Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Allseasons-Si]

Watch that heat over Portugal/Spain,it's a lot warmer than the 12z,can we tap into it? 

[Singularity]

GFS 18z much more in line with ECM 12z for the trough across Scandinavia, but still not digging the Atlantic trough down as far or sharply.

How it pans out will give us some indication as to the relative importance of the two troughs.

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Watch that heat over Portugal/Spain,it's a lot warmer than the 12z,can we tap into it? 

Nope

the virtual pub run looks like being on the rocks.

[Singularity]

The Atlantic trough shape and associated degree of disruption proves most important - as usual, really.

GFS has a habit of keeping troughs too ‘clean’ and ‘rounded’ outside of about +120 hours range... but on the other hand, ECM can be a bit too enthusiastic and ready to ‘trap’ cut-off lows more than briefly.

This being a big part of why the actual outcome tends to be somewhere between the two.

[Djdazzle]

GFS overplaying the Atlantic again. Move on!

[Zak M]

The GFS 18z = 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The GFS 18z = 

I certainly will not lose any sleep over it,the gfs always play's catch up but with the lack of data you will never know

has the ECM got more data than the GFS?

open to discussion... 

[joggs]

Typical gfs..... . Latch on down the line.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Another reload of the Azores high advecting towards us

And it's going to be real hot

Edited May 13, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Maybe if this hot spell is just short lived. (Ain't a cue) we will have plenty other opportunities according to the gfs FI. Azores looks angry. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Maybe if this hot spell is just short lived. (Ain't a cue) we will have plenty other opportunities according to the gfs FI. Azores looks angry. 

Will look at the ens before making my mind up about the gfs pub run. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs 18z couldn't be more poles apart from it's 12z

the data is getting model fatigue 

[CheesepuffScott]

Despite next week on GFS 18z not being on par with the latest ECM run.. plenty of pleasant weather in the extended with HP exerting itself. Very dry out into FI with most places England + Wales seeing no more than 20mm, less than 10mm across the south. Wetter for NI and Scotland.

[Daniel*]

36 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I certainly will not lose any sleep over it,the gfs always play's catch up but with the lack of data you will never know

has the ECM got more data than the GFS?

open to discussion... 

As said it is all down to Atlantic lows GFS keeps main low intact, doesn’t send off a cut off low which digs to our SW - I’m not sure why you are assuming ECM which was on extreme end, is right? What GFS shows is more plausible really. I wouldn’t say any model has best idea ECM has been rather inconsistent. 

[Daniel*]

40 minutes ago, joggs said:

Typical gfs..... . Latch on down the line.

Because it doesn’t show what you want? 

[shaky]

Gfs mean and control much better than the op!!expect a better 00z i think!!

[Allseasons-Si]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

As said it is all down to Atlantic lows GFS keeps main low intact, doesn’t send off a cut off low which digs to our SW - I’m not sure why you are assuming ECM which was on extreme end, is right? What GFS shows is more plausible really. I wouldn’t say any model has best idea ECM has been rather inconsistent. 

Has it!

the ECM mean over the last few days has been more consistent than the gefs/gfs,i get that the Atlantic influence  might win out but in the nearer time there is plenty of fine weather to be had

i don't judge folk.i judge the models

we all want hp in charge and the models/anomaly's are showing that at the moment

whether that will be the outcome is anyone's guess 

what i am saying is that people  will look for a break down and that might happen and i will be the first to find this as it heralds a break down to thunderstorms but i equally would love for a far more settled spell,there is no happy medium with the weather and everyone has there different preferences .

Edited May 13, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

The op run is defo outlier tonight. Way over progressive with the Atlantic. 

Gfs opp run in black

18z ens

[MKN]

Its starting to go very wrong on the gfs quite early 96-120 period so i would expect this stand off so to speak to be resolved by tomorrow evening/Friday morning at the latest. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

The op run is defo outlier tonight. Way over progressive with the Atlantic. 

Gfs opp run in black

18z ens

Steady mean at +6/+7 850 hpa

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Its starting to go very wrong on the gfs quite early 96-120 period so i would expect this stand off so to speak to be resolved by tomorrow evening/Friday morning at the latest. 

Way too progressive in forecasting Atlantic. 

[Guest]

It’s not a pretty sight this morning, GFS, GEM, Icon all more progressive post T144 with varying degrees of the overall Atlantic trough being much closer to the UK bringing more unsettled conditions which also would not preceded by any widespread thundery breakdown as there’s no warm air advected in at all. UKMO at T144 probably looks the best although even here looks as though heights are weakening. Let’s see what the ECM brings but I’d be very surprised if it was anything remotely like last nights 12z. 
Good agreement as well in the GFS ensembles from around the 21st of much more unsettled conditions, only two from the 20 members keep high pressure in charge. 

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Guest

[Djdazzle]

If GFS had this correct, I think the ECM will have taken a massive hit in terms of credibility.

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 00Z ensembles are nae bad; a bit of something for everyone?

    

    

Nowt to be sniffed-at at this time of year...And defo, not to be read as gospel!

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If GFS had this correct, I think the ECM will have taken a massive hit in terms of credibility.

There’s always going to varying degrees of success, ECM is usually the most consistent of the models however didn’t stop it being behind the curve with the three major hot spells last summer which GFS was all over and plucked out the first two over ten days out. 
 

ECM out to 144 looks similar to UKMO and at 168 retains high pressure in control to our east but as it’s further north less advection of warmer air. It’s a better run so far than the other models.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Guest