Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It probably won't in my opinion, and I'm sorry to say this, I see good summer weather to come but mainly in early part of summer, but I think it will go downhill from (my best estimate) mid July, as La Niña potentially takes hold and AAM drops, and SSTs are no longer sufficient to promote ridging  where we need it.  So my message is, if you like to be outdoors in hot sunny weather, do it now locally, if you wait until you can travel, the good weather might have gone by then.

Agree completely and I suspect this broadstroke prognosis will be close to the mark.

We avoided the washout summer prognosis I think- by virtue of a slow demise of the strat vortex, rather than a short sharp warming. This was the main sticking point for me with regards to whether we'd see some summer this year or have the early part written off.

Though kudos to yourself, you did say you thought it would be a slow vortex demise rather than a quick one!

Edited May 16, 2020 by CreweCold

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The mean is a blink and you will miss it affair.. Looks good before, and after, enjoy the rest of your evenings... I'm off to water the Garden..

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean T144, showing clearly the unsettled blip, and T240 when all is well again, well as well as it can be....

The unsettled blip is going to happen, but it will be short.  Thereafter summer weather building from the south.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just incase you haven't viewed em, here are the ens.. Not a bad set, especially regarding the pressure rises after a brief decline. 

[Kentspur]

49 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It probably won't in my opinion, and I'm sorry to say this, I see good summer weather to come but mainly in early part of summer, but I think it will go downhill from (my best estimate) mid July, as La Niña potentially takes hold and AAM drops, and SSTs are no longer sufficient to promote ridging  where we need it.  So my message is, if you like to be outdoors in hot sunny weather, do it now locally, if you wait until you can travel, the good weather might have gone by then.

Looking forward to.my 2 weeks annual leave in June August is def my least favourite summer months feels like autumns round the corner and usually everywhere is way too busy I always book leave in June or July or September. Typically just as the kids break up from school the weathers gone to pot normally. Hope you're all right with the warm dry June predictions. Longest days better oomph to the sun. ECM looking promising still towards months end although a bit of a warm outlier 

Edited May 16, 2020 by Kentspur

[Mike Poole]

Into the night now, not that time means anything anymore....ICON 12z T126 v 18z T120

Stronger heights (colours not contours) on the 18z, still a possibility this unsettled incursion will amount to little more than a breeze and some drizzle for most....on to the zoom run, but not for me, too many beers already!  

 

Edited May 16, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

GFS 18z continues to edge away from anything but a blip of a breakdown.

[shaky]

22 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 18z continues to edge away from anything but a blip of a breakdown.

Yup an improvement on the 18z!hopefully more improvements on the 00zs!

[Daniel*]

56 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 18z continues to edge away from anything but a blip of a breakdown.

Hm well there’s some ridging more in S/E, out in cuckoo land I know beyond T192 but higher pressure over Greenland keeping U.K. on cool side of jet unsettled for north. Not a good run really.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Daniel*

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hm well there’s some ridging more in S/E, out in cuckoo land I know beyond T192 but higher pressure over Greenland keeping U.K. on cool side of jet unsettled for north. Not a good run really.

Yes pretty poor. High can't seem to ridge enough north after next weekend. Still way to go yet. All can change. 

[Frosty.]

Following the unseasonably cool spell in recent times, a big change to much warmer and sunny conditions for most of the week ahead and then signs of a thundery breakdown from the west towards the end of the week but a summery feeling week for the majority, only the very far north being the exception. Looking towards the end of May the Gfs 0z operational looks rather good with even a potential plume before another thundery breakdown.

 

 

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS 00Z looks to keep us on the eastern side of the Atlantic trough, pretty much throughout the run, with even the chance of a 30C day for the far SE of England...?

    

    

    

    

    

    

And the GEFS ensembles:

    

    

So, temperatures look set to hold up well enough, though the continued paucity of rain spikes is getting a tad worrying...

[Djdazzle]

All models seek to rebuild high pressure after the blip, but with lots of variation in terms of location and strength. Generally, the further south and east you are, the better..

[carinthian]

Latest Icon run produces a robust build in high pressure back again over the British Isles for next Sunday ( below ) I will keep this chart and compare this time next week in real time just out of interest. This run also indicated less impact of the Atlantic intrusion compared to the other models and has the low pressure systems deflecting towards Iceland.

C

[mb018538]

 

Here’s the rather wonderful ECM pressure ensemble - the mean is now at 1030mb at day 8! Not often we see that....looks great. Enjoy the sun!

[tight isobar]

Signs continue to *weaken* for Atlantic inroads...and again any incur looks shortlived at best...

The ens firing up the quickly back to high pressure domination!

And for fun im going solid  on 30c..to be breached between 27=30 may...southern England.

Ops and ens likely aligning further or both recurrence and heat sourcing...with the remaining wetter =cooler threat though for the more northern. Especially north western geographical points...

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, this is indeed very good in terms of high pressure longer term, especially further south...in the meantime, enjoy the increasing warmth and sunshine during the coming days, the warmest day of the season so far may be recorded somewhere in the s / se during this upcoming period!..so good it appears I’ve shown a few charts twice!..been drinking champagne..hiccup..bit early I know, I’m not an alcoholic ..honest guv!

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Djdazzle]

GFS continues (not surprisingly) to be the flattest option after the initial mini-breakdown by blowing up low pressure to a far greater extent than the other models. Looking like Thursday will be the hottest day this week with high twenties, possibly nudging 30. Westerly incursion on Fri / Sat, not a washout by any means and always more settled further south. Still massive uncertainly after that, but most models try to rebuild HP in one form or another.

[Zak M]

I'll take this from the GFS on day 12 

   

[Methuselah]

Well, dang me, Billy-Bob; it mightn't reach thirty but it might go out with a bang...Yes Siree, Bob!

    

Gaaaad bless America!

PS: Can one suffer from a vitamin-D overdose!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 6z mean is by and large taking that low pressure towards the Iceland vicinity, and it looks like a stronger build of pressure quickly builds shortly afterwards. So in a nutshell perhaps a tad more unsettled, and thus more likely towards the W/NW and even this is not a certainly.. Its looking pretty good I would have though for area SE of this..

[Djdazzle]

Pretty good GFS 6z mean too. Much more settled compared to the op.

[Man With Beard]

Quite a difference with the handling of the incoming trough on the ECM clusters. The op cluster the most pessimistic and not in the majority. Less settled for most but not a done deal in the SE just yet. 

Likely to see a strong ridge to our south by D10. Probably settled, then, and reasonably warm again, though I guess a risk of the jet running lows into the north.

The ridge probably retreats back to the south-west by the end of May, possibly still influential for the UK but might allow a trough to the east and a more north or north-westerly influence. 

[Methuselah]

Well, the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles continue to hold-up quite well; surface temps largely between 15 and 20C. Not bad for late Spring?

    

Having said that, the last three days of the op do look a tad scary!

[shaky]

Yuk at the latest icon 12z at 120 hours!!!cool westerly winds!!lets see if pressure builds in behind it!!