Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Huge scatter in there.

There sure is. Met office still fancy settled And dry weather to hold on. They must be going well against the GFS, which wants to bring in some rain:

Lots of scatter as you say, and that tropical system (which looks like being a very early named storm) near Florida is playing havoc too. 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z operational has a very warm happy ending for the south and subsequently more of the u k would join in...whatever happens, following the northerly winds and below average temps, winds are switching more towards the southwest and it’s warming up  with tropical air bringing low to mid 20’s c next week. Looking at the GEFS 0z mean in the mid / longer term, much better than the op, much more settled / benign looking.
 

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Scorcher]

The only thing I care about right now is getting rid of this nagging cold air- very frustrating how long it's lingered. Next week is going to be warm, no doubt about it now- just a question of how warm and how sunny.

[Guest]

I think its fair to say none of the models have exactly covered themselves in glory during the last 48hours, big swings, massive outliers, hot, cold or unsettled. Feels like an uneventful blended average of them all seems a decent bet. A gradual warming through the next five days to low, maybe 25C then a gradual nibbling way of high pressure and temperatures from the Atlantic into the BH weekend. I certainly don't think its going to a brutal Atlantic assault, just a poorly timed blip before I fancy high pressure reasserting itself again.

[Man With Beard]

Although there's still uncertainty about how the trough to our SW will interact with the pattern next weekend, the models have now firmed up on a reasonably warm week coming up next week, with Tuesday to Thursday, IMO, likely to see maximum temperatures exceeding 25C at times, and possibly up to 27-28C by the end of the week if the incoming trough is delayed. Not really possible to call whether there will be a continuation of the warmth beyond that, but it's possible.

[Zak M]

Hmmm... what's that making its way up from the continent on day 11?! 

   

[mb018538]

Clusters at 192 hours show the Atlantic trying its best to push through. Next Friday possibly the last of the widely settled days before some sort of breakdown. Still the chance of something more settled hanging on.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 6z looks like bringing in a breakdown and more unsettled come the end of next week.. Signs thereafter that pressure is building to the South with the more unsettled conditions being pegged to the NW.. not sure where this will fit within the mean and ens, but we will know very shortly.. I'm not overly stressed at the moment. 

[Djdazzle]

Every op run is now producing wildly different outcomes. The uncertainly seems to start from around T120.

Think @Singularity alluded to this being caused by the models having difficulty with a tropical storm. It seems like tiny differences in modelling are having huge impacts later on in how things turn out.

Expecting again that the GFS 6z will be an outlier! It seems that the op runs being outliers happens during times of greater uncertainty.

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters now favour some sort of breakdown for north and west areas next weekend but I'd say this is still an emerging picture - conditions for the south-east in the balance (EDIT: @mb018538 you beat me to it   )

Further ahead, little in the way of unsettled weather, but the largest cluster could bring a nagging north or east influence if a trough towards scandinavia develops. Still heatwave options open - cluster 3 could be very hot.

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm not overly stressed at the moment.

Me neither mate, it’s still only spring and the models show a general warm up, extent still unclear but a much nicer week next week than this week for sure..for the majority!

Edited May 15, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Djdazzle]

GFS 6z T216 op

And mean for T216

suggests that the op has gone off on one!

[shaky]

The op has gone off on a serious outlier here!!typical gfs!!mean and control also look seriously dry for a long time!!expect the gfs to fall in line later!!maybe some upgrades one ecm as well!!

[StormChaseUK]

Was always going to be a trade off, the Atlantic lows are great for drawing up southern warmth (if they get stuck) but once  they become more mobile then inevitably we get the westerly pattern. 

Still all this change is 5-6 days out yet, could all change again :S

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

The op has gone off on a serious outlier here!!typical gfs!!mean and control also look seriously dry for a long time!!expect the gfs to fall in line later!!maybe some upgrades one ecm as well!!

At T240, you wouldn't believe that the op and mean were even from the same run!

[shaky]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

At T240, you wouldn't believe that the op and mean were even from the same run!

Its ridiculous!!where are the days where we actually saw a little bit of consistency at the very least from ecm or gfs!!!seems to have disappeared last few years!!!i still go with the ecm over gfs any day!!!seems to be right more often than not!! 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its ridiculous!!where are the days where we actually saw a little bit of consistency at the very least from ecm or gfs!!!seems to have disappeared last few years!!!i still go with the ecm over gfs any day!!!seems to be right more often than not!! 

Agreed, op outliers do seem more common than they used to be.

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Agreed, op outliers do seem more common than they used to be.

I seem to remember they kept churning out outliers during the winter. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well the op can hopefully go and do what the coronavirus will do.... And take a running jump... Its a much better mean folks..

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Guest]

Wow that's a stonker of an outlier, if the Ops run was in the pack I think we'd all be pretty happy. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Guest

[shaky]

The means actually looks like its taking the ukmo route at 144 hours and disrupting the trough in the atlantic and sending it waay south through france and spain therefore extending the warm and dry weather!

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Wow that's a stonker of an outlier, if the Ops run was in the pack I think we'd all be pretty happy. 

One of the biggest outliers I've seen for a long time!

[mb018538]

Quite interesting that about half of the ensembles keep pressure high. I thought that it’d be a smaller number.....we’re no clearer to where the path leads us.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is a cracker..don’t believe me.. go and look!..it’s predominantly benign with plenty of Azores influence, I also sense a buckling jet in the future.ps..out of reactions again, pathetic I know!

Edited May 15, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Djdazzle]

Please, please, please - can we have some consistency on the 12z runs!

Good that the GEFS 6z mean is solid in terms of HP, and the ECM 00z op was a great run (although an outlier towards the end).