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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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ECM is truly awful at day 7-10 tonight. You can still get decent weather in an -NAO set up, but that certainly isn’t it! GEM isn’t bad in comparison. More than likely an unsettled outlier.

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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Looking at the 0z output, next week certainly becomes more settled for a time as high pressure builds in bringing a spell of fine and hopefully sunnier conditions but further ahead, using the ECM 0z operational as an example, heights being sucked NW towards Greenland and an unseasonably cool / cold plunge from the N/NE..if it was winter I would just know it would downgrade to zilch but now it’s May so will surely verify!??

BB82BA2C-CF36-4565-A709-6D7BC96B66C1.thumb.png.2665862847150e4fcd778f66bba15375.png80CC0C01-47E0-4FED-8E71-3786365A5851.thumb.png.c2b8d89230f2b74ae838ace5d962a2a8.png2EA06AEC-BD9B-4E51-8FE0-E4F7E10EB713.thumb.png.bf2dfdc66c7994f6ea6f13106de421dc.png7A3B0A55-F1B5-45A2-B5C1-146D6541D3AB.thumb.png.96d674935c0a260f8b7d46036f4489b9.png22926C22-916A-45DD-A9FD-CF44C45F0F72.thumb.png.e9d19fd6479cfe21cfe9e99a61967cce.png81FCC9D4-5A1C-44F1-B2D4-C5C87E7C5CF6.thumb.png.a956577e203a5dcd790c700fb39b8e9d.pngCB849632-F65B-4E3F-98AC-24CF802EDCF0.thumb.png.faa3f8f25667bd0deb5758fdb8ede516.png

 

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Anywho, it's good to see that this morning's GFS 00Z is not as bad as one or two previous efforts:?

T+96   h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+240 h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+312 h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384 h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A definite frost-risk, yes; but, at least the tunnel may not be as long as previously feared?:oldgood:

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25 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Anywho, it's good to see that this morning's GFS 00Z is not as bad as one or two previous efforts:?

T+96   h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+240 h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+312 h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384 h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A definite frost-risk, yes; but, at least the tunnel may not be as long as previously feared?:oldgood:

Looks like my seedlings survived a low of 4c over night without any fuss, but please, no lower thanks ?

In winter there's always talk of any cold from the east mixing out with warmth off the Atlantic, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially as daytime temperatures are increasing with the warmer sun, but likely radiation cooling by clear nights still a factor??? 

 

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Fascinating how GFS has now spent two full days of runs resolutely going against the major Arctic blocking development, closing the door on it by +168 hours, having been the first model to predict it four days ago.

Meanwhile, ever since GFS dropped it, ECM has been taking it to staggering extremes. Would be quite something to experience - but potentially very damaging to sensitive wildlife (mainly some plants and insects) via overnight frost and possibly even some snow in the north.

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22 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Fascinating how GFS has now spent two full days of runs resolutely going against the major Arctic blocking development, closing the door on it by +168 hours, having been the first model to predict it four days ago.

Meanwhile, ever since GFS dropped it, ECM has been taking it to staggering extremes. Would be quite something to experience - but potentially very damaging to sensitive wildlife (mainly some plants and insects) via overnight frost and possibly even some snow in the north.

Think we will end up somewhere in the middle in the end or something like the gfs!ecm had a habit of over amplifying things all winter!!

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Apart from a blip on Tuesday - Thursday it really has been an incredible spell here in NW which is not always the case. From the model output, it looks like another lovely spell this coming week. Comfortable enough to sit out in my garden this morning with a light t-shirt. 
 

Hope the cold spell following on is mixed out as it would be in winter ?

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2 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Hope the cold spell following on is mixed out as it would be in winter ?

Despite some support for chillier weather, with the way things have gone that wouldn’t be too surprising. ?

Is the thing with these Northerlies and such, they often seem to have this habit of doing the disappearing spell as they head closer into the reliable time frame.

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39 minutes ago, shaky said:

Think we will end up somewhere in the middle in the end 

That’s a preety obvious conclusion and probably will turn out correct since the more extreme outcomes rarely if ever verify!?

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Posted (edited)

The ECM has a habit of generating extreme runs in FI, as we have seen in winter many times over. The GFS flips and flaps like washing on the line in a gale.

Looks like turning chillier for a time. Longer term, who knows? Let’s hope the Azores high starts to assert itself from mid month onwards.

Edited by Djdazzle
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ECM is well off the pace again today, so we will ignore for now. Hard to know the extent of any northern blocking and the effects in the UK this far away. The end of next week looks very nice though, back up to 20-22c Thursday to Saturday. Very good for early May. Typical the bank holiday looks good (like Easter and Mothering Sunday) now we are in lockdown. Law of sod striking with a vengeance this year! 

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Not quite sure why we'd want to 'ignore' the ECM, whatever it says? But, anywho, the GFS 06Z isn't all that bad, at Day 10...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It could be a lot worse!:oldgood:

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14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not quite sure why we'd want to 'ignore' the ECM, whatever it says? But, anywho, the GFS 06Z isn't all that bad, at Day 10...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It could be a lot worse!:oldgood:

E173AB8B-8E7F-4780-AEA5-811C7256EA30.thumb.png.78efc8b8180ac158151257ce8c07ca0b.png0C1CE1FD-9578-49F9-94EC-18B8BD16D868.thumb.png.89a4973ecfba7b704ca20c73e0d4b86f.png

 

When the op run looks like that, I’d say you are better off not giving it too much weight!

6072651D-9C81-4F91-92F4-D47DDDB87B50.png

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If you like warmth, then Thursday next week could be your day... :oldgood:

1551054173_h500slp(3).thumb.png.50108e1ddb43d757c0e3fb8bea57341d.png   1073425290_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.ee2d94325233aad049b68c2340094fa3.png

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25 minutes ago, Zak M said:

If you like warmth, then Thursday next week could be your day... :oldgood:

1551054173_h500slp(3).thumb.png.50108e1ddb43d757c0e3fb8bea57341d.png   1073425290_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.ee2d94325233aad049b68c2340094fa3.png

You know people are desperate for warmth when 15-17c is considered good, it's below average t-max temperature in may for UK

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5 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

You know people are desperate for warmth when 15-17c is considered good, it's below average t-max temperature in may for UK

Bare in mind that the GFS sometimes underestimates temperatures so in some places they will be a couple of degrees warmer.

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16 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

You know people are desperate for warmth when 15-17c is considered good, it's below average t-max temperature in may for UK

For most of country it’s average if above the upper limit, using Greenwich climate data which is warmest in country for May, average max is 18.1C, early in month in London should be around 16C. It is not that warm a month. I think we have been fortunate in recent years, 2018 was incredible but it is certainly a spring month. It has also warmed the least out of all spring months. While the warmest Aprils have heavily been observed in last 16 years. Aprils of 2003, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2020 are all in the top ten warmest. The top 5 warmest Mays (CET) all occurred in 18th and 18th century, apart from 1992 which is joint fifth with 1727. Strange one.

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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will order a number 12 please .

image.thumb.png.b4548f2d30ead0036bc7d1d64f4ebdcc.png

If it was winter, yes! Only a sadist would want that to come off in May! ?

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22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will order a number 12 please .

image.thumb.png.b4548f2d30ead0036bc7d1d64f4ebdcc.png

Your on ya own there mate.. Bring me that in December or January... But I understand your a cold lover through and through.. At anytime of the year, so as always I respect your posts.. ?☀️?

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

Your on ya own there mate.. Bring me that in December or January... But I understand your a cold lover through and through.. At anytime of the year, so as always I respect your posts.. ?☀️?

It might keep the idiots indoors though.

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