Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[carinthian]

On 09/05/2020 at 21:03, carinthian said:

Still too chilly here @Mike Poole to drink beer outside . Snow patches lingering in the garden. Just want warmth now at this time of year . Will be a bit of a shock tomorrow and into Monday , especially over England and Wales with that cold blast. Not sure it will get as far as the Eastern Alps but snow is still forecast for a time on Tuesday. We will see.  Looking at sunshine totals over much of the kingdom , you lot are doing very well. Hope it continues and ECM run verifies for a return of warmth. 

C

Morning all , well the forecast snow did arrive on time to the hour ! Picture below taken at 1350m asL. So cold Arctic air into the Eastern Alps for a short period by the looks of it. Models into next week firming up on a return to warmer conditions, especially Western Europe and much of the British Isles with May sunshine totals looking impressive for you lot following on from the very sunny April gone.

C

Edited May 12, 2020 by carinthian

[mb018538]

ECM is glorious again today. Looking more and more likely that we will see some warm or very warm weather in the UK next week. Cool for the next 2-3 days, then back to what we’ve enjoyed most of spring so far - sunshine and warmth.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the 0z output and in this case the GEFS 0z I have a good feeling about our weather prospects for the second half / last third of May and hopefully into summer too!..I think the Azores high has a big part to play and also some plume potential!..watch this space!

[johnholmes]

With GFS at 500 mb now looking very similar to EC and NOAA I think we can expect the 500 mb pattern to be much as is shown below, so ridging taking over as the main upper air feature. This for the 6-10 day period and the NOAA 8-14 shows a similar pattern.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

[Djdazzle]

GFS 6z very much in line with the 0z offering. Great run for settled, and increasingly warm, weather.

[Zak M]

Stunning GFS 06z! 

      

[tight isobar]

So...after this week..(even into the weekend)..

HP sourcing- becomes steadfast...and with still ample apply=evolve for PLUME reaction...nevertheless it's dry...sunny warm=very warm setting up...

Away from the far north\northwest which remains somewhat more Atlantic sourced..although as we gain the door opens further for the country as a whole..@warm dry conditions.

Any nudging around the azores \iberian geographicals...Will likely take us into early summer paradise synoptic!..

Anyway if summer type weather is your preferred....then all the fruits are dropping into place...and the jackpot awaits the drop...

 

Enjoy your day....

Edited May 12, 2020 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

With my optimistic hat on!..looking at the GEFS 6z towards the cusp of the meteorological summer, things could be preety good..perhaps the Azores will be our friend?!

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Benny123]

Anybody got ideas what is causing this persistent ridging pattern over NW Europe? I'm not complaining, just seems unusual. 

[Guest]

Well following the utterly depressing (if completely expected) announcement that summer foreign holidays are a no go I get the feeling this thread will be chaos for the next three as the majority will be looking for warm/hot weather. Let’s hope the current blocked outlook can remain through as much of summer as possible. 

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z temp. ensembles are nae too bad, either!

    

[shaky]

Hmmm gfs gone of on one here at t192 hours!!no where near as strong a pressure build as the last few runs!!!hopefully an outlier!!

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmmm gfs gone of on one here at t192 hours!!no where near as strong a pressure build as the last few runs!!!hopefully an outlier!!

I would expect so. It’s far too progressive.

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmmm gfs gone of on one here at t192 hours!!no where near as strong a pressure build as the last few runs!!!hopefully an outlier!!

I think it’s certain to be an outlier as it’s so different from the previous two runs. The ECM had a wobble last night before coming back on board today.

[Zak M]

Yeah, quite certain the GFS 12z is an outlier. Well, I hope so.

Let's see what the GEM and the ECM have to offer.

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I would expect so. It’s far too progressive.

Probably but ECM 00z was going to go on to bowl +ve heights east as well. 

[Methuselah]

Agreed, guys: very likely an outlier...But, I think I'd welcome some rain (it's fast turning into a dustbowl, hereabouts) and south-westerlies around a big depression can often produce some lovely skyscapes...?

    

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Probably but ECM 00z was going to go on to bowl +ve heights east as well. 

At T240, anything can happen. The GFS starts to lose the plot at 180, which would seem to be at odds with virtually all other output.

[mb018538]

GEM still holding strong. UKMO looks ok up to 144. ECM will be interesting tonight!

[Djdazzle]

GFS mean looks much better than the Op run up to T240, and doesn't have the low barrelling through.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The GFS 12Z mean is a peach.. High pressure is pretty much in control right out to the end of the run.. Eyes down for another positive ECM. 

[mb018538]

 

Phew - outlier as we suspected. As you were everyone!

[Mike Poole]

Yes, wobble from the GFS today, it seems more prone to these than the other models, maybe just because it runs twice as often.  UKMO looks solid, GEM the pick so far:

I do like the facility to be able to do a GIF out to T240 on the GEM...

Very interested to see ECM take on things shortly, I expect it to follow GEM, but we will see...

[Guest]

Well that's quite progressive from the GFS 12Z isn't it, its Ops run is certainly in the bottom tercile of the ensembles right through to the end of the run from the 20th May.  UKMO looking better at T144 with GEM living up to its namesake and having nothing to do with the GFS wobble producing a belter of a run. Too early to tell where ECM is heading...…..

[cheshire snow]

Just to add the METO extended forecast is fantastic for warmer conditions the word hot is also mentioned for the south and east.

C.S