Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GEM / ICON also not going with GFS.

hoping due to time of year GFS is wrong, Atlantic weather rare now, not as though its Nov to Feb, or Jul/Aug

[Djdazzle]

Only thing I will say is that there is a little more influence from the LP across most models, but the GFS takes the extreme option.

[Griff]

25 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I took a peek at the GFS 00Z expecting to see a train of 'dartboard' lows traversing Blighty, only to discover that Monday and Tuesday of next week still look okay:

    

But Day 10 is where I become a tad schizophrenic: do I want some heat or do I want the rain. But, then, we are talking 'Day 10' here!

    

And lastly, the temperature ensembles:

    

And the T850 mean holds up (is the op throwing a tantrum?) at around +5C which, for late May, isn't really all that bad? So, I'll no' be getting to downhearted by just one run. As one of those eponymous 'gardeners and growers' two important considerations are satisfied by this run: some much-needed rain and an end to overnight frosts...

Daytime sunshine and night time downpours? 

I keep confusing living in Oxfordshire with the tropics! 

As someone currently challenged by garden frost damage, or battling to prevent it, yes I know it's still only May, warmth is always welcomed, but already casting an eye towards near term rainfall forecasts. 

Amen bro! 

[Guest]

GEM absolutely the pick of the bunch this morning and develops a proper plume towards the end which would absolutely go bang!

GFS output isn't ideal is it, whereas yesterday the Ops run post the 21st was a big outlier in the unsettled stakes this morning there is tight grouping of ensembles that all have the Atlantic barrelling in. Majority of the other models remain more settled for long however all appear to have a slight untick the Atlantic. So GFS trend setter or outlier?

[Andy Bown]

Just remember several weeks ago the models showed the Atlantic was going to take charge but in reality there was an unsettled week under slacker low pressure rather than low after low. Before that the Easter weekend was going to turn quickly unsettled but it took until the Monday then it was just a cool down.

So if an Atlantic takeover is shown from mid next week then it’s probably going to be the weekend in 10 days time at the earliest, or just a slack low situation again.

The same applies to how hot or plumey it might get too. In reality we generally end up in the middle, kind of like this week which while cool isn’t anywhere near as cold widely as was shown just a week ago!

[mb018538]

Theres certainly some ECM ensemble interest for unsettled weather to move in by day 8-10 now. The OP stays on the decent side for longer, but there are also members looking more like GFS. A bit of a worry at this stage. 

[Azazel]

My fault guys - last night after viewing the broad model consensus that we were in for a lovely spell of weather, I sent a message to my friends saying ‘wahey, summer’s coming!’ 

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

My fault guys - last night after viewing the broad model consensus that we were in for a lovely spell of weather, I sent a message to my friends saying ‘wahey, summer’s coming!’ 

I wouldn't worry for now. More runs needed!

[tight isobar]

I think we need a reminder..of the gfs under=over phasing...with dealing with pressure points...especially at a transferable stage..(as now)..with miss dynamic @Atlantic barrelling..and mass eastwards correction=miss -correction of heights out east...and I'm sure this will be somewhat  adjusted through today's outs!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM mean is still looking good folks with plenty of fine and warm weather to be had,day 9-10 shows some sort of a break down with possible but that's miles away

and what is the gfs up to?

well we know that it over blows the situation,mostly

enjoy your day everyone...

 later

 

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z okay on Day 5...But, given it's changeover time (and annoying bits of cold air are still on walkabout) the 'reliable' period may be a tad shorter than usual?

    

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Gfs looks 6z looks better Atlantic looks further west at 174hr. High pressure better positioned than 00z sorry can't upload pics

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Gfs defo. Overplaying Atlantic in my opinion 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Gfs defo. Overplaying Atlantic in my opinion 

Seems to really blow up low pressure from here. Doesn’t look bad there, but a day later it’s very unsettled. Strange?

[Scorcher]

The GFS 06Z looks better to me than the earlier run in many ways, and slightly closer to the ECM. It's looking more and more likely that we will see at the very least 3 very warm days next week starting from Tuesday. Hopefully we will get a lot more than that too. 

It looks to me like there isn't much oomph from the Atlantic at all- it's very quiet really and I wouldn't be surprised to see that trough hold out to our west for quite a bit longer than the GFS is suggesting.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Gfs defo. Overplaying Atlantic in my opinion 

12z will look even better. Atlantic struggling to get thru. Bit of uncertainty from the gfs but I think it will slowly backtrack next few runs. To be more in line with other models

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Seems to really blow up low pressure from here. Doesn’t look bad there, but a day later it’s very unsettled. Strange?

Not strange for the GFS though - it's well-known for doing this!

[Methuselah]

Get in!    

Get lost!

Edited May 13, 2020 by General Cluster

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, Scorcher said:

The GFS 06Z looks better to me than the earlier run in many ways, and slightly closer to the ECM. It's looking more and more likely that we will see at the very least 3 very warm days next week starting from Tuesday. Hopefully we will get a lot more than that too. 

It looks to me like there isn't much oomph from the Atlantic at all- it's very quiet really and I wouldn't be surprised to see that trough hold out to our west for quite a bit longer than the GFS is suggesting.

Yes very much my opinion too. Gfs always overplays the Atlantic. Its will. Slowly get better and up to speed. Can see a very good evening run on its way. Ensemble now probs show a better pic when come out. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Shows a little low develop over us at 216 hour then back to this

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

West v East Battle on its way. Hot settled weather east v cool Unsettled weather west. 

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

West v East Battle on its way. Hot settled weather east v cool Unsettled weather west. 

Highly likely reflected in the 6z=ens..@London @Aberdeen..

North \South devide!..

the Atlantic sourcing tight in arching the high..and enloping northern most parts..

*however*..a developing evolution...and HP infiltration looks good for latter progression..

the 500,a @geopotentials should offer up some more clarifications!..through suites..

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by tight isobar

[Leo97t]

Latest BBC monthly supportive of a GFS 06z like plume and repeat set up . Not looking at all bad and should see some good corrections on both the GFS and ECM tonight towards a high to the Dogger Bank region.

[Zak M]

Well that was unexpected! 

      

[Djdazzle]

GFS 6z mean shows that the OP was a very progressive option.