is just getting bigger and bigger, I first really noticed it happening around the early 2000s. I thought it had got silly around 10 years ago, but this summer it's been like Egypt versus Norway. Is it just my perception or is the SE really getting hotter and sunnier in summer at the expense of everywhere else. And if so, why?

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3 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Yet again I wonder why if 35C heat can get from the Sahara to SE England unimpeded, it finds it so damn difficult to reach other parts of Britain? Back in the 80s/90s these "record breaking" spells would typically be low 30s and sunny over most parts of England and Wales, sometimes even into Scotland and Ireland, with London maybe 2-3 C warmer than round here. Now the sky is the limit in Londonland while it is often 8-10C cooler here, as much as 15-20C cooler further north, and it very rarely stays sunny if it isn't just cloudy to begin with. This SE versus everywhere else divide is just getting bigger and bigger, I first really noticed it happening around the early 2000s. I thought it had got silly around 10 years ago, but this summer it's been like Egypt versus Norway. Is it just my perception or is the SE really getting hotter and sunnier in summer at the expense of everywhere else. And if so, why?

In Leeds we managed 34C just a week ago during the one-day plume event. Last year we managed 35C during the late July heatwave. In fact, in the 5 years since 2015 we have exceeded 90F more times than the preceding 20 years.

And yet we’ll be lucky to reach 30C even once during this ‘heatwave’. It’s confusing because looking at the charts you’d expect hot weather extensively and yet that’s not the case. Strange.

Edited by cheese
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I agree with both of you. I find it bizarre that we'll get close to 30C today but struggle to get to 23-24C on Sunday. I can't see how a NE breeze that's got to travel 100 miles inland is going to make that much of a difference.

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Here we go, "Furnace Friday" and this is what the sky looks like here facing NW and SE. The edge of that mass of cloud over N Wales/NW England very sharply defined in one direction, completely clear in the other. If the latter prevails during the day we might just be in with a chance of 30C, if the former does it'll be 25C tops, probably not even that. With a SSE airflow logically it should be the weather to the SE that wins but I know from experience that isn't always the case....

IMG_20200807_070114.jpg

IMG_20200807_070338.jpg

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5 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Now showing 38’C for Heathrow tomorrow.

BC945282-2BFE-454E-9C70-1325D87ACCFB.jpeg

IF we stay clear of convective cloud the record attempt is definitely on tomorrow. It may yet be on today though IMO I don't think there is enough juice in the tank for that.

As for the SE/NW divide, my best guess is that is a result of AGW helping to pump up the Hadley cells which means the south is more and more often under a subtropical type regime when southerly flows become established. Because the belt is further north more often due to a more contracted arctic ice cap in summer, its allowing SE England to increasingly tap into that continental airflow. Whilst the north is still in more traditional British air more often than not.

Its worth noting the classic British weather is still dominant, its just we have a greater chance in the SE when we import those quick hitters of reaching the types of temperatures previously only possible from established 5-7 day heatwaves.

Edited by kold weather
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That area of cloud might just scrape past to the west of London, or if it does come over then it looks quite patchy at the moment.

Heathrow currently 22°C at 8:20AM vs. 24°C last Friday.. as a few have said, the record high temps seem unattainable today. Met Office suggesting small chance of 38°C though. 

 

Edited by Stabilo19
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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

On furnace Friday I currently have more rain (not forecasted) and temp of 12 degrees.

Miserable. 

Put the kettle on I’ll be there in a few hours lol 

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14 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

That area of cloud might just scrape past to the west of London, or if it does come over then it looks quite patchy at the moment.

Heathrow currently 22°C at 8:20AM vs. 24°C last Friday.. as a few have said, the record high temps seem unattainable today. Met Office suggesting small chance of 38°C though. 

 

I suspect it probably will, its matching 00z AROME pretty much perfectly at the moment so no reason to think that the AROME forecast isn't right. This run limits temperatures to around 34-35c for most (maybe a touch higher for somewhere like Heathrow) due to the convective over spill coming into the region from 1-2pm onwards.

As for what happens tomorrow, hard to say at the moment. In theory the conditions aloft should be even more favorable for heat given a much higher base to start with, however how much convection is still lingering around/forms is going to make tomorrow something of a nowcast. Maxes from 33-38c seem possible.

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Going to be a touch and go call on whether that convective mass over SW develops further and spreads its cloud canopy. That will probably determine to a large extent exactly how extreme we go in terms of heat.

We are a little down on where we were on Friday, but the difference this time is the upper heat isn't decreasing at all over the course of the day, if anything it slightly increases which means in a clear situation we'd probably keep the heat up longer than you'd expect which would make the difference up of a cooler start. However that really all does rest on the skies being clear enough to take full advantage of that.

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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Hmmm....one or two people last weekend saying this wouldn't be as hot as last Friday and predicting 31-32c for today/coming weekend. Me thinks they are off the mark!

Depends where they are. I think 36 max potentially 37. It looks like there may be some cloud now which may help prevent it getting any warmer 

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2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Depends where they are. I think 36 max potentially 37. It looks like there may be some cloud now which may help prevent it getting any warmer 

Nope! referring to the max temperatures...which is largely towards the south east, this always look like being hot, but how hot we will see.

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10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Hmmm....one or two people last weekend saying this wouldn't be as hot as last Friday and predicting 31-32c for today/coming weekend. Me thinks they are off the mark!

Trouble is initial forecasts for heat seem to upgrade more and more as the period gets nearer!  Wish it was the same for cold spells during winter!

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Don't understand why people are shocked at this hot spell. Climate change is to blame. The southeast gets hot because it's got the closest to a continental climate and is influenced by the heat from nearby Europe. 40C will probably be a regular occurrence (every 5 years or so) in the south by the end of the century. 

 

Imagine if the temperature record does go (unlikely but still a chance). Took sixteen years for the 2003 to be broken, just literally barely a year for the second 

Edited by qwertyK
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