Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Mr Frost]

Very average run from the ECM this morning - I’ll give it a 6 out of 10!  (Plenty of dry weather about at least)

Let’s get the below average/average weather out the way before Summer arrives! 

 

 

Just on a side note here is the Met Office regional forecast for my area today/tonight!  (House is by the sea so lovely rain for me no doubt. )

Today:

Last of the recent warm days. A mix of sunshine and showers, with outbreaks isolated through the morning, increasing during the afternoon. Winds light and variable. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Tonight:

Rainband soon spreading from the north, which clears to south overnight as it turns wintry to relatively low levels on retreating back edge, as cold freshening northeast wind sets in. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Quite the diurnal temperature range. 

Got to love the Spring season! One extreme to the other - even in the second week of May! 

All the best to you all and have a great weekend! 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM OP is a lot better than yesterday's dire runs and it's in situ with it's ens,the mean still looking good too

i just hope the ECM/ens are right and the gfs are playing catch up but the gefs ens are a tad better than yesterday's too

it's the last fine day today so make the most of theshine but watch out for those heavy showers then it's all downhill then so time to get some jobs done around the hoose

have a good day everyone

laters.

 

 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean shows a good recovery post cool plunge!

[Methuselah]

Tuesday could be a good day for brass monkeys; the perfect opportunity for recovering their balls!

    

[Methuselah]

A plume in the offing? If so, then I'll take it!

    

I think it is!

    

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by General Cluster

[Djdazzle]

The latter stages of the last few runs of the GFS have been quite consistent in showing high pressure taking a strong hold around the U.K.

[Zak M]

The GFS on day 13 is an absolute stonker!! 

   

Edited May 9, 2020 by Zak M

[Zak M]

Low chance of verifying obviously, but you certainly don't see temps like this often, especially at this time of year... 

   

[Zak M]

@tomp456 Will this satisfy you??

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

-6 850 hpa reaching the south coast on Monday 

[Frosty.]

WOW this is just like ...so awesome, wow I sound american!

Edited May 9, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Scorcher]

29 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Low chance of verifying obviously, but you certainly don't see temps like this often, especially at this time of year... 

   

Talk about deep in FI...but we can dream! That would smash many local all time records for May. Away from the SE it has been historically difficult to get close to 30C in May.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Let's see if we can get trend on the plume situation/high pressure FI devolopement  in the mean time enjoy today. And let's see what happens 

[Zak M]

The GFS ens look good, especially the operational, but it's more of a mess from day 10 onwards!

Edited May 9, 2020 by Zak M

[Methuselah]

The dog-end of today's GEFS 06Z ensembles simply scream 'Yeah, right!'

    

    

At least it looks like being dry?

[tight isobar]

Good afternoon from costa del Uxbridge..@scorchio..data sets an ALL round yes yes yes for a mid=late May stonker.

thermo dys @2m are impressive @later may...and American seaboard \Atlantic influence also playing ball for HP=plume sequence...

the 500*geopots matching the sync too...

some impressive data to say the least atm, for sun =heat lovers!

the spreads need eyeing obviously as a continuous trend...but certainly being flagged a lot just now...

the cooler blip merely looking as a transfer after sequence for the honeypot synoptics...and hopefully fruition...later May one to watch...as some records (at the minute)..would likely succumbe....should we get to the points in question...

 

@stay well @ stay safe

 

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z longer term...despite some cack, there is some nice potential too..not just the operational then!!!..I will take P9 preety please with a cherry on top..but only if I can’t have the op!!!

Edited May 9, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Nigerian Prince]

2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

-6 850 hpa reaching the south coast on Monday 

Amazing! We struggled to see that last December, January and February,

Gender Male  Location Battersea London..

[tomp456]

3 hours ago, Zak M said:

@tomp456 Will this satisfy you??

If some of those yellows and reds get to the south coast and it verifies, I’ll be a happy bunny. 

[SMU]

Updated 12z ICON

 

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated 12z ICON

 

I’ll have some of what Greece is having..thanks!

[Gowon]

4 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

-6 850 hpa reaching the south coast on Monday 

Yep, and wind chill of 0c I'll have to get my long johns back out come Monday morning!

[Dorsetbred]

6 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Yep, and wind chill of 0c I'll have to get my long johns back out come Monday morning!

Hah, you're in the warm spot, Dartmoor is NOT the place to be look at how cold it is there -123°C !

 

Oops my bad that should be -1.23°C

Edited May 9, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[Zak M]

GFS 12z is showing a plume on day 11 - but on the wrong side of us. At least we would get some settled weather though!

Edited May 9, 2020 by Zak M

[Mr Frost]

@Zak M I would say there is more chance of us all getting a delivery of these Spanish plum tomatoes than there is of a Spanish Plume arriving this month.

 

GFS 12Z (Lovely charts if it was Winter - typical really )

 

 

 

Below average/average with some days a couple of degrees above average in places, wet at times, chilly nights now and then but plenty of dry weather also. (Will all be different once again on the next run )

Basically a standard UK and Ireland Spring month.  (It is only May after all)

As I said previously - let’s keep the heat and fireworks for June, July and August. 

Have a good night all.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Mr Frost