Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[mb018538]

Won’t be much different then - August has been very sketchy compared with June and July the last 15-20 years. I’m not buying into analogies too much at this point. I’ve seen numerous posts and thoughts earlier in May saying mid-late May would be poor and unsettled. Looks likely to be more the opposite dominating.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is little to suggest that this will be a sustained dry summer but more evidence to suggest that there is a risk summer deteriorates as we progress. I think people like Singularity have pointed this out and reading between the lines, I think Tamara is suggesting the best of summer may well come more immediately than later into the season. 

In the mean time there is plenty of very useable weather to be had between spells of slightly more unsettled conditions.

I think with the ever changing climate we are now encountering it's increasingly difficult to make any kind of long term call. But I would hazard a guess at warmer summers and less cold winters, and I'm a real lover of Winter and it's kind of disappointing from my perspective crewe. I'm happy with just warm and plenty of settled Conditions, I'm not the biggest lover of blast furnace type conditions. But I really do hope its at least usable mate.. Travel abroad as gone to the wall, plenty of folks would have been saving for there dream Holidays this year, and it would be kind of nice if we could at least get the weather to make having a short break at home all worth the while. I'm certainly not going to make a call for a 3 month period at this stage, the models struggle with  a 7 day period... Let alone a 90 day one. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

Well that was short but intense, ECM T144 and T168:

And if it follows the others, should be a swift return to high pressure regime?  

[Zak M]

Interesting!

[Mike Poole]

Absolutely, T192

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well that was short but intense, ECM T144 and T168:

And if it follows the others, should be a swift return to high pressure regime?  

Hopefully your right and I think you are , The Navgem has a high re asserting itself towards the end of the run so we can take it as gospel it will happen now .

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is little to suggest that this will be a sustained dry summer but more evidence to suggest that there is a risk summer deteriorates as we progress. I think people like Singularity have pointed this out and reading between the lines, I think Tamara is suggesting the best of summer may well come more immediately than later into the season. 

In the mean time there is plenty of very useable weather to be had between spells of slightly more unsettled conditions.

I would agree with that synopsis, Crewe...But, taking long-term statistics at face-value, the vast majority of summers end up relatively close to average (who gives a sheet about a degree-or-so ether way!) anyway. Extremes like 1972 and 2018 tend to be few and far between...

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

I would agree with that synopsis, Crewe...But, taking long-term statistics at face-value, the vast majority of summers end up relatively close to average (who gives a sheet about a degree-or-so ether way!) anyway. Extremes like 1972 and 2018 tend to be few and far between...

What happened in 1972 Pete?  I was 1 so can't remember

[Djdazzle]

If the trends on the 12z continue, there may be hardly any breakdown on the 00z runs.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

What happened in 1972 Pete?  I was 1 so can't remember

It was cold!

[Zak M]

216 is very good for the south!

[Mark wheeler]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Absolutely, T192

If this happens I will be crying for joy .

[Mike Poole]

I thought this might happen, T216:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Very good signs after a minor blip.. Away from the far NW it looking pretty spiffing. 

And finally day 10.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Mattwolves

[mb018538]

ECM looking really good again. Only 2 days briefly unsettled before it turns warmer and settled again. What a spring.

[Mike Poole]

Massive reload potential on T240:

[Singularity]

   

So, a new direction of travel has emerged for Fri-Sun... sort of. It's actually what a few GFS runs suggested Thu-Fri! Yet that's the one model not following that path now - funny how it goes sometimes (or seemingly quite often these days!).

Majority vote is now for a weak disturbance to move through swiftly Thu-Fri before high pressure builds back across from the southwest, having been displaced from the Azores.

I'd be happy with that. Maybe a bit short on rain for the gardens and agriculture unless some downpours manage to develop Thu-Fri... but I dare not complain as the summer season approaches .

[Mike Poole]

Just as another confirmation of the trend we are seeing today, of a short sharp unsettled spell interrupting otherwise fine and settled weather, here's the JMA 12z take to T192:

I think most of us who like summer will take that, and the offerings of the earlier models tonight.  We have, it seems, now a clear direction of travel, rather than the uncertainty of the last few days.  

Roll on summer 2020, may need to invest in some beer cooling device for outdoor activities as the pubs are shut!  

Edited May 16, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

Let’s hope we can get some of them open in August - although Sod’s law says it will be unsettled!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

To be fair to @damianslaw, he does try to justify his views.

Aye, Damian one of most knowledgeable members

Edited May 16, 2020 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Let’s hope we can get some of them open in August - although Sod’s law says it will be unsettled!

Sod's law and La Niña and just the tendency for Augusts to be rubbish, conspire against you mate!, don't think there's a scientific index for that last one, but if there was it's been negative since 2003.

[Djdazzle]

You know my thoughts on background signals! Winter 18/19 . .

Slightly off topic, but August may see restrictions on travel in the U.K. lifted somewhat. We need the weather to play ball!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

You know my thoughts on background signals! Winter 18/19 . .

Slightly off topic, but August may see restrictions on travel in the U.K. lifted somewhat. We need the weather to play ball!

It probably won't in my opinion, and I'm sorry to say this, I see good summer weather to come but mainly in early part of summer, but I think it will go downhill from (my best estimate) mid July, as La Niña potentially takes hold and AAM drops, and SSTs are no longer sufficient to promote ridging  where we need it.  So my message is, if you like to be outdoors in hot sunny weather, do it now locally, if you wait until you can travel, the good weather might have gone by then.

[Djdazzle]

It would be good for someone knowledgeable to come up with examples of good summers when La Niña was a factor.

[Djdazzle]

ECM mean looks pretty good too.