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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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But the GFS seems to have pretty-much ditched the very cold northerlies altogether...? But I did find the potential for some interesting convection, way out in La La Land: at T+339, to be exact!:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, thankfully, the GEFS 00Z ensembles back up this 'theory'!:shok:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Which all means (when viewed under the microscope of Sod's Law) only one thing: GET THOSE SKIS WAXED!?:yahoo::crazy:

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Hum.... -10c uppers in May !

A6198C75-25A8-4CFF-A7CD-4731124EFAE1.thumb.jpeg.699235452471e7cef63561e87258049b.jpegAB141137-5E82-434E-A7BF-8EB0821888A4.thumb.jpeg.737a5a9567a5ee8811441e8139cdb75d.jpeg

 

?

Wow chance of seeing snow on my birthday?

 

Seen ECM do this plenty of times  before then drop the idea as it moves into the reliable timeframe.

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The 0z Euro runs of recent days look to have won out with all models now showing the breakdown at day 6.

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The GFS then moves at least three lows right through the UK over the next week. 

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Well at least one thing looks normal - GFS being much more progressive with the Atlantic lows than ECM!

Very different outcomes for the UK. ECM colder and then much drier, transitioning the mid-Atlantic arm of the HLB into an impressively strong mid-Atlantic high with some subtropical linkage. Good way to set up a lengthy dry, if not necessarily warm, run of weather.

GFS displaying its usual enthusiasm for setting up a relatively strong, flat yet south-displaced jet stream whenever Arctic blocking shows up in the   8-16 day range. I suppose one day it’ll prove to have the right idea...

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Posted (edited)

The ECM 0z ensemble mean isn’t quite as full on as the op with the cold plunge post high pressure due to ensemble spread dilution but it does indicate an influx of colder air from the north, however, there is an olive branch by day 10 with ridging from the Azores...so, ultimately it may not be as bad as some hope... or fear..most of the week ahead looks nice whatever subsequently transpires!??

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Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted (edited)

Well there is little help from the 500 mb anomaly charts this morning as you can see in the links below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

About the only similar ity above is the position and depth of the 500 mb upper low over N America. The rest is pretty different.

Turning to NOAA and it , to me, looks rather more like EC than GFS; on that basis one would expect the 6-10 day outlook at 500 mb to be more like them than GFS.

We shall see.

Just to add the change over from winter to summer and then the summer to winter patterns are always less reliable in the upper atmosphere than the rest of the year. The autumn one is even more complicated as it, at the start, is complicated by the Hurricane season for the N Atlantic.

Edited by johnholmes
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Divergence in the models this morning just outside the reliable timeframe, so time for them to come back together in next few runs. In the short-term, a bit of a mixed bag, generally fine settled and pleasant in the main, but a few differences. Tomorrow will bring more cloud and drizzly stuff to the east, whilst in the SW cloud builds ahead of a front due to bring some rain Monday/Tuesday, thanks to a frontal activity how far north this gets is questionable as heights will be building and dropping through the UK - not a substantive build of robust heights though, 1025 mb is preety strong, but its a high which looks like being swamped by other major forces as the week wears on.

These forces are the result of changes in the northern hemispheric profile coming courtesy of the annual collapse of the PV. ECM continues to show a strong build of pressure out of the arctic joining hands with the ridge next week, to produce extensive heights to our NW and a surge of cold arctic air. GFS instead is making more of the atlantic and showing a rather messy complex situation with low heights building to the SW on a southerly jet making a beeline for the UK, ushering in a cyclonic spell, but with heights to the east, we may draw in some warmer uppers from the south. 

The Ensembles would back up the ECM evolution, UKMO also going with this, the change to take place on Friday as heights advect back to the NW, still time for them to change.

This is not an easy time to predict overall synoptics - time of year when expected normal patterns are often flipped on the head, and when we should expect our most extreme and anomalous outcomes compared to the normal westerly atlantic. Therefore a long drawn sustained arctic flow at this time of year has higher chances of verifying than any other time of year.

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Posted (edited)

GFS 06Z at Day 10...Blizzards incoming!:oldlaugh:

              h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Day 12:  h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

Day 16:  h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

I guess the weather will just do what it does, in the end. But the modelling is on something of a tightrope!?:crazy:

Edited by General Cluster
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7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

GFS 06Z at Day 10...Blizzards incoming!:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

You seem to have a funny idea of which way winds blow round weather systems!

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

You seem to have a funny idea of which way winds blow round weather systems!

Maybe thinks he’s in the Southern Hemisphere! ??

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

You seem to have a funny idea of which way winds blow round weather systems!

I was trying to be ironic, John!:oldlaugh:

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Just now, General Cluster said:

I was trying to be ironic, John!:oldlaugh:

I assumed so but just to clear things for newcomers!

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Lol, the ECM at 192 pushes the -5c uppers past the south coast while -10c uppers reach northern Scotland, Christ we didn't manage that all winter!,

Andy

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Is that a plume just scraping us on day 11?!

1729020241_h500slp(5).thumb.png.3ef5091bd278b4376ad2cbfd4ed99d7c.png   424119411_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.7d6a8b562422c49a18b9c509df4c3aae.png

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38 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

I wouldn’t pay any attention to those cold charts, they are out of any reliable timeframe 

Yes, but how typical would it be for them to actually verify!

Andy

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Well there aren't that many unseasonably cold runs in today's 06Z ensembles...

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

But then, there's little sign of an impending heatwave, either.

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A fair few 6Z ens keeping us under High Pressure next weekend, and some also showing a drift from the Continent... That's a decent direction away from Eastern coastal areas, and always a drier airmass.. Next weekend Is far from a done deal... Come to think of it neither is next week... Even today is wide of the mark for here... I give in. ?? Enjoy ya Sundays and stay Home.. Hopefully I will get chance to fire up the barbi sometime next week. 

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GFS 06Z says absolutely no to the northerly plunge, excellent ensembles agreement all of a sudden through the next week. With the Ops run still in the bottom tercile of the ensemble grouping its not unreasonable to say 25C isn't out of the question again Friday & Saturday, possibly Sunday as well given the Ops run is a massive wet outlier. Brucey bonus time given the switching of the Bank Holiday weekend!

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well there aren't that many unseasonably cold runs in today's 06Z ensembles...

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

But then, there's little sign of an impending heatwave, either.

The mean is noticeably higher than it was a couple of days ago

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